Tag: Pirates Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (37-41) and Cincinnati Reds (37-41) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Pirates lost 11-5 as +122 underdogs in the series opener Monday as the Over (9.5) hit. Pittsburgh has lost 3 of its last 4 games.

Reds SS Elly De La Cruz drove in 3 runs, including a 2-run HR in the 6th inning. LF Spencer Steer also had 3 RBIs for Cincinnati, which cashed as a -132 favorite.

Pirates at Reds projected starters

RHP Mitch Keller vs. RHP Hunter Greene

Keller (8-4, 3.11 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 92 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 1-0 home victory vs. Reds Wednesday
• 2024 road stats: 4-3, 3.83 ERA (47 IP, 20 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Reds: 2-4, 5.45 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.56 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 15 starts

Greene (5-2, 3.35 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 88 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K in Wednesday’s loss at Pittsburgh
• 2024 home stats: 2-2, 4.02 ERA (47 IP, 21 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Pirates: 0-2, 1.55 ERA (29 IP, 5 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 13.0 K/9 in 5 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Pirates at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Reds -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-190) | Reds -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Pirates 3

Moneyline

The REDS (-125) should pick up where they left off in Monday’s win. Greene has allowed a total of just 2 runs over his last 2 starts (11 1/3 IP), and Pittsburgh is averaging just 2.5 runs over its last 6 games.

BET REDS (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

The Pirates +1.5 (-190) will likely hit, but it’s hard to beat MLB long term laying -190 on 35-cent lines.

PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.

Over/Under

Greene has allowed just 2 runs in 11 1/3 IP over his last 2 starts, and Keller has given up a total of just 4 runs over his last 3 outings (19 IP). The Pirates have scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of their last 6 games, while the Reds have put up 4 or fewer in 7 of their last 9.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (37-40) visit the Cincinnati Reds (36-41) on Monday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 2-1

Pittsburgh lost 3-1 to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday while failing to cover as a -165 home favorite. LF Bryan Reynolds had the team’s only RBI with a solo HR. RHP Paul Skenes allowed just 1 ER in 7 IP while striking out 8.

Cincinnati has lost back-to-back games after losing 7-4 against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday as a -152 home favorite. LHP Nick Lodolo allowed 3 ER in 4 2/3 IP to take the loss.

Pirates at Reds projected starters

LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Carson Spiers

Falter (3-5, 3.74 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.38 BB/9 and 5.90 K/9 in 79 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss against the  Reds Tuesday
• Career vs. Reds: 0-2, 6.29 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 30 H, 6 BB, 18 K in 4 starts

Spiers (0-1, 3.20 ERA) makes his 2nd start and 6th appearance. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 1.78 BB/9 and 7.11 K/9 in 25 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-1 loss at Pirates Monday; 1st time he faced Pittsburgh
• Has allowed 9 ER, walked 5 and struck out 20 in 6 games

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Pirates at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:38 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+150) | Reds +1.5 (-185)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 4, Pirates 3

Moneyline

BET REDS (-115).

Cincinnati is 5-4 in its last 9 games at home and has scored 3 or more runs in 8 of the 9. The Reds have scored 4 or more runs in 2 of their last 3 games while allowing 4 or fewer runs twice in the same span. Pittsburgh has lost 3 of its last 5 and has scored 3 runs or fewer in 4 of its last 5 games, including 1 run or fewer runs in 3 of its last 5.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is better value on the moneyline in this matchup.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9.5 (+100).

Both teams have hit the Under in 8 of the last 10 games. Pittsburgh has scored 4 runs or fewer in 8 of its last 10 games, including 1 run in 3 of its last 4, while allowing 3 runs or fewer in 7 of its last 9 games. Cincinnati has scored 4 runs or fewer in 8 of its last 10 games while allowing 3 runs or fewer in 5 of its last 10.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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The Cincinnati Reds (79-77) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (74-81) to Great American Ball Park Sunday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 8-4

The Pirates rallied for a 13-12 victory as +117 underdogs Saturday after trailing 9-0 in the 4th inning. Pittsburgh has now won 4 straight outings despite being an underdog in each game and is 7-3 over its last 10 and 36-41 on the road this season.

The Reds need to get hot to get an NL Wild Card spot, as they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games. Cincinnati has lost 4 straight games and is 2 1/2 games back of the final playoff berth.

Pirates at Reds projected starters

RHP Quinn Priester vs. LHP Brandon Williamson

Priester (3-2, 8.61 ERA) makes his 7th start and 9th appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 38 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in a 7-2 road loss to the New York Mets on Aug. 14
• 2023 road stats: 1-1, 7.52 ERA in 20 1/3 IP over 3 starts and 4 appearances

Williamson (4-5, 4.56 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 106 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 8-4 road loss to the Mets Sunday
• 2023 home stats: 2-2, 4.24 ERA in 51 IP over 9 starts

Pirates at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Reds -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-115) | Reds -1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 8, Pirates 4

Moneyline

PASS.

The Reds should bounce back after blowing a 9-run lead to the Pirates Saturday. Williamson will have a significant pitching advantage, but there’s no value in backing Cincinnati (-190) on the moneyline.

Run line/Against the spread

BET REDS -1.5 (-105).

Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in cover rate as a road underdog, just 38-33 against the spread (ATS) this season. Cincinnati is 11-17 ATS as a home favorite and has a better ATS record than Pittsburgh in divisional games.

Cincinnati is on the cusp of an NL Wild Card spot and can’t afford to drop this game. After starting up 9-0 Saturday, a bounce-back performance with Williamson having had far more success on the mound than Priester seems likely.

Take REDS -1.5 (-105).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 11 (-105).

The bats have been hot, and the pitching hasn’t been great throughout this series. The Pirates won 7-5 Friday then 13-12 Saturday. The Reds have gone Over in 4 of their last 5 games with a total and in 2 straight Williamson starts.

Pittsburgh is 84-65-5 O/U on the season and has gone Over in 5 straight games. It has gone Over in 5 of Priester’s 6 starts. Take OVER 11 (-105).

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (73-81) and Cincinnati Reds (79-76) play the 2nd of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park Saturday. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 7-4

The Bucs have won 3 games in a row and are surging with 7 wins in the last 10 contests. They still sit 7 games out of an NL Wild Card spot with hope dwindling, but it has been a successful season for them. Pittsburgh is 18-12 over the last 30 games.

The Reds came of age as well this year, and they’re just 1 1/2 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. They need to turn it around though, as they’ve lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5. Cincinnati has actually been a better road team at 42-34 as opposed to 37-42 at home, but it has struggled at 19-28 within the NL Central.

Pirates at Reds projected starters

LHP Bailey Falter vs. RHP Connor Phillips

Falter (2-9, 4.58 ERA) makes his 14th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 78 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 1 IP, 2 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 1 K Tuesday against Chicago Cubs
• 2 career starts vs. Reds: 0-1, 5.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6 K in 9 2/3 IP

Phillips (1-0, 5.74 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 15 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K Monday against Minnesota Twins
• Is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 2 home starts

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Pirates at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 11 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Reds -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-165) | Reds -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 7, Pirates 5

Moneyline

This is going to be a battle. The Pirates have won 6 of their last 10 meetings with the Reds, but the Reds have taken 2 of the last 4. Cincinnati needs this series to stay in contention, and Pittsburgh took the opener Friday. Look for the Reds to come out early and put the pressure on.

Take the REDS (-135).

Run line/Against the spread

The Reds have been money on the run line this season at 93-61, including a 45-33 mark at home. Seven of the last 10 meetings between the teams have been decided by more than a run. Go easy, but I’ll take the REDS -1.5 (+140) for a HALF-UNIT due to the magnitude of this game.

Over/Under

The Pirates have scored 28 runs in their last 3 games. The Over is just 3-7 in the last 10 meetings between the teams, but it has hit in 3 of the last 4 games. We have two relative unknowns on the mound Saturday, and the ball really flies in GABP.

I’ll LEAN OVER 9.5 (-110).

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The Cincinnati Reds (79-75) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (72-81) to Great American Ball Park Friday. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 6-4

The Reds are 6-4 over their last 10 games and lost 2 of 3 games vs. the Minnesota Twins to start the week. Cincinnati lost 5-3 Wednesday as a -128 favorite to fall to 37-41 at home this season. The Reds are a half-game back of the Miami Marlins and Chicago Cubs for the final NL Wild Card.

The Pirates are 34-41 on the road and are also 6-4 over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh won 2 of 3 against the Cubs from Tuesday to Thursday, picking up the series finale 8-6 as a +151 underdog.

Pirates at Reds projected starters

RHP Luis Ortiz vs. LHP Andrew Abbott

Ortiz (4-5, 4.85 ERA) makes his 15th start and 17th appearance. He has a 1.73 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 through 78 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 6 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home loss vs. New York Yankees Saturday
• 2023 road stats: 2-2, 4.54 ERA in 39 2/3 IP over 7 starts and 8 appearances

Abbott (8-5, 3.68 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 102 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road win vs. New York Mets Saturday
• 2023 home stats: 3-3, 3.46 ERA in 48 IP over 10 starts

Pirates at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Reds -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-140) | Reds -1.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Pirates at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Pirates 4

Moneyline

PASS.

Given how well the Pirates are playing — they’ve scored 21 runs over their last 2 games — there’s little value on the Reds at -165. However, Cincinnati will have a sizable pitching advantage and probably should be that large of a favorite.

Run line/Against the spread

BET REDS -1.5 (+115).

The Pirates have been electric at the plate as of late, but they have also given up 6 or more runs in 3 straight games. They have lost 3 of their last 6 games by 2 or more runs.

The Reds are an MLB-best 93-61 ATS despite having covered just 1 of their last 5 games.

With a pitching advantage in their home park and in a game that could play a big factor in their postseason dreams, combined with the Pirates’ flaws on the mound lately, the Reds have good value to cover.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (-110).

The Reds have gone over in 2 of their last 4 games and are 7-6-1 O/U in their last 14 games.

The Pirates have scored 22 runs over their last 3 games and allowed 27 in that span, so they have had high-action games as of late. The Pirates are 83-66-4 O/U this season — the 4th highest Over % in the league.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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