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The Arizona Diamondbacks (55-50) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-52) to Chase Field Sunday for the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 2-0
The Pirates lost the series opener 4-3 Friday as +148 underdogs. They were again defeated 9-5 Saturday, failing to cash as +161 underdogs.
Pittsburgh is 26-26 on the road this season and 5-3 over its last 8 away games. The Pirates have played well over the last few weeks, winning 8 of their last 12 games.
The Diamondbacks, who are 28-24 at home this season, are riding a 4-game win streak, scoring 4 or more runs in each victory. They are 10-3 over their last 13 games and 55-50 against the spread (ATS) this season.
Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Yilber Diaz
Keller (10-5, 3.34 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 121 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 home win over St. Louis Cardinals Monday
- 2024 away splits: 5-3, 4.04 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 6 HR, 8.1 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0, 2.45 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 3 starts
Diaz (1-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9 through 15 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 K in 10-4 road loss to Kansas City Royals Monday
- 2024 home splits: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 1 HR, 5.3 K/9 in 2 starts
- Never faced Pirates before
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates -102 (bet $102 to win $100) | Diamondbacks -116 (bet $116 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Pirates -1.5 (+155) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-188)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 4, Diamondbacks 3
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (-102).
The Pirates have consistently won with Keller on the mound, winning 5 of his last 6 starts and 14 of his 20 on the season. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 3 straight starts, and the team has allowed 4 or fewer runs in each of those games. The Pirates haven’t been swept in a 3-game series since late April either.
The Diamondbacks haven’t completed a sweep since early May. They have won 4 of their last 6 games but have allowed 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 5, which could be problematic given the difference in pitching to start this battle.
With those trends in mind, take PIRATES (-102).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s not much value here. The Pirates are too risky to take as run-line favorites, while the Diamondbacks are too expensive to play as run-line underdogs, especially considering they’ve won 4 in a row.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).
The Diamondbacks have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 8 games and are 3-5 O/U over that span.
The Pirates have gone Under in 6 of their last 7 games and allowed 2 or fewer 4 times over that span. They are 46-55-3 O/U on the season. Pittsburgh’s offense has struggled as well, scoring just 16 runs over its last 6 games.
Take UNDER 8.5 (-110).
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