Tag: Phillies Orioles odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The Baltimore Orioles (46-24) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (47-23) to Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the finale of their 3-game series Sunday. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Phillies opened the series with a 5-3 win Friday, but lost the 2nd game 6-2 Saturday as Orioles RF Anthony Santander was the star of the show, ending the game with 2 HRs and 4 RBIs.

Philadelphia has lost 3 of its last 4 games and has failed to cover in each loss. The Phillies are still 9-5 straight up (SU) over their last 14 games, and have been a strong road side with a 20-13 away record. Philadelphia is 39-31 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Orioles are 7-2 over their last 9 games and have covered in each victory. They are the 2nd-best covering team in the MLB with a 32-27 ATS record. Baltimore has also been among the best at home with a 24-14 record at Oriole Park.

Phillies at Orioles projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Wheeler (8-3, 2.16 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 87 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-1 road win over the Boston Red Sox Tuesday
• 2024 road splits: 3-1, 2.83 ERA (35 IP, 11 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 3 HR, 8.7 K/9 in 6 starts
• Career vs. Orioles: 1-0, 1.90 ERA (23 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 4 starts

Burnes (7-2, 2.08 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 86 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-2 road win over Tampa Bay Rays Monday
• 2024 home splits: 3-1, 1.70 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 4 HR, 9.3 K/9 in 8 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 0.55 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 0.80 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 4 appearances (2 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Orioles odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:37 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Orioles -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-210) | Orioles -1.5 (+172)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Orioles 2

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (+110).

The Phillies have been the best team in the MLB following a loss. They are 17-5 on the season and will have their ace on the mound Sunday. The Phillies have won 6 of Wheeler’s last 8 starts, and he has allowed more than 2 ER in 3 of 14 starts.

Philadelphia is 7-5 SU as an underdog. While the Orioles have been strong at home on the season, they have lost 2 of their last 3 and have tallied 3 or fewer runs in 2 of those 3 as well.

Expect a bounce-back game for Philadelphia and take PHILLIES (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s just no great value here, and the play for either side should be on the moneyline. The Orioles are too risky as a run-line favorite while the Phillies are far too expensive as a run-line underdog.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7 (-110).

The Orioles are 2-3-3 O/U in their last 8 games and have allowed a total of 4 runs in Burnes’ last 3 starts.

The Phillies are 3-7-1 O/U in their last 11 games and have gone Under in 5 straight games in which Wheeler has started. They have allowed a combined 7 runs in those.

Both teams have their aces on the mound, so expect strong pitching performances. Back UNDER 7 (-110).

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The Baltimore Orioles (45-24) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (47-22) to Oriole Park at Camden Yards Saturday for the 2nd game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 1-0

The Phillies took down the Orioles 5-3 in an 11-inning game Friday. That snapped a 2-game losing streak for Philadelphia. It has lost 3 of its last 5 yet is still 9-4 straight up over its last 13. The Phillies have the best home record in MLB and are the 3rd-best road team at 19-12. They are 39-30 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Orioles have lost 2 in a row yet have won 6 of their last 8. They have seen their offense stall over the last few games, scoring 4 or fewer in 4 straight. Baltimore is 23-14 at home this season and 5-3 over its last 8 at Oriole Park. The Orioles are the 2nd-best team ATS in MLB with a 41-27 record.

Phillies at Orioles projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez

Walker (3-1, 5.40 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 43 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-5 home loss to New York Mets Sunday
• 2024 road splits: 2-1, 5.89 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 3 HR, 5.9 K/9 in 3 starts
• Career vs. Orioles: 4-1, 2.54 ERA (49 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 9 starts

Rodriguez (7-2, 3.27 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 63 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 9-2 road win over Tampa Bay Rays Sunday
• 2024 home splits: 3-1, 2.12 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 4 HR, 10.6 K/9 in 5 starts
• Has never faced Philadelphia before

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Orioles odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:52 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Orioles -178 (bet $178 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Orioles -1.5 (+116)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Phillies at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Phillies 2

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no great value here. The Orioles (-178) have the better pitcher taking the mound and should use that to come out on top. At -178, they aren’t worth the moneyline play though.

Run line/Against the spread

BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+116).

The Phillies have lost 3 straight games in which Walker has started and are 0-3 ATS in those. They are 2-2 ATS as road underdogs, while the Orioles are 17-16 ATS as home favorites.

The Orioles have won 2 straight in which Rodriguez has started and both of those were by at least 5 runs. They are 3-1 ATS in his last 4 starts and have covered in 6 of their last 8 games. Rodriguez has also been far better at home with a sub-2.20 ERA.

Expect another strong performance, and take ORIOLES -1.5 (+116).

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122).

The Orioles are 2-3-2 O/U in their last 7 games, scoring 4 or fewer in 4 straight and have allowed 2 or fewer in 5 of their last 7. They have allowed just 4 combined runs in Rodriguez’s last 2 starts.

The Phillies are 3-7 O/U in their last 10 games and have gone Under in Walker’s last 2 starts. They have allowed 3 or fewer in 6 of their last 9 as well. Couple it all together, and back UNDER 8.5 (-122).

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The Philadelphia Phillies (46-22) take on the Baltimore Orioles (45-23) Friday in the opener of a 3-game set at Oriole Park at Camden Yards at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 2-1 last year

The Phils enter rivalry weekend after losing 2 of 3 at Fenway Park to the Boston Red Sox. They lost 9-3 Thursday as RHP Aaron Nola gave up 8 ER in 3 2/3 IP. DH Kyle Schwarber went 3-for-4 with 3 RBIs. He has his BA up to .249 after hitting .297 last month and .282 so far this month.

The O’s snapped a 6-game winning streak with a 6-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves Thursday night. The Orioles scored 3 in the 7th to pull within 1, but Atlanta polished them off with 2 in the 9th. The O’s and Phils are tied atop of baseball with 5.1 R/game.

Phillies at Orioles projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Kyle Bradish

Suarez (10-1, 1.81 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has an MLB-best 0.85 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 79 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 7-2 home victory Saturday against New York Mets
• 2 career starts vs. BAL: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11 K in 12 IP

Bradish (2-0, 2.62 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 in 34 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 5-0 victory Saturday at Toronto Blue Jays
• 1 career start vs. Phillies: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K July 26

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Phillies at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Orioles -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Phillies at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Phillies 2

Moneyline

I don’t trust Suarez here. Two starts ago, he left after 2 innings from taking a 106-mph liner off his pitching hand, and he allowed a season-high 8 hits to the lowly New York Mets the next time out.

So I like the Orioles here, but they’re a better bet on the RL.

Instead, I’m honing in on KYLE BRADISH OVER 5.5 K’S. For some reason, BetMGM has removed this prop as an option, but competing books have it at Over 5.5 (-110). If/when it returns, I’m good to take the Over even if it steams up to 6.5.

He has 6+ K’s in 5 of his last 6 GS, and his 12.8 K/9 is by far a career high. It’s not necessarily a fluke, either, because his K-rate has gone up each year. The Phils are 14th with 8.18 K’s/game.

Run line/Against the spread

The Orioles’ last 18 wins have been by multiple runs. They’re this year’s version of the 2023 Los Angeles Dodgers where you’re better off betting the RL on them.

Take the ORIOLES -1.5 (+155).

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Over/Under

It’s expected to be a damp, 82-degree evening with an 8-mph gust blowing in from left-center. The Over is 3-6-1 in the last 10 meetings. The Phils are 2-7-1 O/U in their last 10, and the Orioles are 4-4-2.

If this number swells to 7.5, take the Under. However, at an even 7, I do not like this total at all.

PASS.

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