Phillies at Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The Philadelphia Phillies (63-49) and New York Mets (73-40) meet Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET to continue a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 9-4. The Phillies snapped a 4-game series losing streak by downing the Mets 2-1 in a 10-inning Friday lid-lifter.

The Phillies are 13-2 over their last 15 games. Philadelphia hurlers have logged a fine 3.18 ERA over that stretch. The club is 9-1 over its last 10 games on the road following Friday’s win.

The Mets had won 6 in a row heading into this set. They are 15-3 and have outscored opponents 106-59 since July 24.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Jacob deGrom

Nola (8-8, 3.17 ERA) has authored a 0.95 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 144 2/3 IP across 22 starts.

Has posted a 3.86 ERA across 16 1/3 IP in 3 meetings with the Mets this season.
Owns a 1.51 ERA over his last 59 2/3 IP on the road.

DeGrom (1-0, 2.53 ERA) returns to the mound for his 3rd start of the season. He has a 0.47 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 15.2 K/9 through 10 2/3 IP.

Did not make his first start of the season until July 30 due to a prolonged stay on the IL with a shoulder injury.
Has held current Philadelphia bats to an aggregate .608 OPS.

Phillies at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Mets -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-140) | Mets -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Phillies at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 3, Phillies 2

Money line

PASS: slightly more leverage can be gained on the Run Line.

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Run line/Against the spread

There is some baked-in “Phillies-and-Under” sway to this series, and those were the calls in this corner for Friday’s opener. Saturday’s lean is similar but on smaller margins.

Go with a partial-unit play on PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-140). Feel free to go all in at -135 or better.

Over/Under

Both offenses are a little over-amped compared to their support analytics. The opposite holds true for both of these bullpens, and the immediate prognosis for both is strong.

The mound matchup is an elite one. The total mostly reflects that, but there is a sliver of value remaining on the low side.

TAKE THE UNDER 6.5 (-110). Consider dialing down the play to a half unit unless the price on 6.5 gets closer to +100 territory.

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The Philadelphia Phillies (62-49) and New York Mets (73-39) meet Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET to open a 3-game NL East series at Citi Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies at Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 9-3. The Mets have won 4 in a row from the Phils dating back to May 8.

The Phillies head north off a 6-1 home stand. Since July 27, Philadelphia pitching has dealt out a 3.37 ERA. The club has gone 12-2 over that stretch. One thing to keep an eye on, though, OF Kyle Schwarber left Thursday’s game with a calf issue. He’s likely questionable for this one.

The Mets have ace RHP Max Scherzer on the hill, and they’re 8-2 and 15-5 over their last 10 and 20 games, respectively. They are getting healthy at the right time.

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Phillies at Mets projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Suarez (8-5, 3.68 ERA) is tabbed for his 20th start of the season. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 100 1/3 IP.

Owns a 2.63 ERA since June 17.
Has pitched 11 scoreless innings over his last 2 road starts.

Scherzer (8-2, 1.98 ERA) owns a 0.90 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 95 2/3 IP across 15 starts.

Coming off 7 shutout IP (and 11K) in his last start (Saturday vs. Atlanta Braves).
Has authored a 1.77 ERA, 0.85 WHIP across 45 2/3 IP at Citi Field.
Has held current Philadelphia batters to a low-contact .597 OPS in past meetings.