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Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (46-39) and Tampa Bay Rays (57-32) meet Thursday as they cap off a 3-game series in St. Petersburg, Fla. First pitch at Tropicana Field is slated for 6:40 p.m. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 2-0

The Phillies are looking for a sweep after 3-1 and 8-4 victories Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Philadelphia is 7-2 over its last 9 games. The Phillies have not lost on the road since June 12, going 11-0 with a 2.18 ERA away from Citizens Bank Park over that span.

Tampa Bay has lost 4 in a row, a first this season. The Rays are 10-13 since June 10, going just 4-6 at home along that stretch.

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Phillies at Rays projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Shawn Armstrong

Sanchez (0-2, 3.26 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 19 1/3 IP.

  • Owns a 4.88 career ERA logged across parts of 3 seasons (8 starts, 18 relief appearances)
  • Went a season-high 87 pitches last time out: Loss, 6 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 2-1 loss vs. Washington Nationals Friday

Armstrong (0-0, 1.15 ERA) is making his 2nd start and 13th appearance. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 15 2/3 IP.

  • Figures as an opener for the Rays (pitched 2 innings in that role June 7 vs. Minnesota Twins)
  • Has made 4 starts in his career: 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 IP

Phillies at Rays odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +128 (bet $100 to win $128) | Rays -152 (bet $152 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-162) | Rays -1.5 (+134)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Rays 4

Moneyline

The Phillies have shown better form recently and Sanchez’s good stat line is supportable with analytics, giving underdog bettors some value Thursday.

The Philadelphia bullpen has been sharp over the last month or so. Tampa’s relief unit figures to be overrated with a low (and lucky) .259 batting average on balls in play.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA (+128).

Run line/Against the spread

There’s a nice equilibrium between this action and the Moneyline wager above. Some bettors may want to hedge by going in for a half-unit on each if the line improves to Philadelphia +1.5 (-150) or better. Until then, PASS.

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Over/Under

The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 series meetings in Tampa Bay and is 20-7 in Tampa’s last 27 home games overall.

However, the Philly pitching prognosis is solid for this contest, and both bullpens are in good shape at the back end. At the right price (say -110), the 8.5-run total is attractive on the upside. But at the current tag, STEER CLEAR.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (45-39) and Tampa Bay Rays (57-31) meet Wednesday as they continue a 3-game series in St. Petersburg. First pitch at Tropicana Field is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0.

The Phillies took Tuesday’s series opener 3-1 and are 6-2 across their last 8 games. Over those 8 games, Philadelphia pitching has compiled a 2.88 ERA. On the road, the Phils have won 10 in a row while logging a 2.01 ERA.

With Tuesday’s setback, Tampa Bay has lost 3 in a row. The Rays have slowed down since winning 7 straight from June 3-9; they are 10-12 since. During that stretch, Tampa Bay gone just 4-5 at home.

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Phillies at Rays projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Zack Littell

Walker (9-3, 3.93 ERA) is lined up for his 18th start. He’s posted a 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 89 1/3 innings.

  • Has yielded just 20 H and 3 ER (0.84 ERA) over his last 32 IP
  • Owns a 5.26 ERA and 1.44 on the road

Littell (0-1, 5.28 ERA) is making his 2nd start (and 13th appearance) of the season. He has notched a 1.43 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 15 1/3 innings.

  • Figures as an opener for the Rays (pitched 2 innings in that role June 29)
  • Owns a 4.18 ERA, 1.34 WHIP over his career; has made 5 starts and 152 relief appearances
  • RHP Yonny Chirinos (3.64 ERA) is a likely candidate to follow Littell

Phillies at Rays odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Rays -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-176) | Rays -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -102)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 9/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Phillies at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6, Phillies 5

Moneyline

The Phillies have showed better recent form, but Walker has some underlying indicators that point to his likely being overrated, perhaps significantly, heading into this game.

Pitchers on both sides are fade-worthy, especially if Chirinos, beneficiary of a .237 batting average with balls in play, toils a few frames for the Rays.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

More juice here. Less interest here. PASS.

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Over/Under

The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 series meetings in Tampa Bay. And it is 19-7 in Tampa’s last 26 home games. With some lean against the pitching in this one and for a Philadelphia offense likely capable of more-than 4.52 runs per game, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-120).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (44-39) and Tampa Bay Rays (57-30) meet Tuesday as they open a 3-game series in St. Petersburg. First pitch at Tropicana Field is slated for 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting since 2021; Tampa Bay has won 7 straight series games since 2020

Philadelphia drubbed the Washington Nationals 19-4 Saturday, but was dealt a pair of 1-run losses in a 2-1 weekend-series defeat. The Phillies, who were off Monday, are 3rd in the NL East, 12 1/2 games back  of the Atlanta Braves.

Tampa Bay was also off Monday after returning from a 3-3 road trip to Arizona and Seattle. The Rays have slowed down since winning 7 straight from June 3-9; they are 10-11 since. During that stretch, Tampa Bay has logged a 4.88 ERA in going 4-4 at home. They lead the AL East by 6 games.

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Phillies at Rays projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Zach Eflin

Nola (7-5, 4.51 ERA) makes his 18th start. He owns a 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 105 2/3 innings.

  • Allowed 4 runs in his last start and owns a 4.81 ERA since May 25
  • Has a 3.40 ERA on home turf, but a 5.34 figure on the road

Eflin (9-3, 3.29 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has registered a 1.03 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 90 1/3 innings.

  • Has been tougher this year on left-handed bats. That’ll be a big key against a left-loaded, righty-bashing Philadelphia club that, since June 1, owns a .781 OPS against righties.
  • Has a 2.17 ERA, 0.89 WHIP at Tropicana
  • Pitched for Philadelphia from 2016-22
  • Has gone 6-plus innings in 10 of his last 11 starts

Phillies at Rays odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:59 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +124 (bet $100 to win $124) | Rays -146 (bet $146 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-176) | Rays -1.5 (+146)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Rays 3

Moneyline

Nola has been sharper of late than what shows in his surface line. The veteran righty does well to limit hard contact, but he’s been perhaps a bit unlucky in his percentage of fly balls hit over the fence. Like Eflin, he’s missing a lot of bats in the zone lately. He’s backed by a quality bullpen, and that fact looks to be muddied by the surface ERAs for both clubs (Philadelphia 3.89, Tampa Bay 3.82). Rays relievers have been bolstered by a .259 batting average on balls in play.

Philadelphia has been the sharper club of late, and the Phils are 3-1 over their last 4 games after an off day (Tampa 0-3 in their last 3 in such situations).

TAKE THE PHILLIES (+124).

Run line/Against the spread

More juice here, which looks to be cutting too far into Philly’s leverage. PASS.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

Crisscrossing signals on both sides of the balls and for both teams. AVOID.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

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