The Cleveland Guardians (47-49) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (52-44) to Progressive Field for a 3-game series starting Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since Cleveland won 2 of 3 games in 2019
The Phillies won the 1st of the 3-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, but ended up losing the next games. They are 4-2 over their last 6 games. Philadelphia sits 2nd in the NL East and is 26-25 on the road.
The Guardians are 2nd in the AL Central, 2 games behind the 1st-place Minnesota Twins. They are 24-22 at home this season and 5-5 in their last 10 games.
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Phillies at Guardians projected starters
LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Gavin Williams
Suarez (2-4, 3.84 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 68 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-4 win against the San Diego Padres on Saturday
- Phillies are 7-5 in his starts
- Has allowed at least 3 ER in 3 straight games, but hadn’t allowed 3 ER in a game since May 24 prior to that
Williams (1-2, 3.94 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 29 2/3 innings.
- Has at least 5 IP in all 5 starts
- Guardians are 3-2 in his 5 starts
Phillies at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Phillies -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Guardians +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+135) | Guardians +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Phillies at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
BET GUARDIANS (+105).
Cleveland is 7-6 straight up as a home underdog this season, and it has also been better than Philadelphia when coming off a loss, which both are in this situation. The Guardians are 27-21 following a loss while Philadelphia is 20-23 after a loss.
The Phillies are also just barely over .500 on the road, and Suarez hasn’t played well as of late. Williams has been consistently strong on the mound and should do well against a struggling Phillies side.
Back the GUARDIANS (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Neither side has much value here, and betting any team-specific wager would be better on the moneyline.
The Guardians are too pricey to take at +1.5 (-160), and the Phillies have struggled on the road and following a loss, making their -1.5 (+135) not worth the value either.
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Over/Under
LEAN OVER 8.5 (-110).
While the Guardians are just 39-53-4 O/U on the season, they have gone Over in 4 straight games, scoring 10 or more runs in 2 of those. They have gone Over in 6 of their last 8 games.
The Phillies are a similar story. They are just 38-49-9 O/U on the season, yet they are 6-3 O/U over their last 9 games. They have scored at least 6 runs in 3 of their last 6.
Considering the trends, back the OVER 8.5 (-110).
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