Tag: Phillies Nationals odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (70-90) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (94-66) to Nationals Park Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 8-3

The Phillies are 2 games behind the LA Dodgers for the top spot in the National League — Philadelphia has the breaker. The Phillies lost to the Nationals 9-1 to open the series Friday. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games. They are just 40-39 on the road this season and 79-81 against the spread (ATS) overall. Philadelphia beat the Chicago Cubs in 2 of 3 games prior to this series.

The Nationals snapped their 4-game losing streak with the win Friday. They were swept in a 3-game home series by the Kansas City Royals and dropped 3 of 4 games to the Cubs prior to that. Washington is 37-42 at home this season and 87-73 ATS overall.

Phillies at Nationals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore

Wheeler (16-7, 2.56 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 through 193 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 2-1 road loss to New York Mets Sunday
  • 2024 away stats: 6-4, 2.83 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Nationals: 14-15, 4.50 ERA (202 IP, 101 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 34 starts

Gore (10-12, 4.04 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 160 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 5-1 road win over Cubs Sept. 21
  • 2024 home stats: 7-6, 3.99 ERA (88 IP, 39 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 18 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-4, 5.72 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.53 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Phillies -1.5 (-115) | Nationals +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

There’s no value here. Wheeler is an ace, and the Phillies (-200) should come out on top. They are unplayable at these odds, though.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).

The Phillies have dominated with Wheeler on the mound this season. They have won and covered in 3 of his last 5 starts, having outscored opponents 28-7. Philadelphia has a much steadier offense as well, having scored 4 or more runs in 3 of its last 4 games.

The Nationals have been held scoreless in 3 of their last 5 games and lost 6 of their last 10 by multiple runs. With those trends in mind, back PHILLIES -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-110).

The Nationals have gone Over in 2 straight games and 5 of their last 10. They have scored 13 runs over their last 2 games, so there has been some life in their offense.

Similarly, the Phillies are 6-1-1 O/U in their last 8 games. They have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of their last 8 as well. Take OVER 7.5 (-110).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (94-65) visit the Washington Nationals (69-90) Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 8-2

Philadelphia beat the Chicago Cubs 9-6 Wednesday while covering as a -213 home favorite. The Phillies are locked into a tight battle with the LA Dodgers for the top seed in the NL playoff with Philadelphia a half-game back.

Washington lost 7-4 to the Kansas City Royals Thursday as a +150 home underdog. The Nationals have lost 9 of their last 10 games.

Phillies at Nationals projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Trevor Williams

Suarez (12-7, 3.15 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 148 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 4 K in a 6-3 loss at the New York Mets Saturday
  • Career vs. Washington: 7-1, 3.64 ERA (54 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 8 appearances (1 start)

Williams (5-1, 2.19 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 61 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 3-1 outing vs. the Chicago Cubs Friday
  • Career vs. Philadelphia: 2-4, 5.29 ERA (49 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 11 appearances (9 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:08 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Nationals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-110) | Nationals +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -125)

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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 2

Moneyline

PASS.

The Phillies will pick up the win as -185 favorites, but they are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites.

While I do recommend passing here and betting on the spread and/or total instead, because I expect the Phillies to win by such a healthy margin, it is okay if you choose to divvy up units between this bet and the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (-110).

Philadelphia has dominated Washington winning 8 of 10 meetings and only allowing the Nationals to finish within 1 run in 2 of those 8 wins.

The Nationals are also only 1-9 in their last 10 overall and have only finished within 1 run of their opponent in 3 of those 9 losses.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-125).

The Under has hit in 5 of Washington’s last 6 games and is 2-1 in its last 3 at home. The Under has also hit in each of the last 3 Philadelphia-Washington meetings in the Nation’s Capital.

This is a lean because the Over is 5-3-2 in Philly’s last 10 overall.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (67-56) face the Washington Nationals (56-68) in the MLB Little League Classic. First pitch from the Muncy Bank Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pa., is on Sunday Night Baseball at 7:10pm ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 7-5

After Philadelphia’s stunning 8-7 loss to the Washington Nationals on Friday, where they blew a 6-1 lead, Saturday was Washington’s turn to implode.

The Nationals took a 3-0 into the 7th inning thanks to RHP Jake Irvin’s 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, and 7 K, but the bullpen immediately unraveled. Phillies RF Nick Castellanos hit a 3-run home run to tie the game in the 7th.

And then the 8th inning was a disaster for Washington. RHP Cory Abbott allowed 8 runs including 2 solo HRs from SS Trea Turner and a 3-run shot from 2B Bryson Stott. The Phillies won 12-3.

Phillies vs. Nationals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Trevor Williams

Wheeler (9-5, 3.63 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 144 innings.

  • Last start: No decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 2-1 loss vs. Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday
  • 2023 road stats: 6-3, 3.24 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 28 ER) in 13 starts
  • Career vs. Nationals: 12-14, 4.66 ERA (181 2/3 IP, 94 ER) in 31 starts

Williams (5-7, 5.20 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 117 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No decision, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K in an 8-7 home win against the Oakland Athletics on Sunday
  • 2023 home stats: 2-3, 4.85 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 30 ER) in 11 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-4, 6.00 ERA (39 IP, 26 ER) in 9 appearances (7 starts)

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Phillies vs. Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:28 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Nationals +185 (bet $100 to win $185)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -2.5 (+110) | Nationals +2.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies vs. Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 7, Nationals 5

Moneyline

The initial pitching matchup favored Philadelphia. LHP Ranger Suárez has beaten Washington more than any other team in his career but was a late scratch. Wheeler can fill in his shoes quite well.

He’s 12-14 against Washington in his career and is pitching well this season. His 10 K/9 is the 2nd best in his career and his strikeout to walk ratio (5.52) is his best.

Also, Williams has struggled against Philadelphia, posting a 1-4 record.

But -225 is too high to grab them at the moneyline. It’s best to PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

It’s uncommon to see a 2.5 run line in baseball. But getting just above even money on a Phillies team who has the 3rd-worst record against the spread this season (52-71) is not ideal. And Philadelphia is last in MLB in cover percentage after a win (39.4%).

On the flip side, Washington’s has a surprisingly good cover rate after a loss (56.7%) which is 8th best in baseball.

BET NATIONALS +2.5 (-135).

Over/Under

Both teams trend toward the Under this season, but more recently, they have been hitting the Over. The Phillies and Nationals are on 3-game Over streaks, including the 1st 2 games of this series.

In the last 3 games, the Phillies are 3rd in runs per game (9.3) while the Nationals are 6th (7.0). Philadelphia has done it with the long ball, averaging 3.3 HRs a game. Washington on the other hand is last in HRs per game (0.3) and is 1sst in doubles.

The books like a lower scoring game, but I like the value in seeing the runs continue to flow.

LEAN OVER 9 (+100).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (24-32) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (25-31) to Nationals Park Friday for the opener of a 3-game set. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting of 2023; Philadelphia won 16 of 19 meetings in 2022

The Phillies are riding a 4-game losing skid, dropping all 3 games on the road to the New York Mets to start the week, including a 4-2 loss in the finale Thursday. Philadelphia scored just 3 runs in the series with New York and is just 5-12 over its last 17 games.

The Nationals are returning home off a 3-3 road trip, winning 2 of 3 at the Kansas City Royals last weekend and 1 of 3 at the Los Angeles Dodgers to start the week — including a 10-6 victory Wednesday. Washington is 6-5 over its last 11 games and is last in the NL East, 9 games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves and 1 game behind the Phillies.

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Phillies at Nationals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Wheeler (4-4, 3.60 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 65 IP.

  • The Phillies are 6-5 in his starts
  • Has given up at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 outings
  • Is coming off his best outing of the season: Win, 8 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 12 K at the Atlanta Braves Saturday

Gray (4-5, 2.77 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 61 2/3 IP.

  • Gray has been far better at limiting home runs, allowing 6 after leading the league by allowing 38 last season.
  • The Nationals are 5-6 in his starts
  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K, at Kansas City Royals Saturday

Phillies at Nationals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Nationals +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-115) | Nationals +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Phillies (-185) are just 11-21 on the road this season, so backing them at a juicy price tag doesn’t make much sense. Focus on the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-105).

Philadelphia is 11-22 on the run line as a favorite, and it has been struggling recently with just 5 outright wins in its last 17 games.

Washington is 35-21 against the spread (ATS) this season as well, the 2nd best mark in the league. The Nats are 33-21 ATS as underdogs and 2-0 ATS with a rest advantage, which they have in this situation.

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9 (-115).

The Phillies are just 23-29-4 O/U this season with the Nationals sitting at 25-28-3 O/U.

Both Gray and Wheeler are among the best pitchers on their respective teams, so runs may be at a premium in this one. Washington is 2-3 O/U in its last 5 while Philadelphia is 1-4 O/U in its last 5.

Back the UNDER 9 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (35-31) and Washington Nationals (23-45) continue a 5-game series with a 4:35 p.m. ET Saturday contest at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 3-0.

The Phillies have taken the first 3 games of this series – 1 Thursday and both ends of a Friday twin bill – and are 14-2 this month. Philadelphia has scored 23 runs in this series and owns a robust .861 OPS in June.

The Nationals have pitched themselves into the basement in the NL East. Washington has lost 7 in a row. Since May 30, the Nats are 5-14 with a 6.71 ERA.

Phillies at Nationals projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Josiah Gray

Nola (4-4, 3.42 ERA) is tabbed for his 14th start of the season. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 81 2/3 IP.

  • Has gone 4 straight starts (29 1/3 IP) without issuing a walk; 1.1 BB/9 for the season would be a career-best mark.
  • Struggled against Washington last season, allowing 11R in 9 IP.

Gray (6-4, 4.33 ERA) has logged a 1.32 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 62 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed 7R in a home start May 24. Owns a 1.13 ERA across 3 starts since.
  • Lefty bats for Philly have cranked out above-average numbers against right-handers (.784 OPS). That could well be a problem for Gray, who has yielded an .889 OPS to left-handed bats in his 2-year career.

Phillies at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Run line (RL): Phillies -1.5 (-117) | Nationals +1.5 (-103)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 3

Money line

The on-a-roll Phils are a strong lean … but only up to -190. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

Washington’s .668 home OPS ranks 24th in the league. Philadelphia’s .787 mark on the road ranks 1st.

With the club’s runs-vs.-runs-allowed profile heading into the last couple weeks, the Phillies were a value target. Some of that edge has been filed down, but the visiting 9 does have an attractive price here.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-117).

Over/Under

Neither bullpen is in great shape after Friday’s double-dip, but both starters have solid expected-ERA figures. With a cooled-off weather forecast that includes a 15-mph pitcher’s wind in from left-center, TAKE THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (32-31) and Washington Nationals (23-42) swing into a 5-game series with a 7:05 p.m. ET opener Thursday. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: first meeting.

The Phillies are 11-2 this month. Philadelphia owns a robust .876 OPS in June.

The Nationals have pitched themselves into the basement in the NL East. Washington enters this series on a 4-game losing streak. Since May 30, the Nats are 5-11 with a 7.22 ERA.

Phillies at Nationals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Wheeler (5-3, 2.84 ERA) has registered a 1.09 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 63 1/3 IP across 11 starts.

  • Owns a 4.70 ERA over his last 5 starts against Washington.
  • Has been much better at home (1.49 ERA, 0.85 WHIP) than on the road (5.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)

Corbin (3-8, 6.65 ERA) owns a 1.73 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 66 1/3 IP over 13 starts.

  • Has yielded 3 or more runs in 6 straight starts
  • Has allowed an .832 OPS across past meetings with current Philly batters.

Phillies at Nationals odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 11:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Nationals +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
  • Run line (RL): Phillies -1.5 (-125) | Nationals +1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Phillies at Nationals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 3

Money line

Philadelphia is quite good against lefties and has been excellent against Corbin. The Phils are a strong lean… but only up to -190. PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

Don’t read too much into Wheeler’s road woes. He allowed 7 runs in 3 innings in his 2nd start of the season to skew the numbers. He has a 3.00 ERA in the other 3 road starts.

Corbin’s last-three pitch counts: 106-91-103. And the Nats lefty makes this start on 4 days’ rest.

Philly has been unduly hurt by a 6-10 mark in 1-run games. The club’s run production and allowance (4.83 runs per game vs. 4.37 allowed) tell the story of a team capable of more.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-125).

Over/Under

On a warm, humid, wind-out night in D.C., this total is rather lofty. Too lofty with a for-real Wheeler in action, with a rested Philly pen behind him and with a Washington bullpen that has significantly better expected-ERA figures than its surface numbers.

TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-115).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (68-64) and Washington Nationals (55-76) close out a three-game NL East series Wednesday. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Nola is 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 over 148 2/3 IP through 26 starts.

  • Owns a 3.43 ERA and 0.79 WHIP over his last 42 IP.
  • Has divergent home/road splits this season and over the last three years. Has posted a 2.97 ERA at home and a 4.99 mark on the road since 2019.

RHP Paolo Espino is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Espino is 4-4 with a 4.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, and 1.7 BB/9 across 80 2/3 IP through 13 starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Current Philly bats own a small-sample .898 OPS against him.
  • Allowed 6 runs on 8 hits over 5 innings in an Aug. 4 start against the Phillies.
  • Has been aided by a .269 batting average on balls in play.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies have won the first two games of this series and five in a row overall. Philadelphia has scored 19 runs in this series and 47 over its last six games.

Washington’s pitching since the All-Star break has been atrocious. The Nats have allowed 1.98 HR per game en route to posting a 5.82 ERA in their last 42 games.

The Phillies are 12-6 against the Nats on the season and are plus-26 in run differential over the 18 games.

Nola comes out better on the “stuff-meter” than he does with his earned run average. His 24.1% K-BB rate is elite, and he has expected-ERA numbers mostly under 3.50. The Phillies have just owned the Nats this season, and the pricing here isn’t bad.

BACK PHILADELPHIA (-170).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

I peg the price on the money line to be slightly more value than what pops up here, but PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+100) is a close second.

Over/Under (O/U)

Humid conditions with an outward breeze are in the forecast. This game could well get postponed by heavy rains, but the Nola angle and pricing chip away at any leverage here.

PASS.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (67-64) play the second game of their three-game series with the Washington Nationals (55-75) Tuesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly took the series opener Monday by jumping out to a 3-run lead after the third inning. It held on to win 7-4.

The Phillies are still lingering around the NL playoff race as they sit 3.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings and 3 games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Phillies lead 11-6.

LHP Matt Moore is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 2-4 with a 6.12 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 12 starts and eight relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 8-7, with 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K Thursday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  • Moore lost to Washington July 27, 6-4, with a stat line of 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
    • vs. Nationals on the current roster (59 PA): 8.95 FIP with a .321 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, 20.3 K% and 84.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Patrick Corbin gets the nod for the Nationals. He is 7-13 with a 6.09 ERA (136 IP, 92 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Miami Marlins.
  • Corbin is 1-1 against Philly this season with a 4.26 ERA (19 IP, 9 ER), 19 H, 2 BB and 19 K through three starts.
    • vs. Phillies on the current roster (210 PA): 3.39 FIP with a .250 BA, .299 wOBA, .377 xSLG, 21.0 K% and 86.8 mph EV.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Nationals -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Nationals +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Nationals 8, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

GIMME the NATIONALS (-117) for 1 unit because this is a much better spot for them and there’s heavy “reverse line movement” (RLM) in Washington’s direction

The Nationals are 8-3 overall as a home favorite against lefty starters with a plus-29.8% return on investment (ROI) and a plus-2.18 average margin of victory.

Corbin has stronger pitching peripherals vs. Phillies hitters than Moore does against the Nationals and Washington’s lineup is second in wRC+, first in wOBA, eighth in BB/K and 13th in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Lastly, this game opened with Washington as a +110 money line underdog before it was dropped to the current number. However, according to Pregame.com, 80% of the action is on Philly and it’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS -1.5 (+160) ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a tiny wager, if at all, because I like Washington’s money line enough in this spot to “sprinkle” on the run line.

Moreover, the Nationals are 6-5 ATS with a plus-18.6% ROI as a home favorite going against a lefty starter. The Phillies are 6-7 ATS with a minus-26.4% ROI as a road underdog when facing a left-handed starter with a minus-1.39 average run differential.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 9.5 (-105) because both starters are bottom of the rotation guys and have an ERA north of 6.00.

Since there’s one-sided action in the betting market favoring the Over, I’d prefer not to follow the crowd in this spot.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (66-64) and Washington Nationals (55-74) open a three-game NL East series on Monday. The first pitch in the series opener at Nationals Park is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zack Wheeler is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. Wheeler is 10-9 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in 176 2/3 IP over 26 starts.

  • In a Wednesday loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, Wheeler allowed 7 runs (5 earned) on 10 hits and no walks while striking out 10 across 8 IP. After posting a 2.97 ERA in his first five starts of the second half, the Phillies righty has gone 0-3 with a 6.53 ERA over his last three turns.
  • Current Washington bats own an aggregate .822 OPS against him.

RHP Josiah Gray is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Over seven appearances (six starts), Gray is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 36 IP.

  • Coming off back-to-back starts in which he allowed 2 ER over 6 IP. Threw a season-high 91 pitches in his last start (Aug. 25 at Miami).
  • Has been hurt by the long ball (3.0 home runs per 9 IP) but has benefited from a .217 batting average on balls in play.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Nationals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+105) | Nationals +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

The Phillies hit the road after a six-game home stand (3-3). The trip for Philly is an ungainly one, sending the club to Washington, D.C., Miami and Milwaukee. The Phils are just 5-8 since Aug. 15, but they enter this series on a three-game win streak.

The Nationals return to D.C. after a nine-game road trip (3-6). Washington’s pitching since the break has been abysmal. The Nats have allowed 1.9 HR per game en route to posting a 5.63 ERA in their last 40 games.

On the season, the Phillies are 10-6 against the Nats. Over those games, Philadelphia is a plus-17 in run differential.

There is enough to question Wheeler on to make Gray and the Nats the leverage side here, but consider a PASS here and a play on the run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Nationals look to be too aggressively priced on the money line and more of a fair proposition on the run line. Still, the strongest play in the game is on the Over. Consider a partial-unit bet on WASHINGTON +1.5 (-130).

Over/Under (O/U)

Both clubs are more productive against lefty pitchers, but there is some fade-both-starters energy in this matchup. Washington owns a .771 OPS at home, and the Nats have scored 5-plus runs in 7 of their last 10 at Nationals Park.

Mix in two struggling bullpens (August ERAs: Phils 4.88, Nats 5.26) and a hot, humid night in D.C., and make your play on the OVER 8.5 (-107).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (55-53) close out a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (49-59) Thursday. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies. He is 7-6 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 over 121 1/3 IP spanning 21 starts.

  • Coming off solid back-to-back efforts with 3 ER on 7 hits over 14 2/3 IP. That comes on the heels of posting a 7.99 ERA over his previous five starts.
  • Has typically been a much better pitcher on home turf. Owns a 3.18 ERA at home this season compared to a 5.29 mark on the road and has a 5.02 road ERA since 2019.

RHP Joe Ross is the projected starter for the Nationals. He is 5-9 with a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 over 96 2/3 IP spanning 18 starts.

  • Coming off a shaky outing but pitched well against the Phillies two starts back with five scoreless innings.
  • Didn’t allow an earned run in any of his last three road starts (which includes two turns against Philadelphia). Has a 2.91 road ERA for the season.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+100) | Nationals +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Philadelphia won the first three games of this series and is looking for a big sweep and the possibility of edging closer to the New York Mets in the NL East standings. Philadelphia was 5 games back on July 9 but trails the Mets by just 1.5 games heading into Thursday’s action.

Nola gives the Phillies perhaps more of an edge than what shows on paper. He has been dinged a bit by a .310 batting average on balls in play and his expected-ERA figures are in the low-to-mid-3s.

Ross has struggled over recent efforts at home and owns a Nationals Park ERA of 5.32 on the year. Overall, the Nats look to have a post-trade deadline hangover. Washington went into Wednesday’s game with a second-half ERA of 5.88.

There is a recent usage/fatigue factor working against Philly, though, so getting a wager through a run line could be dicey.

BACK THE PHILLIES (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Washington puts up solid batting numbers at home, and the Nats own good second-half numbers in broad offensive categories.

The Phillies own an .837 OPS over their last 15 contests on the road and have scored 7.0 runs per game in this series.

This whole series has set up for Overs, and so far the Over is 3-for-3.

BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).

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