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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (57-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-48) clash in a Fourth of July showdown Thursday. The matinee contest at Wrigley Field is slated for 2:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 2-0

Phillies pitchers have struck out 22 batters against just 4 walks in the club’s taking the 1st 2 games of this series 6-4 and 5-3. Philadelphia, which has won 3 straight games, owns a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP since June 22.

Over the last month, the Cubs have been one of the worst teams in baseball. Since June 6, they are 8-17. Chicago has lost 3 straight and is 2-8 in its last 10.

Phillies at Cubs projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

Sanchez (6-3, 2.41 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 93 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Win, 9 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, K in 2-0 win vs. Miami Marlins Friday
  • Owns a minuscule 1.38 ERA over his last 6 starts
  • Has never faced the Cubs

Taillon (4-4, 3.03 ERA) is lined up for his 14th start. He owns a 1.24 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 74 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-2 loss at Milwaukee Brewers Friday
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-4, 8.67 ERA (27 IP, 26 ER), 38 H, 9 BB, 34 K in 7 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:21 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Cubs +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Cubs 3

Moneyline

Chicago was the lean/play in this 1st 2 games of this series, but a fade-able Taillon (fortunate home run/fly ball rate for a pitcher that yields frequent aerial contact, .764 OPS allowed against current Philly bats-per ESPN) changes the equation for the getaway-day finale.

PASS, and look to leverage the Phils on a run line play.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies have won 7 in a row against the Cubs, and 6 of those wins have been of the multi-run variety.

Chicago owns a weak .667 OPS against southpaws and has the weaker of the 2 bullpens in this matchup. Philadelphia has won 3 straight getaway games and is worth a partial-unit play in this Independence Day finale at Wrigley.

BET THE PHILLIES -1.5 (+140).

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games and in 7 of the Phils’ last 10 road tilts. And the last 20 July games played at Wrigley Field, the Over has gone 14-6.

There is some fade lean against both starters in this one, and the Phillies offense owns an .808 OPS over the club’s last 11 games.

BET THE OVER 7.5 (-110).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (56-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-47) meet Wednesday at Wrigley Field at 8:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Philadelphia leads 1-0

The Phillies clubbed 3 doubles and a pair of home runs in prevailing 6-4 in Tuesday’s series opener. It was Philadelphia’s 6th straight win against Chicago’s NL entry.

The scuffling Cubs are 2-7 over their last 9 games and just 15-30 since May 13. Over the 2-7 stretch, Chicago has produced a subpar .336 slugging percentage.

Phillies at Cubs projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Shota Imanaga

Wheeler (9-4, 2.73 ERA) is lined up for his 18th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-4 loss vs. Miami Marlins Thursday
  • Career vs. Cubs: 2-2, 3.66 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 40 H, 14 BB, 46 K in 8 starts

Imanaga (7-2, 3.07 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 85 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-3 win at San Francisco Giants Thursday
  • Has registered a 6.89 ERA, .869 OPS allowed over his last 6 starts
  • Has never faced the Phillies

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cubs +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Phils are just 7-8 over their last 15 road games. Over that span, the Philadelphia offense has filed some higher-strikeout midrange OPS numbers. Peg the Philly offense as being a bit overrated against southpaws. The Phils own a .763 OPS against lefties, but that figure is buoyed by a .318 batting average on balls in play.

The Cubs have played a tough slate so far and figure as being a couple or 3 games better than what shows in their won-loss percentage. And with veteran starters especially, surface stats from past meetings can be quite misleading. Per ESPN, current Cubs batters own an aggregate .807 OPS against Wheeler.

TAKE CHICAGO (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

Better value on the outright play. PASS.

Over/Under

The Over is 10-1-2 in the last 13 July games at Wrigley Field.

Both starters have some significant fade lean; both have expected-ERA figures — numbers based on quality of contact, normalized BABIP, home-run and situational rates — upwards of their surface stats.

On a humid evening at Wrigley Field, BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-110).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (55-29) and Chicago Cubs (39-46) open a 3-game holiday-week series at Wrigley Field Tuesday at 8:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Philadelphia won 5-1 in 2023

The Phillies own the top mark in the National League, but they have gone a level 9-9 over their last 18 games. They enter this series after splitting a 4-game weekend set at home against the Miami Marlins Thursday through Sunday.

The Cubs are back at home after a 2-5 road trip. Chicago has barely won a third of its games since mid-May. The Cubs are just 15-29 since May 13.

Phillies at Cubs projected starters

RHP Michael Mercado vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski

Mercado (0-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 1st start and 2nd career appearance. He struck out 1 batter in a scoreless inning in relief in his June 24 MLB debut at the Detroit Tigers.

  • 2024 stats with Triple-A Lehigh Valley: 1-1, 1.71 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 8.37 K/9 in 10 starts and 4 relief appearances
  • 2024 road stats with Triple-A Lehigh Valley: 0-0, 1.71 ERA (21 IP, 4 ER), 1.29 WHIP in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances

Wesneski (2-4, 3.60 ERA) makes his 5th start and 22nd appearance. He’s registered a 1.16 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 45 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-3 loss at San Francisco Giants Wednesday
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 1.93 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
  • Has walked 7 batters while allowing 6 runs in his last 7 innings of work

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Phillies 4

Moneyline

The Phils are just 6-8 over their last 14 road tilts. Over that span, the Philadelphia offense has filed a high-strikeout .702 OPS. That’s a far cry from Philly’s overall .753 OPS for the season (4th in MLB).

The Cubs have played a tough slate so far and figure as being a couple games better than what shows in their won-loss percentage.

CHICAGO (-125) is the lean here, but consider on going in small. The mound matchup leaves much to be desired in the past-performances department.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Better relative value can be had on the ML.

Over/Under

Grab the 9.5 runs here before the total drops. The Under has value.

Yes, the pitching matchup makes for a muddy picture, but this series features a Phillies bullpen on a roll (MLB-best 2.27 ERA since June 1) and a Cubs relief corps that figures as better than the 4.32 surface ERA it has on the season. Add to that a 2nd-division offense in that of the home nine and a slowed-down-of-late Phillies lineup.

The total has gone Under in 13 of Chicago’s last 20 games and 5 of the last 6 series meetings at Wrigley.

TAKE THE UNDER 9.5 (-120).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (40-37) open a 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs (37-39) on Tuesday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is set for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Phillies picked up a 7-6 victory when they were last in action on Sunday to take 2 of 3 games from the New York Mets over the weekend. Philadelphia started slow but they have won 15 of their last 20 games, putting themselves in position to make a playoff push during the second half of the season. The Phils remain 10 1/2 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, but just 3 games out of the final NL Wild Card.

The Cubs have been hot lately as well but had a 4-game win streak snapped with a 7-5 road loss vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday. Chicago had won 9 of its last 10 games prior to Sunday’s loss in London and have surged to 3rd place in the NL Central, 3 games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers.

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Phillies at Cubs projected starters

LHP Ranger Suárez vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

Suárez (1-2, 3.50 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 43 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed a total of just 3 ER across his last 4 starts
  • Has 22 strikeouts in 19 innings over his last 3 outings
  • Boasts a 2.19 ERA through 4 road starts, though he has registered just 18 K in 24 2/3 IP in those outings

Taillon (2-5, 6.71 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 53 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 4 ER or more in 6 of his last 8 starts, recording a 7.36 ERA over that span
  • Averaging just over 4 1/3 IP per start on the season but has managed to work into the 6th inning in each of his last 4 turns
  • Put up a 7.16 ERA in 6 home starts, though a .379 BABIP has played a role in those struggles

Phillies at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:22 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cubs +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Cubs 3

Moneyline

The Cubs are 2-10 in games started by Taillon this season, and he surrendered 6 ER over 2 2/3 innings in a road start against the Phillies on May 20. Both teams have been playing well lately but Suárez gives Philadelphia the clear pitching edge.

Back the PHILLIES (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

Though the Phillies are just 19-23 away from home this season, they have won 8 of their last 9 road tilts. Philadelphia got to Taillon back in May and the right-hander has been roughed up pretty consistently throughout the season. Look for the PHILLIES -1.5 (+135) to come out on top Tuesday by multiple runs.

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Over/Under

The Phillies have been playing very well recently and Tuesday should be a nice game for their offense. Suárez has been dominant lately but can’t be expected to completely shut down the Cub bats. Chicago ranks 9th in both runs per game at home and in wRC+ vs left-handed pitching.

There should be just enough offense from both sides to push this total OVER 8.5 (-110).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (83-71) and Chicago Cubs (69-86) end their 3-game series at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is at 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cubs lead 5-0

The Phillies are starting to sweat. They sit just 1/2 game over the Milwaukee Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot. Philadelphia has lost 4 games in a row and will try to avoid being swept by a Chicago Cubs team that is already eliminated from postseason contention.

The Phillies left 12 men on base Wednesday and LF Kyle Schwarber scored their only 2 runs in the 4-2 defeat.

Cubs CF Christopher Morel went 1 for 3, but his lone hit was a 3-run shot in the 5th inning to give Chicago the lead, bringing his SLG to .444.

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Phillies at Cubs projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Javier Assad

Suarez (10-5, 3.38 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 146 1/3 IP.

  • Is 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA on the road vs. 4-4 and a 4.27 ERA at home
  • Last start: 6 IP, 5 H, 0 ER in a 1-0 win vs. the Atlanta Braves last Thursday

Assad (1-2, 4.28 ERA) makes his 8th appearance (7th start). He has a 1.57 WHIP, 5.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 27 1/3 IP.

  • Is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA at home vs. 1-0 and a 2.81 ERA on the road
  • 4.10 ERA with .233 opponent batting average as a starter

Phillies at Cubs odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:23 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Phillies -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Cubs +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-112) | Cubs +1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Phillies at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 3, Cubs 2

Money line

The line here is too juicy. The books expect the Phillies to avoid the sweep and so do I, but you can’t wager it at that price. PHILLIES 1ST 5 INNINGS (-130) looks like a good bet considering the pitching matchup.

Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies are one of the worst teams ATS after a loss, covering just 27-of-69 attempts (39%).

The Cubs are the opposite, they are the 3rd best in MLB coming off a win. They have covered 39-of-68 (57%) games in that scenario.

They probably won’t win but I’d take the Cubs to cover. BET CUBS +1.5 (-108).

Over/Under

This pitching matchup, trend-wise, points towards the Under.

The Under is 5-1-1 in the Phillies’ last 7 road games against a right-handed starter, and the Cubs have gone under in 5 of their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter at Wrigley Field.

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-102).

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (41-43) and the Chicago Cubs (43-44) wrap up their four-game series Thursday at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago snapped its 11-game winning streak with an 8-3 victory over Philadelphia Wednesday as the Cubs jumped on Phillies starting RHP Zack Wheeler by scoring five runs in the first two innings.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1.

RHP Zach Eflin makes his 17th start for the Phillies. Eflin is 3-6 with a 4.13 ERA (96 IP, 44 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 64 at-bats with a .344/.386/.422 slash line, 7/4 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.

RHP Adbert Alzolay is on the mound for the Cubs. Alzolay is 4-8 with a 4.48 ERA (72 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 across 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K Saturday at the Cincinnati Reds.
  • 2021 home split: 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA (35 IP, 15 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB rate over seven starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Cubs -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Cubs +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cubs 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the CUBS (-110) for 1 unit because the Phillies and Eflin are a much weaker side on the road whereas Chicago and Alzolay have had a lot more success in Wrigley.

For instance, Philly is 17-27 in road games and Eflin is 1-5 on the road with a 5.71 ERA (2.25 home ERA), 1.33 WHIP (1.11 home WHIP) and a 6.3 K/BB rate (7.8 K/BB rate at home).

Furthermore, the Cubs are 27-15 at home and all of Alzolay’s numbers at home are better than his road splits.

Also, Philly’s bullpen ranks 28th in WAR, 25th in FIP and 21st in K-BB% while Chicago’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 in each of those advanced pitching categories.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Cubs -1.5 (+185) alternate run line because the payout is juicy. However, I’m staying away because the Phillies are 19-13 ATS with a plus-1.2 run line margin as a road ‘dog and Chicago is 12-16 ATS with a minus-1.2 run line margin as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a one-third unit because we are getting by far the worst of the number.

However, the presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing the Under while the “public” is betting the Over and oddsmakers have moved the Phillies-Cubs total down from the 10.5-run opener to the current number.

Moreover, the weather forecast is predicting 12 mph winds blowing in from centerfield, which really hurts a Chicago offense that ranks sixth in home runs hit per game.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (41-42) play the Chicago Cubs (42-44) Wednesday in the third game of their four-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly picked up a 15-10 win Tuesday and has drilled Chicago over the first two games of this series by a combined score of 28-13 while extending the Cubs losing skid to 11 games.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0.

RHP Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies. Wheeler is 6-4 with a 2.05 ERA (114 IP, 26 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 over 17 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K in Philadelphia’s 4-3 win over the San Diego Padres Friday.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 103 at-bats with a .243/.297/.417 slash line, 28/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 13 RBIs.

RHP Alec Mills is Chicago’s projected starter. Mills is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA (42 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.45 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 across five starts and 12 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 9 K at the Cincinnati Reds Friday.
  • 2021 home splits: 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 18 H, 3 BB and 9 K in one start and seven bullpen outings.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Cubs +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Cubs +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cubs 1

Money line (ML)

GIMME the PHILLIES (-130) for 1 unit because they have a massive edge in the starting pitching matchup and Chicago’s bullpen has been raked recently.

Wheeler is playing in his first All-Star game next week and rightfully so. He ranks second in WAR, fourth in xFIP (2.74), seventh in K-BB% (25.7%) and third in hard-hit rate (29.7%) amongst all starters with at least 50 innings pitched. Also, Chicago’s lineup has the seventh-lowest hard-hit rate vs. RHP.

Furthermore, over the past two weeks, the Cubs relievers have the second-highest ERA, are giving up the most home runs per nine innings, have the worst left-on-base percentage and the worst hard-hit rate.

In addition, over that same time span, the Cubs hitters have the fifth-worst WAR while the Phillies batters are ninth in WAR.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Philly’s bullpen is worse than Chicago’s and has been performing nearly as terrible over the past couple of weeks.

And despite the Phillies crushing the Cubs in the first two games of the series, Philly is still just 3-8 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-2.7 run line margin.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because I think Wheeler ends his dominant first half on a high note and the presumed “sharp” money is backing the Under whereas the “public” is taking the Over.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 60% of the money is on the Under while nearly three-fourths of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically in sports gambling it’s wiser to follow the money, especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction of the public.

This is a good spot to “fade the market” and zag on the past two Phillies-Cubs meetings soaring Over the total.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (40-42) play the Chicago Cubs (42-43) Tuesday in the second game of their four-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly raked Chicago in the first game of the series 13-3 Monday as the Phillies batters crushed 5 home runs.

Season series: Phillies lead 1-0.

RHP Aaron Nola is on the rubber for the Phillies. Nola is 5-5 with a 4.44 ERA (95 1/3 IP, 47 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 over 17 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-6, with 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 9 H, 0 BB and 11 K Wednesday against the Miami Marlins.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 68 at-bats with a .235/.325/.471 slash line, 22/10 K/BB, 4 HR and 10 RBIs.

RHP Jake Arrieta is Chicago’s projected starter. Arrieta is 5-8 with a 5.57 ERA (72 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 across 16 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 1 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 2 K in Chicago’s 15-7 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 169 at-bats with a .254/.344/.420 slash line, 33/22 K/BB, 5 HR and 16 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:34 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Cubs +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Phillies 8, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

I’d BET the PHILLIES (-140) for 1 unit as more of a fade of the Cubs who’ve lost 10 in a row and their starting pitcher, Arrieta, who’s 0-4 with a 7.82 ERA over his past seven starts.

Chicago came into the season with questions surrounding its future as its title-winning core of Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo all being impending free agents. There’s a solid chance Chicago’s recent slide is foreshadowing a long summer for the Cubs.

Furthermore, there’s been “sharp” line movement towards the Phillies as they opened as -119 money line favorites but the market has steamed Philly up 21 cents on the dollar to the current number.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Phillies -1.5 (+110) isn’t a fat enough payout considering Philly is 2-8 ATS as a road favorite with a minus-3.3 run line margin.

Also, the Cubs +1.5 (-135) having the sixth-highest winning percentage at home and the highest cover rate as a home underdog with the highest run line margin (Chicago is 10-2 ATS as a home ‘dog with a plus-4.0 run line margin).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 10 (-110) for a half unit because the ball was jumping out of Wrigley Field Monday and the weather forecast is predicting 11 mph winds blowing out to right-centerfield.

However, what’s holding me back from laying more on the Over is Philly’s 2-8 O/U record as a road favorite this season, Chicago’s 4-11-1 O/U record in Arrieta starts and since a vast majority of the market is backing the Over and I hate following crowds in sports betting.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

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Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (42-42) host the Philadelphia Phillies (39-42) Monday to start a four-game series at Wrigley Field. The series opener is scheduled for an 8:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago lost its ninth consecutive game Sunday at the Cincinnati Reds and has fallen 8.5 games back of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings.

Philadelphia failed to pull off a three-game sweep against the San Diego Padres after dropping the series finale 11-1 Sunday. The Phillies are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

Season series: Tied 0-0.

LHP Matt Moore is the Phillies projected starter. Moore is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across four starts and six relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 2 K in Philly’s 2-1 victory over the New York Mets June 25.
  • vs. Cubs on the current roster: 61 at-bats with a .230/.324/.492 slash line, 20/8 K/BB, 5 HR and 9 RBIs.

RHP Zach Davies makes his 18th start for the Cubs. Davies is 5-5 with a 4.32 ERA (83 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.43 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Loss, 2-1, with 4 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 6 K Tuesday at the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster: 73 at-bats with a .274/.337/.466 slash line, 16/7 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Phillies at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Cubs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 11 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Phillies 5, Cubs 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Phillies (+130) because I “lean” to Philly on the run line. What’s holding me back is the Cubs’ 26-13 home record and 13-10 record vs. left-handed pitching.

Also, Moore is a journeyman “back of the rotation” starter at best and his pitching peripherals vs. active Cubs hitters are far worse than Davies’ against current Phillies batters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES +1.5 (-140) for a half unit because Philly is 18-13 ATS as a road underdog this season and Chicago is just 12-15 ATS as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 11 (+100) for 1 unit as the best bet in Phillies-Cubs because the presumed “sharp” money is backing the Under while the “public” is betting the Over and both lineups have struggled recently.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 65% of the bets placed are on the Over but almost 70% of the money wagered is on the Under and typically it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the betting public.

Furthermore, over the past two weeks, both lineups are in the bottom 10 of several advanced hitting metrics such as WAR, wRC+, OPS and wOBA.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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