The Philadelphia Phillies (65-55) and Toronto Blue Jays (67-54) wrap up a 2-game set Wednesday at Rogers Centre. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-1
The Phillies lost 2-1 as -110 favorites in the series opener Tuesday. Philadelphia has lost 3 in a row but is still in 1st place in the NL Wild Card standings.
Blue Jays 2B Cavan Biggio was hit by a pitch with the bases loaded in the 8th inning, which gave the Blue Jays a 2-1 lead. Toronto remains in the final AL Wild Card spot, with a 2-game buffer on the Seattle Mariners.
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Phillies at Blue Jays projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Kevin Gausman
Nola (9-8, 4.49 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 148 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 6-2 home victory vs. Washington Nationals Thursday
- 2023 road stats: 5-5, 5.15 ERA (85 2/3 IP, 49 ER) in 14 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-2, 4.94 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 15 ER) over 5 starts
- 2023 vs. Blue Jays: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 1 start, an 8-4 home victory May 9
Gausman (9-6, 3.04 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 139 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 1-0 victory at Cleveland Guardians last Wednesday
- 2023 home stats: 3-2, 2.71 ERA (69 2/3 IP, 21 ER) in 11 starts
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-3, 3.70 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 17 ER) over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
- 2023 vs. Phillies: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (6 IP), 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 1 start, a 2-1 road loss in 10 innings May 10
Phillies at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Blue Jays -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Phillies at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 3, Blue Jays 2
Moneyline
The Phillies should bounce back after losing 3 straight, especially after such a close game Tuesday.
While Gausman has been the Blue Jays’ best starting pitcher this season, Toronto is just 2-5 in his last 7 starts. Both offenses struggled in the series opener, and Philadelphia is being undervalued in this spot.
BET PHILLIES (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
Philadelphia +1.5 (-165) should hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when the Phillies should win straight up.
PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.
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Over/Under
Gausman has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 9 starts, and the Under is 29-18-3 (61.7%) this season when the Blue Jays are home favorites, according to Teamrankings.com.
Both offenses struggled Tuesday, and we should see more of the same in the series finale.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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