The Atlanta Braves (63-41) host the Philadelphia Phillies (55-48) Wednesday for the 2nd game of their back-to-back at Truist Park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 12:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Atlanta leads 6-5
The Braves pounded the Phillies 13-1 Tuesday with Atlanta LF Eddie Rosario going 3-for-5 with a double and 5 RBIs and rookie SP Spencer Strider striking out 13 Phillies in just 6 2/3 innings of work.
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Charlie Morton
Wheeler is 9-5 with a 2.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 113 2/3 IP over 19 starts.
- Last start: Won 8-7 Thursday at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 vs. the Braves: 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA (13 IP, 5 ER), 13 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 18 K in 2 starts.
Morton is 5-5 with a 4.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 110 IP over 20 starts.
- Last start: Lost 7-2 Wednesday at the Phillies with 5 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 vs. the Phillies: 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA (15 IP, 10 ER) 22 H, 1 HR, 7 BB and 14 K in 3 starts.
Phillies at Braves odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Braves -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 3
Money line
GIMME the BRAVES (-140) because they have the better lineup and bullpen and there’s “reverse line movement” headed towards Atlanta in the betting market.
For instance, Atlanta’s lineup outperforms Phillies vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (105-97), wOBA (.323-.310), ISO (.195-.164) and hard-hit rate (35.5-29.5%), per FanGraphs.
Also, Atlanta’s bullpen has a 5.2 WAR whereas Philly’s bullpen has a 3.1 WAR and the Braves relievers have better swing-and-miss and contact rates than the Phillies.
Finally, roughly two-thirds of the action is on the Phillies but Atlanta’s ML has gone from -133 on the opener up to the current number, according to Pregame.com. This is suspicious because common sense suggests oddsmakers would adjust the lines according to the market movement.
“FLAT-BET” 1 unit on the BRAVES (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the price.
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 8/31/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Morton is having an off-year while Wheeler has a 2.06 ERA in his last 5 starts vs. Atlanta. Furthermore, the Braves -1.5 (+155) are just 25-28 RL as home favorites and the Phillies +1.5 (-190) are 19-9 RL as road underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-115) because there’s more money on the Under whereas more bets have been placed on the Over 7.5 (-108) per Pregame.com. Since professional bettors put up a lot more dough than your average Joe, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.
That said, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-115) because the Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 Phillies-Braves meetings in Atlanta and Truist Park ranks 9th in park factor, aka a hitter-friendly venue.
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]
[mm-video type=playlist id=01fb7dafw2b08817yr player_id=none image=https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/wp-content/plugins/mm-video/images/playlist-icon.png]