Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (58-31) and Atlanta Braves (48-39) conclude their 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from Truist Park is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Braves 3-2

The Phillies offense only managed 1 run on 7 hits against the Braves in a 5-1 loss Saturday. LHP Ranger Suarez suffered his 2nd loss in his last 3 starts,  allowing 5 ER in 5  IP. SS Trea Turner provided the lone RBI on a single in the 3rd inning.

The Braves got a much needed win behind a brilliant performance from RHP Spencer Schwellenbach. (6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K) and the bullpen no-hit the Phillies over the final 3 innings. DH Marcell Ozuna and 2B Ozzie Albies both hit 2-run HRs.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

RHP Michael Mercado vs. RHP Reynaldo Lopez

Mercado (1-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 3rd MLB appearance and 2nd start. The 25-year-old rookie has a 0.67 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 6 IP.

  • First MLB start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-4 win at the Chicago Cubs Tuesday
  • Called up from Triple-A Lehigh Valley on June 23

Lopez (6-2, 1.83 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 5-3 home setback against San Francisco Giants Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits: 3-0, 1.40 ERA (45 IP, 8 R (7 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 7 starts
  • Only start vs Phillies: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 10-5 road victory Aug 4, 2019, as a member of the Chicago White Sox

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:12 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-142) | Braves -1.5 (+118)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Moneyline.

PASS.

The Braves (-180) will close out this series with a victory behind Lopez on Sunday afternoon. I am not interested in paying nearly 2 units though, I’ll keep my bet to the moneyline.

Run line/Against the spread

BET BRAVES -1.5 (+118).

Needless to say, I was shocked by the result of Saturday’s game. I thought Suarez would coast to an easy victory, instead it was Schwellenbach who looked like the veteran.

Atlanta puts its most consistent pitcher on the mound Sunday, Lopez has allowed 2 runs or fewer in his last 9 starts. In fact, Lopez has allowed more than 2 runs, just once all season. He hasn’t lost a start since May 25. The Braves are also 28-17 on the season at Truist Park.

Mercado looked solid in his first MLB start, but that was against the Cubs, not the Atlanta Braves.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-112).

I’ve got all the confidence in the world that Lopez will keep this Phillies team in check because that’s what he’s done all season long. He’s allowed a grand total of 4 ER in his last 5 starts (26 1/3 IP).

Mercado only allowed 2 hits in his first MLB start. He will not do that again on Sunday, but I’m confident he won’t get shelled.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (58-30) and Atlanta Braves (47-39) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Truist Park is slated for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

Philadelphia won 8-6 against the Braves Friday, its 4th win in 5 games. SS Trea Turner had a huge night going 2-for-4 with 4 RBIs, including 2 home runs. RHP Aaron Nola earned his 10th win of the season, allowing 3 ER while striking out 8 in 6 innings.

Friday’s loss was the Braves’ 4th in their last 5 games. LHP Max Fried was roughed up for 5 ER on 11 hits in 6 innings. Despite the loss, 2B Ozzie Albies went 3-for-4 with a home run and 3 runs scored. The Braves also got a 3-run blast from DH Marcell Ozuna and a 2-run shot from 3B Austin Riley.

Phillies at Braves projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Suarez (10-2, 2.27 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 103 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 0 K in 7-6 home victory against Miami Marlins Sunday
  • 2024 road splits: 5-2, 2.06 ERA (52 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 8 starts
  • 2024 vs. Braves: 0-0, 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 1 start, a 5-4 home win March 31
  • Career vs. Braves (regular season): 2-2, 3.23 ERA (53 IP, 19 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 17 appearances (8 starts)

Schwellenbach (1-4, 5.68 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-2 home setback against Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday
  • 2024 home splits: 1-2, 4.50 ERA (16 IP, 8 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 3 starts
  • Never faced Phillies before

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Phillies -104 (bet $104 to win $100) | Braves -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Braves +1.5 (-182)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Phillies at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Braves 2

Moneyline.

PASS.

The odds aren’t bad here, but I’m going to put my wager on the run line with those plus odds.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+150).

The Phillies have the best record in MLB and are 25-16 on the road this season. They’ve won 4 of their last 5, while the Braves have lost 4 of their last 5 — 2 teams seemingly going in different directions.

Philadelphia also has one of the best pitchers in the National League going Saturday. He’s allowed more than 2 ER just once in his last 6 starts. Meanwhile, Schwellenbach has just 1 win on the season and has allowed at least 4 earned runs in each of his last 2 starts.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-112).

I’ve got all the confidence in the world that Suarez will keep this Braves team in check Saturday evening. He has allowed 5 ER total over his last 28 IP against Atlanta.

The only question is how many runs will the Phillies score against Schwellenbach. This is their first look at him, so that gives him a slight advantage, but they’ll probably put up 3-4 runs.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Fantasy baseball help from BaseballHQ.com:
Subscribe now to dominate the competition.

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