Philadelphia Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 3

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (3-2) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (3-1) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets have dropped both of the past two outings after winning the first three games of the new season. That includes a 5-4 setback in the series opener in Philadelphia as the total pushed Monday.

The Phillies picked up the 5-4 win behind LHP Ranger Suarez in the opener. Philadelphia has averaged 4.8 runs per game through four outings while yielding 3.8 runs per outing.

Mets at Phillies: Projected starters

Mets RHP Tylor Megill vs. Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler

Megill picked up the win Thursday in Washington, allowing just 3 hits with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts across 5 scoreless innings.

Went 1-4 with a 4.32 ERA with a .260 opponent batting average in 41 2/3 IP in 8 starts on the road in 2021 while striking out 41 batters.
Yielded 4 runs, 5 hits and 1 walk across 4 2/3 innings in a loss at Philadelphia last August in his only career appearance against the Phillies.

Wheeler (14-10, 2.78 ERA in 2021) posted a 1.01 WHIP with 247 strikeouts across 32 starts in a tremendous 2021 season.

Went 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA and .200 opponent batting average with 149 strikeouts across 124 2/3 IP in 18 starts at home.
Was 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA across 34 1/3 IP over five starts against the New York Mets, his former team, in 2021.

Mets at Phillies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Mets at Phillies prediction and picks

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 2

Money line

The PHILLIES (-155) won the series opener, keeping up their mastery of the Mets. Philadelphia is 20-8 in the past 28 home games against New York while going 7-1 in the past eight meetings overall. It’s a good bet that the good times will continue for Philly with Wheeler on the bump.

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Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+130) are worth a small wager on the run line.

Their first two wins of the season were by more than 2 runs, but the series opener was a 1-run game, so be careful. Still, with Wheeler, they should get really good pitching in a lower-scoring game.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8.5 (-102) is the lean after the total pushed in the series opener. Wheeler kept scores down last season, and the Under is 8-1-2 in the past 11 meetings while going 3-0-1 in the past four battles in Philadelphia.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (3-1) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (2-1) Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. (FS1). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first meeting of 2022 between these NL East rivals. These teams met 19 times in 2021, with the Phillies winning 10 of the meetings.

The Mets won the first three games of the season in Washington, outscoring the Nats 17-4, before losing the series finale, 4-2, Sunday.

The Phillies won the first two games of the season in an interleague series against the Oakland A’s, outscoring the opposition 14-7 before falling 4-1 in the finale Sunday.

Mets at Phillies: Projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Walker (7-11, 4.47 ERA in 2021) makes his first start of the season. He recorded 146 strikeouts with a .225 opponent batting average in 159 IP across 29 starts and one relief appearance.

Walker was 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 14 starts on the road across 68 IP, with the opposition hitting .258 against him.
Walker went 0-2 with a 3.76 ERA across five starts against Philadelphia in 2021, striking out 21 batters across 26.2 IP.

Suarez (8-5, 1.36 ERA) makes his first start of the season. He posted an impressive .194 opponent batting average across 106 IP with 107 strikeouts in 12 starts and 27 relief appearances in 2021.

Suarez went 6-1 with three saves in 14 relief appearances and eight starts with a complete game in 65.2 IP at home in 2021.
Suarez faced the Mets three times, including one start, while going 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA across 4 2/3 IP last season.

Mets at Phillies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Mets at Phillies prediction and picks

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

The PHILLIES (-155) are worth a play as moderate favorites in the series opener. Philadelphia dominated New York last season, winning six of the final seven meetings, while going 5-2 in the final seven meetings at “The Vault”. Suarez looked like the real deal, and he’ll do a good job against Walker, who struggled on the road in 2021.

Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+130) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line. In each of the team’s first two wins of the season, the Phils also won by at least two runs in each outing. Look for the Phils to jump all over Walker early and often.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (-107) is the lean, but play it lightly.

The wind will be blowing out to straightaway center field at 9-12 mph, so that could aid the hitters. It’s always difficult to play an Under at a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park anyway, but especially so when the wind is blowing out. Forget the fact the Under was 6-0-1 in the final seven meetings between these teams last season.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (81-75) visit Truist Park Tuesday to start a pivotal three-game series with the NL East rival Atlanta Braves (83-72) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta has won seven of its past eight games, which includes a three-game sweep this past weekend at the San Diego Padres. Philly had its five-game winning streak snapped Sunday in a 6-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both teams are 7-3 over their last 10 games. The Phillies are one loss or one St. Louis Cardinals win from being eliminated from the Wild Card race. They sit 2 1/2 games behind the Braves in the NL East.

Season series: Phillies lead 9-7.

RHP Zack Wheeler is Philly’s projected starter. Wheeler is 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA (206 1/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 over 31 starts.

Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 4-3 victory vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday with a stat line of 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 9 K.
Wheeler is 2-1 in four starts against Atlanta this season with a 1.35 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.94 WHIP and 5.7 K/BB.
vs. Braves on the current roster: 4.15 FIP with a .257 batting average (BA), .328 wOBA, .379 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 23.6 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 199 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Charlie Morton makes his 32nd start for the Braves. Morton is 13-6 with a 3.53 ERA (176 IP, 69 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 8 K in Atlanta’s 6-4 loss at the Arizona Diamondbacks Thursday.
Morton is 2-2 against Philly this year with a 3.06 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 9 BB and 21 K in four starts.
vs. Phillies on the current roster: 3.50 FIP with a .284 BA, .320 wOBA, .365 xSLG, 20.9 K% and 85.4 mph EV in 182 PA.

Phillies at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Braves -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Braves -1.5 (+160)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Braves 4, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the BRAVES (-130) for 1 unit because their lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Phillies’ relief pitching has been awful this month.

For instance, Atlanta’s lineup ranks higher than Philly’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ and wOBA and has the seventh-best hard-hit rate in the majors compared to the Phillies’ 25th-best hard-hit rate against righties.

Furthermore, the Philly bullpen’s ERA is more than 2 runs higher than Atlanta’s in September, and the Phillies relief pitching ranks in the bottom-8 of the league in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and home run per nine-inning rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because betting on Atlanta to cover at home has been very costly this season—the Braves are 18-46 ATS as home favorites—while Philly has been great for backers in away games—the Phillies are 30-14 ATS as a road underdog. Also, eight of the 16 Phillies-Braves meetings this season have been decided by a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-107) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I much prefer Atlanta straight-up than the total in this contest.

However, this is a “pros vs. joes” game in the betting market, according to Pregame.com. More than 70% of the cash is wagered on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. But, the sportsbooks are reacting to the presumed sharp money as the total has been brought down from the 8-run opener to the current price.

That said, both lineups are stacked with mashers including the reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman and one of the favorites to win the 2021 NL MVP Bryce Harper. Plus Philly’s bullpen could certainly get raked, and Atlanta is 15-14 O/U when Morton gets the start.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (72-77) host the Philadelphia Phillies (76-72) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 10-8.

RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA (165 IP, 64 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance for the Phillies and Texas Rangers.

Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 7 K Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs.
Gibson beat New York, 4-2, Aug. 6 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
vs. Mets on the current roster (144 PA): 4.81 FIP with a .328 batting average (BA), .379 wOBA, .378 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Rich Hill takes the ball for the Mets. Hill is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA (144 IP, 62 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 28 starts and one relief appearance for the Mets and Tampa Bay Rays.

Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 4 K Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Hill is 0-3 in nine starts and one relief outing with a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB since joining the Mets.
vs. Phillies on the current roster (58 PA): 1.36 FIP with a .204 BA, .216 wOBA, .243 xSLG, 27.6 K% and 89.1 mph EV.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-130) because we have a “line freeze” in the betting market that favors New York, Hill’s advanced numbers against Philly’s lineup are more impressive than Gibson’s vs. the Mets and New York has been hitting better this month.

Roughly two-thirds of the action is on Philly’s money line but this line hasn’t budged since the opener, according to Pregame.com. What that tells me is oddsmakers would like to take more pro-Phillies money at this price. So my thought would be to do the opposite.

Furthermore, the Phillies are 21-25 vs. lefty starters and are 23rd in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching. While Hill isn’t a top of the rotation guy for a playoff team, he has done well against Philadelphia’s lineup and grades in the 76th percentile in hard-hit rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t like New York’s money line enough to lay it with the Mets -1.5 (+160), even with the chunky payout, because New York is 17-38 ATS as a home favorite despite being 35-20 straight up in that situation.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit because the sharp side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is backing the Over.

More than 70% of the cash is on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Also, these teams have a combined 4-12 O/U record when these starters take the mound, the Under is 5-0-1 in the last six Phillies-Mets games and Citi Field has the third-lowest runs scored by park factors.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (75-72) stop by Citi Field Saturday to continue their three-game series with the New York Mets (72-76) at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly beat New York 4-3 Friday in the series opener as Phillies ace Zack Wheeler earned a win with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

Season series: Phillies lead 7-4.

RHP Aaron Nola is Philly’s projected starter. Nola is 7-8 with a 4.58 ERA (163 IP, 83 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 over 29 starts.

Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 5-4 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
Nola is 0-1 in three starts this year against New York with a 2.51 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 4 BB and 24 K.
vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.39 FIP with a .245 batting average (BA), .319 wOBA, .348 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.0 K% and 86.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 283 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his 10th start for the Mets. Carrasco is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 home victory over the New York Yankees Sunday.
2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 6.66 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in six starts.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Philles 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-105) because we are getting “reverse line movement” in New York’s direction, Nola is less effective on the road and the Mets have hit much better this month than the Phillies.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, nearly 95% of the cash wagered is on the Phillies, but oddsmakers are moving their money line down from the -120 opener. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Also, Nola is just 3-5 in 16 road starts with a 5.56 ERA (3.45 road ERA), 1.24 WHIP (0.99 road WHIP) and 9.5 K/BB (4.1 K/BB on the road).

Finally, New York’s lineup has been a lot more productive in September. The Mets rank fourth in WAR, sixth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+ this month.

However, I can only “LEAN” METS (-105) because Carrasco has put together just one quality start and New York has lost five of its last six games, including four straight.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS +1.5 (-180) because I’d rather be greedy and bet New York’s money line at nearly even money.

But, the Mets on the run line is probably a better play since New York is 14-6 ATS as a home underdog while Philly has the second-worst cover rate as a road favorite at 6-24 ATS.

Furthermore, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as there’s more money on New York’s run line but more bets have been placed on Philly covering (according to Pregame.com). Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Lastly, this might be unconventional, but I wouldn’t rule out throwing the Mets +1.5 (-180) into a parlay with perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) for a plus-money payout.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-122) because I’m not totally sold on either starter and have a hunch this total is just too low.

The reason the total is a no-go is I just don’t have a good enough read on the total and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas the public is betting Over. I don’t know what the “wiseguys” see, but I don’t want to fade them in this spot.

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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (67-64) play the second game of their three-game series with the Washington Nationals (55-75) Tuesday with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly took the series opener Monday by jumping out to a 3-run lead after the third inning. It held on to win 7-4.

The Phillies are still lingering around the NL playoff race as they sit 3.5 games back of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings and 3 games back of the Cincinnati Reds for the second NL Wild Card berth.

Season series: Phillies lead 11-6.

LHP Matt Moore is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 2-4 with a 6.12 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 44 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 12 starts and eight relief appearances.

Last outing: Loss, 8-7, with 4 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 2 K Thursday against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Moore lost to Washington July 27, 6-4, with a stat line of 4 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 3 K.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster (59 PA): 8.95 FIP with a .321 batting average (BA), .446 wOBA, 20.3 K% and 84.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Patrick Corbin gets the nod for the Nationals. He is 7-13 with a 6.09 ERA (136 IP, 92 ER), 1.40 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 25 starts.

Last outing: Loss, 7-5, with 3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K Thursday at the Miami Marlins.
Corbin is 1-1 against Philly this season with a 4.26 ERA (19 IP, 9 ER), 19 H, 2 BB and 19 K through three starts.
- vs. Phillies on the current roster (210 PA): 3.39 FIP with a .250 BA, .299 wOBA, .377 xSLG, 21.0 K% and 86.8 mph EV.

Phillies at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Phillies -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Nationals -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Nationals +1.5 (-190)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Nationals 8, Phillies 5

Money line (ML)

GIMME the NATIONALS (-117) for 1 unit because this is a much better spot for them and there’s heavy “reverse line movement” (RLM) in Washington’s direction

The Nationals are 8-3 overall as a home favorite against lefty starters with a plus-29.8% return on investment (ROI) and a plus-2.18 average margin of victory.

Corbin has stronger pitching peripherals vs. Phillies hitters than Moore does against the Nationals and Washington’s lineup is second in wRC+, first in wOBA, eighth in BB/K and 13th in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching.

Lastly, this game opened with Washington as a +110 money line underdog before it was dropped to the current number. However, according to Pregame.com, 80% of the action is on Philly and it’s a red flag whenever sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the NATIONALS -1.5 (+160) ALTERNATE RUN LINE for a tiny wager, if at all, because I like Washington’s money line enough in this spot to “sprinkle” on the run line.

Moreover, the Nationals are 6-5 ATS with a plus-18.6% ROI as a home favorite going against a lefty starter. The Phillies are 6-7 ATS with a minus-26.4% ROI as a road underdog when facing a left-handed starter with a minus-1.39 average run differential.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 9.5 (-105) because both starters are bottom of the rotation guys and have an ERA north of 6.00.

Since there’s one-sided action in the betting market favoring the Over, I’d prefer not to follow the crowd in this spot.

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Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (64-64) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (44-86) Saturday for the third game of their four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

These teams split the first two games with Arizona winning the opener 8-7 and Philly winning Friday 7-6 in extra innings.

Season series: D-Backs lead 4-1.

RHP Humberto Meija makes his second start for the D-Backs. Meija earned a no-decision in his first start Monday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K in Arizona’s 6-5 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

RHP Kyle Gibson gets the nod for the Phillies. Gibson is 9-5 with a 3.06 ERA (144 IP, 49 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 23 starts and one relief appearance for Philly and the Texas Rangers.

Last outing: Win, 7-4, with 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sunday at the San Diego Padres.
Gibson lost at the D-Backs Aug. 17, 3-2, with a stat line of 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB and 5 K.
Stats since joining Philly: 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA (31 IP, 13 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in four starts and one bullpen outing.

Diamondbacks at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

Money line: Diamondbacks +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Phillies -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Phillies 5, Diamondbacks 1

Money line (ML)

PASS.

Even though I “lean” Philly -205 is too expensive given their 3-7 record over the last 10 games, which includes them getting swept in a three-game series at Arizona from Aug. 17-19.

I also don’t see a lot of value in backing the D-Backs in this spot because the Phillies have a winning record at home and against righty starters.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES -1.5 (+105) for a half unit only because there’s “reverse line movement” in the betting market as both the pros and the Joes are taking Philly’s run line but the line is moving in Arizona’s direction.

The D-Backs are just 10-15 ATS as road underdogs facing a righty starter with a minus-22.2% return on investment and an average score of 3.9-6.4.

Arizona’s bullpen is the only one in the majors that has a lower WAR than Philly’s and the D-Backs relievers also rank dead-last in left-on-base percentage and FIP.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-102) for a half unit because the presumed “sharp” money in the market is backing the Under while the public is betting the Over according to Pregame.com.

Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Furthermore, the most runs Gibson has allowed in a start for the Phillies was the 3 earned runs he surrendered in his last outing against Arizona. I’m expecting him to put together a quality start against an Arizona lineup that has the fourth-fewest wRC+ in MLB.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (63-61) host the Tampa Bay Rays (77-48) Tuesday to start a two-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rays vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Rays lead 2-0.

RHP Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays. Rasmussen is 1-1 with a 3.64 ERA (47 IP, 19 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in four starts and 25 relief appearances.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 IP, 0ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Tampa’s 10-0 victory over the Baltimore Orioles Aug. 17.
Road splits: 1-1 with a 3.13 ERA (23 IP, 8 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 4.1 K/BB in three starts and 10 bullpen outings.
Starting pitching splits: 0-0 with a 2.77 ERA (13 IP, 4 ER), 5 H, 4 BB and 12 K in four starts.

LHP Ranger Suarez gets the nod for the Phillies. Suarez is 5-4 with a 1.47 ERA (55 IP, 9 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 over four starts and 27 relief appearances.

Last outing: Loss, 4-2, with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 4 BB and 2 K Wednesday at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Home splits: 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 0.75 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB in two starts and 14 bullpen outings.
Starting pitching splits: 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 10 BB and 11 K in four starts.

Rays at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:48 a.m. ET.

Money line: Rays -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Rays -1.5 (+135) | Phillies -1.5 (-175)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Rays 6, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

GIMME the RAYS (-115) for 1 unit because sharp line movement has steamed Tampa up from a -110 favorite on the opening line to the current number and the Rays have an edge in bullpen pitching and hitting.

Tampa’s lineup has the highest wRC+ in August, the third-best wOBA and ninth-best BB/K while Philly’s lineup is below-average in both wRC+ and wOBA.

Both starters are more openers for a bullpen day and if we are going to see a lot of each bullpen then Tampa becomes an even stronger play.

The Rays relievers rank in the top 10 of FIP, home run per nine-inning rate and K-BB% while the Phillies have the third-worst home run per nine-inning rate and the fourth-worst FIP.

Also, Tampa is 10-5 in interleague contests while Philly is just 6-9, and the Rays have the third-best winning percentage on the road.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Phillies have the third-highest cover rate as a home underdog at 15-6 ATS and Tampa only has a plus-2 run differential in interleague games with an 8-7 ATS record despite being 10-5 overall.

The presumed “sharp” side of the market is backing Philly on the run line while the public is betting the Rays -1.5 (+125) and typically you want to follow the money in sports betting.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-102) for a half unit because Tampa is 20-8-2 O/U as a road favorite, these teams have a combined 21-9 O/U record in interleague contests and the Over has cashed in three of the last five Rays-Phillies meetings since the beginning of last season.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Cincinnati Reds (62-54) visit Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies (60-55). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Reds vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cincy snapped a three-game losing streak by clubbing the Atlanta Braves 12-3 in the series finale of their set and is 6-4 in its last 10 games.

Philly has stormed to the front of the NL East thanks to an 8-2 record in their last 10 games and a 13-7 mark across the last 20. However, they did just lose two of three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Season series: Reds lead 2-1.

RHP Tyler Mahle is Cincinnati’s projected starter. Mahle is 9-3 with a 3.78 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 23 starts.

Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 7 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 10 K Sunday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
2021 road splits: 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB in 12 starts.

RHP Zack Wheeler makes his 24th start for the Phillies. Wheeler is 10-6 with a 2.42 ERA (156 IP, 42 ER), 0.99 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9.

Last outing: Win, 3-0, CG with 9 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 11 K Sunday against the New York Mets.
2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 2.02 ERA (98 IP, 22 ER), 0.83 WHIP and a 7.7 K/BB in 14 starts.

Reds at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:28 a.m. ET.

Money line: Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Reds +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+120)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Reds 5, Phillies 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the REDS (+140) because I’m taking Cincy’s run line, Mahle has been terrific on the road this year, Cincy’s lineup is more productive against right-handed pitching and the Reds relievers have pitched much better than Philly’s since the All-Star Game.

For instance, the Reds rank sixth wRC+, seventh in hard-hit rate and first in wOBA vs. righties. While the Phillies are 21st in wRC+, 16th in wOBA and 23rd in hard-hit rate.

Also, Cincy’s bullpen has been mediocre to above average in the second half of the season (10th in xFIP and 13th in SIERA) while Philly’s bullpen has been awful (27th in both SIERA and K-BB% and 25th in xFIP).

Wheeler is coming off perhaps his best pitching performance of the year with a 108-pitch CG shutout so I’m banking on slight regression or at least a lesser workload.

Furthermore, according to pregame.com, there’s a “line freeze” in the betting market as nearly 70% of the cash and action is on the Phillies. However, the line hasn’t adjusted much from Tipico’s opener and most sportsbooks have stuck near their original price despite the one-sided action.

I’m okay putting a LIGHT WAGER on the REDS (+140) and fade the market because Wheeler is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young on most sportsbooks who’s coming off an amazing start so all the public action adds up.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Definitely BET the REDS +1.5 (-150) heavier than or instead of their money line because of Cincy’s bullpen, pitching and hitting edges described above. On top of that, Philly is 14-23 ATS as a home favorite and Cincy is 28-13 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-110) because we have a “pros vs. joes” situation in the betting market as, per pregame.com, nearly 90% of the cash wagered on the total is with the Under and more than 70% of the bets placed are on the Over.

Typically in sports betting it’s sharper to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the masses.

Lastly, the Phillies are 8-14 O/U when Wheeler gets the start and the Reds are 4-6-2 O/U in Mahle’s 12 road starts.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (56-52) travel to Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (56-53) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York has lost four of its last six games, and seven of the last 10, and is now just a half-game in front of Philly for first in the NL East. The Phillies are 12-9 since the All-Star Game but have won five straight games entering Friday.

Season series: Mets lead 8-5.

RHP Marcus Stroman makes his 23rd start for the Mets. Stroman is 7-10 with a 2.80 ERA (122 IP, 38 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9.

Last outing: Loss, 7-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K against the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
Stroman is 2-2 this season against Philly with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in four starts.
vs. Phillies on the current roster (170 PA): 2.80 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .259 wOBA, .367 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. Gibson is 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA (119 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 20 starts.

Last outing: Win, 15-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
vs. Mets on the current roster (75 PA): 5.49 FIP with a .354 BA, .425 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 22.7 K% and 85.9 mph EV.

Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-140) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-110) for a half unit because Philly has been raking lately and I’m higher on Gibson than Stroman in this spot. Also, Philly is 31-21 at home while New York is 23-32 on the road.

Philly’s lineup ranks second in WAR, third in wOBA, sixth in wRC+, and eighth in hard-contact rate over the last two weeks. On the other hand, New York’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 in each of those categories in the past 14 days.

I’m hesitant to fully endorse the Phillies in this spot because their bullpen is terrible. Philly’s relievers have the fifth-worst FIP and home run per nine-inning rate and the ninth-worst K-BB%.

Usually, I’d be touting Philly’s First 5 Innings money line but Tipico Sportsbook only offers a three-way First 5 Innings money line so instead of chopping if it were tied after the 5th inning, we’d lose.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Phillies +1.5 (-180) is far too pricey considering how unreliable their bullpen has been. However, it’s a line I’ll keep my eye on throughout the day because Philly’s run line has a bit of value.

The reasons being the Phillies are an MLB-best 13-4 ATS as a home underdog and the Mets are 7-22 ATS with a minus-2.1 run line margin as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-112) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in seven of the last Mets-Phillies meetings in Philly and New York is 31-21-2 O/U on the road.

However, it’s only a slight “lean” since we are getting the worst of the number because the market has steamed this total up from the 8.5-run opener to the current price. I’m always leery about following a crowd in sports betting, which is another cause for concern with my OVER 9.5 (-112) lean.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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