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The Philadelphia Phillies (64-37) and Minnesota Twins (55-45) have split the 1st 2 games of a 3-game set that will wrap up on Wednesday. First pitch at Target Field is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Phillies have dropped 4 of their last 6 games, but still hold a commanding 9-game lead in the NL East.
The Twins have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are at risk of losing their loose grip on a Wild Card spot.
Phillies at Twins projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Steven Okert
Nola (11-4, 3.54 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 124 2/3 IP.
- Has a 3.67 ERA, 8.0 K/9, and 1.0 HR/9 in 9 road starts across 56 1/3 IP
- Has made 1 career start at Target Field, back in 2016, and it was a rough one, as he allowed 7 ER in just 3 IP
- He’s gone 6-plus innings in 10 of his last 12 starts, but failed to reach the mark last time out when he allowed 4 ER in 5 IP at Pittsburgh
Okert (3-1, 4.40 ERA) makes his 35th appearance and 1st star, and only the 3rd of his career. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 28 2/3 IP.
- Has allowed 8 ER in 7 2/3 IP over his last 10 appearances, but a .440 BABIP during that time deserves much of the blame for his struggles
- The sample is tiny (12 IP) but he owns a 6.75 ERA at home this season with an ugly 5/7 K/BB
- David Festa is expected to handle the bulk of relief duties, and while he boasts a 13.3 K/9 at Triple-A this season, he has struggled lately. Over his last 7 starts (5 at Triple-A, 2 in MLB) he has a 7.76 ERA and 2.3 HR/9.
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Phillies at Twins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Twins +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+115) | Twins +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: +-105 | U: -115)
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Phillies at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Twins 3
Moneyline
The Phillies own the best record in all of baseball as well as the best run differential (+110). They are 15-5 in games started by Nola this season and they are a good bet to add another one on Wednesday. Take the PHILLIES -145.
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins rank 6th in OPS vs. RHP while the Phillies check in at 7th in the category. Philadelphia has the huge edge in the pitching matchup, as Okert won’t last long and Festa has had trouble getting people out in recent weeks. Prioritize the mneyline, but PHILLIES -1.5 (-105) is a recommended play as well.
Over/Under
The Phillies are set up for a good day and Nola will have his hands full taming the Minnesota bats. As noted above, they hit right-handed pitching well, and they rank 7th in runs per game at home (4.86). There should be just enough offense to push this total OVER 8 (-105).
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