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The Milwaukee Brewers (54-39) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (44-48) to American Family Field Thursday for the finale of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Brewers lead 5-4
The Brewers slaughtered Pittsburgh Wednesday, winning 9-0, but that came on the back of a 12-2 Pittsburgh win Tuesday.
Milwaukee has lost 4 of its last 6 games, including dropping 2 of 3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road in its series prior. The Brewers, who sit atop the NL Central, are 50-43 against the spread (ATS). They are 28-14 at home this season.
The Pirates, who are 22-24 on the road, have have won 2 of their last 3 games. Pittsburgh is 4-3 over its last 7 road games. It is 49-43 ATS on the season.
Pirates at Brewers projected starters
RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Aaron Civale
Skenes (5-0, 2.12 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 59 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 14-2 home win over the New York Mets Friday
- 2024 away splits: 2-0, 1.11 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.74 WHIP, 2 HR, 13.7 K/9 in 4 starts
- In his first MLB season and has never faced Brewers
Civale (2-6, 5.18 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 5.4 BB/9 and 14.4 K/9 in 92 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 8-5 road loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
- 2024 home splits: 1-4, 4.25 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 11 HR, 9.6 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Pirates: 1-1, 4.63 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 23 H, 4 BB, 16 K in 4 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Pirates at Brewers odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:41 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Pirates -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Brewers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+134) | Brewers +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Pirates at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Brewers 3
Moneyline
BET PIRATES (-118).
All the excitement around Skenes is coming to fruition, and the Pirates play better when he’s on the mound. Pittsburgh is 7-3 in his starts and has won 5 of his last 7 appearances. He has allowed 2 or fewer ER in 8 of those 10 starts.
The Pirates have scored 8 or more runs in 3 of their last 6 games, so their offense has started to shine as well. The Brewers, who have scored 3 or fewer in 4 of their last 7, have struggled to find consistency, having not won back-to-back games in over a week.
For this value and given the pitching difference, back PIRATES (-118).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Pirates are better played on the moneyline than the run line considering how good Milwaukee has been all season long at home. Similarly, the Brewers are too expensive as a run-line underdog.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7.5 (-115).
The Brewers are 50-38-5 O/U on the season and have topped the Over in 4 of their last 5 games. Either they or their opponent have scored at least 9 in 3 straight.
Pittsburgh has gone Over in 3 straight games. It is 6-3 O/U in its last 9. Considering the trends for both sides, back OVER 7.5 (-115).
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