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2023 Honda Classic prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Honda Classic with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The PGA Tour begins the Florida swing of the 2023 schedule this week at the 2023 Honda Classic in Palm Beach Gardens. PGA National will once again host this event, pitting competitors against the “Bear Trap,” one of the toughest 3-hole stretches in golf.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Honda Classic odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

After the Genesis Invitational featured a star-studded field, it will be a weaker group of players teeing it up this week. Sungjae Im is the favorite to win (+900) and he’s the highest-ranked player in the field in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings at No. 11 in the poll. Sepp Straka will attempt to defend his title after winning last year, with Shane Lowry and Matt Kuchar also in the field.

PGA National is playing at 7,125 yards and its usual par 70. The winning score of 10-under 270 last year shows just how tough the course can play.

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Honda Classic – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:44  p.m. ET.

Sungjae Im (+220)

I would much rather bet Im to finish in the top 5 at +220 than take him to win at +900. It’s not that I don’t like Im this week, I just don’t love his price as an outright winner. He missed the cut here last year, but has a win and a T-8 also on his resume.

Chris Kirk (+650)

Kirk tied for 7th last year and also tied for 12th in 2014, playing this event 11 times. He’s already notched two 3rd-place finishes in his last 3 starts this season, so I’m going to ignore the missed cut in Phoenix 2 weeks ago.

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Honda Classic – Top-10 picks

Jhonattan Vegas (+380)

Vegas only has 1 top-10 in 10 starts at the Honda Classic, but he’s made the cut 9 times and has 2 top-25s in his last 3 tournaments this season. You’re getting him at relatively long odds for a top-10 finish, but he’s worth a wager at +380.

Min Woo Lee (+300)

Lee hasn’t finished worse than 13th in his last 4 starts on the DP World Tour and has 3 top-5s in that stretch. Not a frequent player on the PGA Tour, he could have a chance to break through this week at PGA National where the scoring conditions could be tough.

Shane Lowry (+185)

Lowry is among the favorites this week and deservingly so. He came in 2nd last year and already has 3 top-25s in 4 starts this season. In a weaker field, he has a good chance to add a top-10 to his Honda Classic resume.

Honda Classic – Top-20 picks

Harris English (+185)

English didn’t play the Honda Classic in 2021 or 2022, but in the 2 years prior, he came in 12th and 17th, so he’s put together a quality track record at PGA National. He’s also coming off a 12th-place finish at the Genesis Invitational a week ago.

Lee Hodges (+220)

A long shot this week, Hodges tied for 8th at the Honda Classic a year ago. He comes into this week after posting a T-18 at the Genesis Invitational, fading on the weekend as Jon Rahm and Max Homa rose to the top.

Akshay Bhatia (+500)

Bhatia primarily plays on the Korn Ferry Tour, but has a lot of potential as a PGA Tour player. He already has 2 top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour this season and tied for 17th at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in March.

Honda Classic – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Harris English (-110) vs. J.T. Poston (-110)

Poston has missed the cut in his last 2 starts this season and he’s never finished better than T-27 at this event. I’ll take English’s history at this event and his encouraging play at the Genesis.

Shane Lowry (+130) vs. Sungjae Im (-150)

This is all about value. It’s hard not to like both players this week, but I don’t think Im’s odds should be that much better than Lowry’s in this matchup. Getting Lowry at +130 to beat a single player – albeit the favorite – is a solid bet.

Min Woo Lee (+100) vs. Matt Kuchar (-120)

Again, it’s about value. When Kuchar has made the cut this season, he’s finished in the top 25 half the time (3 of 6). However, he’s only shot below 70 in 3 of his last 11 rounds this season. Lee is a boom-or-bust pick but +100 is too good to pass up.

Honda Classic – Top South American

Jhonattan Vegas (+125)

There aren’t many established South American players in the field this week besides Vegas. The next favorite is Estanislao Goya at +480, so Vegas is the heavy favorite. He should be, and +125 really isn’t a bad number to get him at to be the top South American.

Honda Classic – 1st-round leader

Sungjae Im (+2000)

Taking Im to be the 1st-round leader is a good way to buy him this week without getting short odds. He ranks 5th on tour in 1st-round scoring so this bet caters to his game.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Chris Kirk (+320)

In Group B we have Alex Noren (+320), Aaron Wise (+320), Billy Horschel  (+330) and Thomas Detry (+400). I’m happy to fade Noren and Horschel, and getting Kirk at the same odds as them is a nice value. Kirk has 2 third-place finishes already this season.

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Tiger Woods: 2023 Genesis Invitational prop bet picks and predictions

Analyzing Tiger Woods’ odds and prop bets for the 2023 Genesis Invitational with PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Tiger Woods is back in action this week at the 2023 Genesis Invitational, a tournament he hosts in Los Angeles. It’s his 1st official PGA Tour event since the 2022 Open Championship last July and his first non-major since 2020.

Riviera Country Club will once again host this great event, which features a loaded field led by Jon Rahm, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele. Woods is a long shot as he tries to knock off the rust, but there are multiple ways to bet on him this week – from taking him to win outright to a potential made cut.

Below, we break down Tiger Woods’ 2023 Genesis Invitational odds and prop bets and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

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Tiger Woods’ Genesis Invitational odds and predictions

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 6:44 p.m. ET.

To win (+10000)

Shockingly, Woods has never won this event. He’s played the tournament at Riviera 14 times in his career and has made the cut 10 times, but he’s never been crowned the champion.

I don’t see that changing this week. He’s not worth betting on to win because of all the competition he’s facing in L.A. this week, along with the fact that he admitted there’s some rust in his game right now.

Top-5 finish (+3000)

Even a top-5 finish at Riviera is unlikely to happen this week. The likes of Rahm, Scheffler, Thomas and McIlroy are all playing well right now, and they’re not the only stars in the field.

Even if only one of the top players finishes in the top 5, there are dozens of other players who are better suited to come in ahead of Woods, despite his course knowledge and extensive experience here.

Top-10 finish (+1200)

The last time Woods finished in the top 10 at this event was in 2004 when he came in 7th. Since then, he’s only played here 5 times, which included a WD, missed cut, 69th-place finish and 2 other top-20s.

As often as he’s played Riviera, it’s been a while since he was legitimately in contention.

Top-20 finish (+480)

Woods hasn’t finished in the top 20 in any event since January of 2020 when he tied for 9th at the Farmers Insurance Open, a full 3 years ago. He’s only played 6 official events in the last 2 seasons, with his best finish being a tie for 38th at the 2020 Masters.

It’s hard to bet on him to even crack the top 20 without knowing the state of his game.

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More Tiger Woods odds and predictions

Top American finisher (+5000)

There are a lot of great American players in the field this week, including Scheffler, Thomas, Schauffele, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa,  Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth. There’s a decent chance an American will win the Genesis so you might as well take Woods to win outright if you’re going to bet him at all.

Tiger Woods’ Genesis Invitational 1st-round odds

  • Leader +6000 (bet $100 to win $6,000)

It’s hard to imagine Woods being in his best form right out of the gate on Thursday when he tees it up with Thomas and McIlroy in the afternoon wave. He should find a rhythm in Round 2, but from walking a full 18 holes to really feeling comfortable, that’s unlikely to happen on Thursday afternoon.

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2023 Genesis Invitational prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Genesis Invitational with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The 2023 Genesis Invitational will be played at Riviera Country Club this week for the 60th time, and it marks the 1st official PGA Tour event of the season for Tiger Woods, who is also the tournament host. The 1st round tees off Thursday morning in Los Angeles.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Genesis Invitational odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

Jon Rahm comes to Riviera as the betting favorite (+750) for the 2nd straight week after nearly winning last week’s WM Phoenix Open. Scottie Scheffler, who won in Phoenix on Sunday, is in the field along with Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau. Last year’s winner, Joaquin Niemann has joined the LIV Golf tour.

Riviera Country Club is notorious for its narrow fairways, doglegs and smaller greens, which makes it a real test. Quality ball striking and creativity around the greens are essential because of how tight the course is. It’s also got some length to it, playing at 7,322 yards as a par 71.

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Genesis Invitational – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 1:31 p.m. ET.

Justin Thomas (+330)

Thomas is a great fit for Riviera, given his ability to shape the ball and flight  both high and low, depending on what the hole demands. He’s never won here, but has 3 top-10s in 8 appearances, including a 6th-place finish last year.

Rory McIlroy (+200)

Time to bet a bounce-back for Rory? His putter failed him in Phoenix last week, but his ball striking will keep him in contention at Riviera. He has 3 top-10s in his last 4 starts at the Genesis, so he’s found himself near the top of the leaderboard in the past.

Max Homa (+425)

Homa has no weaknesses to his game. He’s a great iron player and when he does miss greens, he has the short game to get up-and-down for par. He’s lit it up at Riviera the last 3 years, finishing T-5, T-10 and a win in that stretch.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Adam Scott (+1000)
  • Will Zalatoris (+750)
  • Viktor Hovland (+550)

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Genesis Invitational – Top-10 picks

Viktor Hovland (+280)

Hovland has tied for 4th and 5th in his 1st 2 starts in the Genesis Invitational the last 2 years, showing the ability to keep the ball in the fairway and hit a lot of greens. He already has 2 top-10s in his first 6 starts this season, too.

Tony Finau (+170)

Finau has finished 2nd twice in this tournament, nearly coming away with a win at the marquee event in L.A. He’s shown he has a complete game now, with 5 top-25 finishes in 6 starts already this season, including 3 top-10s.

Jordan Spieth (+320)

Spieth looked good for a few days at the Phoenix Open before he faded on Sunday, but he still managed to finish 6th. His touch around the greens will be a major factor this week at Riviera, which is the primary reason to consider taking him for a top 10.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Jason Day (+380)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+125)

Genesis Invitational – Top-20 picks

Adam Scott (+200)

I’m all in on Scott this week. You could make the case he has the best track record of any player in the field at Riviera, with 7 top-10 finishes in 14 appearances and only 1 missed cut. He won in 2020 and tied for 4th last year, seemingly playing well no matter how he’s performing coming into L.A.

Rickie Fowler (+240)

Fowler’s odds are likely to keep getting shorter by the week because he’s playing some great golf right now. He already has 4 top-25s in 7 starts this season and is coming off a top-10 at the Phoenix Open. Keep riding the wave.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Nick Taylor (+320)
  • Seamus Power (+300)
  • Max Homa (+105)

Genesis Invitational – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Will Zalatoris (-110) vs. Tom Kim (-110)

In this matchup, we’re going with the course experience because that is a factor at Riviera. Zalatoris has played this event 3 times and though he missed the cut in 2015, he tied for 15th and 26th the last 2 years. This will be Kim’s 1st appearance.

Patrick Cantlay (+115) vs. Collin Morikawa (-135)

Cantlay hasn’t impressed this season, missing the cut in Phoenix. Morikawa shockingly did the same, looking lost with his irons last week. Let’s take the value with Cantlay and fade Morikawa; Cantlay has never finished worse than T-33 in the last 5 years.

Genesis Invitational – Top Australian

Adam Scott (+210)

Jason Day (+155) is the favorite to be the top Australian, with Lucas Herbert (+350) and Cam Davis (+450) the others in the field. But I’ll go with Scott, who never misses this event and always seems to play well here. The course fits his game and he’s more than comfortable hitting out of Kikuyu grass.

Genesis Invitational – 1st-round leader

Justin Thomas (+3000)

Thomas seemed to find something in the final round of the Phoenix Open, firing a 6-under 65 to vault up the leaderboard. Let’s take him to ride that momentum into Riviera.

Cameron Young (+4000)

Young tied the 2nd-lowest score in the 1st round here last year, shooting 66 on Thursday to immediately put himself in contention. He finished tied for 2nd, helped by a 62 in Round 2.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group D winner: Adam Scott (+400)

Shockingly, Scott has the worst odds in this group. Matt Fitzpatrick (+300), Day (+320), Hideki Matsuyama (+320) and Tyrell Hatton (+380) all have better odds than Scott despite his incredible track record at Riviera.

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2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

One of the biggest non-majors of the year will take place this week at TPC Scottsdale. The 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open is in town, once again the same week as the Super Bowl in Phoenix. The fun begins on Thursday and will conclude on Sunday at the Stadium Course.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

This is the 2nd elevated event of the 2023 season so the stars will be out in Phoenix for the Greatest Show on Grass. Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are both in the field, along with top players such as Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler and Tony Finau. Scheffler won here last year, so he’ll be trying to defend his title.

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale always makes for a fun finish, particularly in the final 4 holes. There are only 3 par-5s but they’re all reachable for the long hitters, while 17th is a driveable par 4 that’s sure to create some fireworks. It’s a course that requires quality ball-striking, so targeting players who excel tee to green is wise.

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Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:03 p.m. ET.

Xander Schauffele (+270)

Schauffele finished 2nd and 3rd in his last 2 starts at TPC Scottsdale, so he’ll be trying to continue his streak of top-5s here. He also has another top 10 and 2 other top-20 finishes in this tournament, putting together 1 of the best track records at the WM Phoenix Open.

Tony Finau (+425)

Finau either misses the cut or finishes near the top of the leaderboard in this event. No in-between. Unfortunately, he’s missed the cut in 5 of his 7 tries, but he came in 2nd in 2020 and has another top 25 here, too. He has 3 top-10s in 5 starts this season, including 1 win.

Rory McIlroy (+180)

McIlroy, along with Rahm, is 1 of the hottest players on the planet right now. He won the Hero Dubai Desert Classic in his last start, as well as the CJ Cup in October, which was his most recent PGA Tour event. I expect him to continue playing well this week; his only start here ended with a T-13 in 2021.

Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Patrick Cantlay (+400)
  • Scottie Scheffler (+270)

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Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top-10 picks

Jon Rahm (-110)

Rahm at almost even money for a top-10 in the state where he played his college golf feels like a good value. He’s notched top-10s in all 4 of his starts this season, winning twice in January already.

Scottie Scheffler (+140)

The defending champion has 2 top-10s in 3 starts at this event and has cracked the top 10 in 3 of his 5 starts this season. He’s a perfect fit for TPC Scottsdale, ranking 10th on tour in strokes gained: tee to green.

Cameron Young (+270)

Young’s putter has failed him recently, but the playing field will be leveled a bit at Scottsdale. It’s much more important to drive the ball well and hit greens, which Young excels at. He tied for 26th in his debut last year.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Sahith Theegala (+450)
  • Viktor Hovland (+330)
  • Rory McIlroy (-105)

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top-20 picks

Sahith Theegala (+190)

Theegala burst onto the scene with a T-3 finish here last year, nearly claiming his 1st PGA Tour win as a rookie. This season, he’s already added 3 top-5 finishes to his resume. Even with a star-studded field, he should be able to crack the top 20.

Rickie Fowler (+220)

Ignore the fact that Fowler has missed the cut here the last 2 years. He was struggling during that time. From 2016-20, he had 1 win and 4 total top-20s in this tournament. He loves this place and should play well this week.

J.T. Poston (+320)

Poston has posted 4 top-40 finishes in his 4 starts in this event, with 1 of those coming in the top 15 and 3 in the top 30. He’s also come in the top 21 in each of his last 4 starts this season. Ride the hot hand.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Tom Kim (+140)
  • Patrick Cantlay (-110)
  • Tony Finau (-110)

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Viktor Hovland (-110) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-110)

There aren’t a lot of matchups to love this week, but I’m going to give Hovland a shot against Fitzpatrick. Hovland played well at Pebble Beach and finished T-13 following a 1-under final round. Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, missed the cut by a few shots at 2-over through 2 rounds.

Xander Schauffele (+100) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-120)

This bet is really about value with Schauffele sitting at +100. He doesn’t have a win here like Scheffler, but his history at TPC Scottsdale is well-documented and noted above. Take the stud at even money.

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top GB + Ireland

Rory McIlroy (+115)

There aren’t many spots you can get McIlroy at plus money, but this is 1 of them. You can fade Fitzpatrick (+330), Tyrell Hatton (+750) and Seamus Power (+900) by taking McIlroy at +115, which I think is a good value for 1 of the 2 hottest players in the world.

Waste Management Phoenix Open – Top Continental Europe

Jon Rahm (-120)

It might seem crazy to take Rahm at -120 against Hovland (+330), but Hovland is really the only legitimate competition in this bet. Rahm has played well here in the past and is hitting the ball as well as anyone right now.

Waste Management Phoenix Open – 1st-round leader

Jon Rahm (+1500)

Rahm ranks 6th in 1st-round scoring this season and always plays well here, never finishing worse than T-16. If he keeps playing the way he has been, he’ll be near the top of the first-round leaderboard.

Sahith Theegala (+5000)

Theegala shot 64 here in the 2nd round last year, which followed his opening 67. He faded on the weekend, but this is a course he could go really low on.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group C winner: Viktor Hovland (+380)

Tom Kim (+300), Cameron Young (+320), Hideki Matsuyama (+350) and Fitzpatrick (+350) are the other players in this group, meaning Hovland has the worst odds of them all. He’s the only 1 who played last week and made the cut, and his driver should be a weapon at Scottsdale.

Will there be a playoff? Yes: (+330)

There was a playoff here in 2 of the last 3 years. Now the field is as loaded as ever. There could be some really low scores but I don’t think 1 player will run away with it.

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2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

Following Max Homa’s win at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, the PGA Tour remains in California for the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’ll feature another 3-course rotation, with play concluding at Pebble Beach on Sunday afternoon.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The field is headlined by Jordan Spieth, a perennial participant in this great event. He’s No. 38 in this week’s Golfweek/Sagarin rankings and is tied with Matt Fitzpatrick, the 10th-ranked golfer, as the betting favorite (+900). Viktor Hovland is also teeing it up this week and he’s ranked 14th by Golfweek, the 2nd-highest-ranked player in the field.

Players will be taking on three different courses this week: Pebble Beach (6,972 yards, par 72), Spyglass Hill (7,041, 72) and Monterey Peninsula Country Club (6,957, 71). The cut will be made at 54 holes, with the remaining players finishing the event at Pebble on Sunday.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:53 p.m. ET.

Maverick McNealy (+380)

McNealy already has 2 career top-5 finishes in this tournament, and he’s playing better right now than he has at almost any point in his career. With 7 made cuts in his last 8 starts, McNealy has shown some consistency this season. He’s a nice fit for this event, which shows in his track record here.

Seamus Power (+425)

Power posted his best career finish at this event last year with a T-9, his 1st top 10. Furthermore, he’s dominating right now with 1 win, 3 top-5s and 4 top-25s in his last 4 starts. He’s among the hottest players on the planet and that should continue this week.

Joel Dahmen (+750)

Dahmen has 3 straight top-10 finishes this season and has made the cut in each of his 5 starts in this tournament. Additionally, he’s come in the top 15 in 2 of the last 3 years here. It’s a perfect combination of course history and recent form.

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Top-10 picks

Jordan Spieth (+140)

Spieth never misses this event, playing every year since 2013. He’s made the cut all 10 times and has only finished outside the top 25 once. In 6 of his 10 starts at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he’s finished in the top 10. Getting him at plus money for a top-10 finish is good value.

Beau Hossler (+550)

Hossler is a long-shot pick for a top 10, but he finished alone in 3rd here last year so he’s cracked the top 10 before. His short game could put him in contention, but he’ll need to be much better off the tee and into the greens than he has been this season; he’s 150th on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green.

Viktor Hovland (+140)

Hovland is back in action for the 1st time in a few weeks, seeking to continue what’s been a fantastic season so far. He doesn’t have a finish worse than T-21 and only has 4 rounds over 69 in 4 official starts this season. He tied for 38th in his only start here in 2020.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Top-20 picks

Matt Fitzpatrick (-140)

Fitzpatrick tied for 6th here last year and should once again be in contention. Cracking the top 20 in a field where he’s the only top-10 player in the world shouldn’t be terribly difficult and even at -110, he’s a good bet.

Russell Knox (+260)

Since 2018, Knox has 3 top-20 finishes in 5 years, including a T-7, T-14 and T-15. He’s made the cut in 7 straight starts this season so he comes into this week in good form. His odds should probably be shorter for a top-20.

Troy Merritt (+350)

Betting Merritt is based on his course history, finishing in the top 25 in this event in his last 4 starts. That can be a little bit risky, seeing as his best finish in his last 3 starts this season is a T-65, but he’s worth a shot.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Seamus Power (-120) vs. Justin Rose (+100)

Power is playing better than most golfers on the planet right now, which makes it somewhat surprising that he’s only -120 to finish better than Rose this week. Rose has only played this event 3 times and finished 62nd and T-39 in his last 2 starts here.

Maverick McNealy (-110) vs. Tom Hoge (-110)

Betting against the defending champion can be a scary proposition as Hoge goes for back-to-back wins here, but McNealy actually has a better track record with 2 top-10s compared to Hoge’s 1.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Top English

Matt Fitzpatrick (+110)

Fitzpatrick’s stiffest competition to be the top Englishman is Rose, whose odds are +270. Other than that, the other 5 Englishmen in the field are +10000 or longer to win this bet. It’s hard not to like Fitzpatrick, who played well here last year.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Seamus Power (+280)

This group includes Power, Rose (+320), Andrew Putnam (+350), Keith Mitchell (+350) and Matt Kuchar (+400). Mitchell and Kuchar could be dangerous in this group but Power’s recent form gives him the edge.

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2023 American Express prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 American Express with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

After 2 weeks in paradise on Maui and Oahu, the PGA Tour is back in the Continental U.S. for The American Express in California. It’s the 1st leg of the California swing, returning again  to PGA West and La Quinta Country Club.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 American Express odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

It’s an unusually strong field this week by The American Express’ standards, featuring some of the top players in the world – including Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. Rahm is the highest-ranked player in the field at No. 2 in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, followed by Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay.

Players will tee it up on 3 courses this week, playing each in the 1st 3 rounds: Stadium Course (PGA West), La Quinta Country Club and Nicklaus Tournament Course (PGA West). Those who make the cut after 54 holes will play the Stadium Course in the final round.

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The American Express – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:26  p.m. ET.

Patrick Cantlay (+240)

Cantlay has had a lot of success here in an event played in his home state, finishing 9th twice and 2nd in his 3 starts. His odds might feel a little short for a top-5 finish but he’s worth it. His track record at this event is too good to ignore, and he could very well win it outright for the 1st time.

Will Zalatoris (+425)

It might not be a bad idea to get ahead of Zalatoris’ inevitable odds juice as he continues to play in his return from a back injury. At +425, he offers good value for a top-5, which he came close to doing here last year when he tied for 6th. There is some risk with this being just his 2nd tournament of the season, so perhaps make it a smaller wager.

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The American Express – Top-10 picks

Jon Rahm (-130)

Rahm has a win and 2 other top-15 finishes in this event, which he’s played 4 times. He’s the only player without plus-money odds to finish in the top 10, so he’s far and away the favorite. Coming off his Sentry Tournament of Champions win, he’s playing better than anyone in the world right now.

Tony Finau (+150)

In his last 3 starts at The American Express, Finau has gone T-14, 4th and T-40. He enters this week with some stellar play of late having won the Houston Open in November and finished 7th at both the Hero World Challenge and Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Sungjae Im (+220)

Im should probably have shorter odds than this to finish in the top 10, but we’re not going to complain. He’s finished between 10th and 12th in this event in the last 4 years, showing he loves PGA West and La Quinta Country Club. He’s a great pick to win this week, too.

Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Cameron Davis (+450)
  • Brian Harman (+300)

The American Express – Top-20 picks

Cameron Davis (+210)

Davis finished 3rd in his last trip to The American Express, which followed T-28 and T-29 finishes in the 2 years prior. He only has 1 top-20 this season,  but he’s hovered around there with 4 straight top-37 finishes.

Brian Harman (+150)

Harman has made the cut 8 times in 10 tries here, including 3 top 10s. He’s finished in the top 25 in 5 of his 6 official starts this season, with 2 of those coming in the top 10 and 2 runner-up finishes. Pairing recent form and course history makes Harman a great pick.

Rickie Fowler (+300)

Fowler missed the cut at this tournament last year, but he tied for 10th in 2020 and 21st in 2021. He came in 2nd at the ZOZO Championship in October and appears to have tweaked his swing in a positive way, potentially putting him on track for a big year in 2023.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Harris English (+380)
  • Sahith Theegala (+210)

The American Express – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Brian Harman (+100) vs. Sam Burns (-120)

Burns has played this tournament 3 times and come in the top 20 twice, but I’ll take the value with Harman at plus-money in this matchup. He knows these courses like the back of his hand and should be in contention on Sunday.

Will Zalatoris (-120) vs. Cameron Young (+100)

Young’s short game is really holding him back right now and these aren’t exactly courses where he can overpower with his length off the tee. I’ll take Zalatoris in this matchup after he tied for 6th here last year.

Cameron Davis (-110) vs. Aaron Wise (-110)

Wise has missed the cut here 3 years in a row. He’s a promising player who could have a strong season in 2023, but give me Davis with his course history.

The American Express – Top American

Patrick Cantlay (+700)

I actually like Cantlay to win this week so I’ll gladly take him as the top American, which takes Rahm out of the picture. He still has Scheffler, Schauffele and plenty other Americans to contend with, but eliminating Rahm makes a big difference.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group C winner: Si Woo Kim (+260)

Kim won the Sony Open last week with a come-from-behind performance on Sunday, starting 2023 on a high note. Tom Hoge (+350), Wise (+350), Taylor Montgomery (+350) and Andrew Putnam (+400) are also in this group, but Kim has the edge over them all.

Winning margin: 1 shot (+250)

The winning margin has been 2 shots in 2 of the last 3 years, and was 1 shot in 2021. This event often yields close finishes on Sunday so I’ll go with a margin of 1 shot this year.

Also see: American Express outright winner picks and predicitons

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2023 Sony Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Sony Open with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The 2nd tournament and 1st full-field event of the 2023 calendar year brings the PGA Tour to Honolulu for the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club. Below, before the 1st round tees off on Thursday, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Sony Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

With many of the top players in the world choosing not to play Hawaii’s 2nd event, the field isn’t as strong as last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. Sungjae Im is the highest-ranked player in the field, according to the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings, coming in at No. 13. Last year’s champion, Hideki Matsuyama, is also teeing it up; he ranks 22nd.

Waialae Country Club features a completely different layout than Kapalua did last week, featuring very narrow, tree-lined fairways. At Kapalua, the fairways are wide and tough to miss, so players will need to be dialed in off the tee this week.

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Sony Open – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:07 p.m. ET.

Tom Kim (+230)

It’s really hard not to like Kim every time he tees it up these days. He has such a well-rounded game that it doesn’t matter much which course he’s playing. In 5 starts so far this season, including one unofficial event, he’s had 5 top-25s, 3 top-10s, 2 top-5s and a win. All he does is contend.

Hideki Matsuyama (+400)

Matsuyama won this tournament last year and will be seeking to defend his title. He hasn’t had great results yet this season, but playing a course he’s familiar with could be what he needs to get back on track. Buy low on him here.

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Sony Open – Top-10 picks

Russell Henley (+240)

Henley is 1 of my favorites this week. He lost in a playoff to Matsuyama here last year and tied for 11th the year prior, so he’s come close to winning it before. It’s worth noting that Henley won at Mayakoba in November, too.

Corey Conners (+250)

Conners offers great value, too. His course history is fantastic, finishing 11th, 12th and 3rd in his last 3 appearances. He’s made the cut all 4 years prior and should be among of the favorites to win this week.

Cameron Davis (+350)

In his last start on tour, Davis tied for 13th at the CJ Cup in November. His poor accuracy off the tee is a concern on the narrower fairways at Waialae Country Club, but he’s a great putter and will have short irons or wedges into a lot of greens.

Sony Open – Top-20 picks

Si-Woo Kim (+230)

Kim is 4-for-5 in cuts made at this event and finished 4th in 2016, so he does have some familiarity with the course. He finished 8th at the Shriners Children’s Open in  October, his best showing so far this season.

Matt Kuchar (+220)

Kuchar has won here before, so getting him well into plus money for a top-20 is a decent value – despite his lack of success in recent years. He tied for 7th last year and has 7 top 10s in 17 total trips to the Sony Open.

Webb Simpson (+280)

Simpson hasn’t been playing his best golf recently, really struggling throughout 2022, but he loves this course. He’s made the cut in all 12 appearances at this tournament and has 4 top-10 finishes.

Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):

  • Michael Thompson (+650)
  • Mackenzie Hughes (+220)

Sony Open – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Tom Kim (-120) vs. Sungjae Im (+100)

It’s not easy to pick between 2 pure ball strikers on this course but I’ll go with Kim. He’s red hot and doesn’t seem ready to cool down any time soon. He finished 3 shots clear of Im last week at Kapalua.

Hideki Matsuyama (+100) vs. Jordan Spieth (-120)

Matsuyama’s quiet Sunday at the Tournament of Champions sunk him down the leaderboard, but he’ll bounce back this week and finish ahead of Spieth, who hasn’t played here since 2019.

Cameron Davis (-110) vs. Keith Mitchell (-110)

Davis’ week will come down to whether he can keep the ball in the fairway because if he can, he’ll be able to attack pins and make enough birdies to contend.

Sony Open – Top American

Russell Henley (+1300)

Henley has the 3rd-best odds to be the top American in the field but he should probably have better odds than the favorite, Spieth (+1000). His iron play and accuracy off the tee set him up well at Waialae.

Sony Open – First-round leader

Si-Woo Kim (+5000)

Let’s get a little crazy. Kim shot 64 at the Shriners Children’s Open, but couldn’t finish the week strong to win the tournament. He has a knack for going really low on Thursday before fading a bit down the stretch.

More expert prop bet predictions

Group B winner: Corey Conners (+320)

Conners has the 2nd-best odds in this group at +320, behind only Brian Harman (+260). Tom Hoge (+350), Bill Horschel (400) and KH Lee (+425) are also in the group, but Conners has the best course history of the 5.

Also see: Sony Open outright winner picks and predicitons

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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The PGA Tour resumes play this week after time off for holidays, and it begins the 2023 calendar year with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui, Hawaii. For the 25th time, this tournament will be played on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

With Rory McIlroy opting not to play this week, Jon Rahm is the highest-ranked player in the field, according to the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. He’s No. 2 on the list, with Patrick Cantlay, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele rounding out the top 5. Justin Thomas is also in the field, and Will Zalatoris is returning from injury to play for the 1st time this season.

The Plantation Course will play as a par 73 at 7,596 yards, a longer course but 1 with scoring opportunities on the par 5s. If the conditions permit and the wind stays down, the scores could go really low like they did last year when Cameron Smith won at 34-under par, a tournament record.

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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 3:40 p.m. ET.

Justin Thomas (+200)

Thomas already has 5 top-5s in this tournament, including 4 in the last 4 years. He’s won here twice already, too. Kapalua is a great course fit for his game, in part because of his ability to flight the ball and alter the trajectory based on what the shot demands.

Collin Morikawa (+330)

Morikawa has only played here 3 times but he’s gone T-5, T-7 and T-7 in those 3 starts. With a fresh start to the year, Morikawa will look to improve upon a 2022 season that was filled with ups and downs. His ball-striking and iron play from the wide fairways will give him plenty of close looks at birdie.

Cameron Young (+330)

Let’s go with sheer power and potential here. Young hasn’t yet won on tour, but some of his best golf has been played in star-studded fields, like the majors. In a tournament that could feature some really low scores, Young is a perfect fit. With some of the widest fairways on tour, his driver will be a weapon without simultaneously getting him into trouble like it can on narrower courses.

Also see: Sentry Tournament odds and outright winner predictions

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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top-10 picks

Jordan Spieth (+140)

Spieth cracked the top 5 in each of his first 3 starts here from 2014-17, adding a 9th-place finish in 2018. Since then, he’s only played here once, tying for 21st last year. He’s obviously comfortable on this course and his shot creativity will help him this week around the greens when he does miss from the fairway.

Tony Finau (-110)

Finau won the Houston Open and came in 7th a few weeks later at the Hero World Challenge, which is an unofficial event. That’s after ending last season with 4 top-10s in his last 5 starts, including 2 wins. His betting line is reflective of the way he’s played lately, but he’s still a good value at -110.

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Collin Morikawa (-120) vs. Sungjae Im (+100)

Morikawa has come close to winning here before and I expect that to continue this week. It’s tough to bet against Im, who finished last season strong, but Morikawa should contend after getting back on track in his last 2 starts (T-15 and T-9).

Justin Thomas (-110) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-110)

Talk about a heavyweight battle. I’ve already talked about Thomas’ strong history at this course, something Scheffler doesn’t have; he’s only played this event once and tied for 13th in 2021. Thomas is poised for a big week in Maui and should be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.

Cameron Young (-110) vs. Matthew Fitzpatrick (-110)

Fitzpatrick doesn’t typically excel in tournaments where the scores are extremely low. He’s much better when players have to grind through tough conditions like the U.S. Open’s. Young can pour in birdies like few others can and his driver will be a difference-maker this week, given the size of the fairways.

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top American

Justin Thomas (+700)

Going back to Thomas here. Scheffler (+600), Cantlay (+650) and Schauffele (+650) all have better odds than Thomas, which makes him a good value to finish as the top American in a field filled with talented ones.

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – Top Great Britain + Ireland

Seamus Power (+130)

This is a 1-on-1 matchup between Power and Fitzpatrick (-180), and I’m going with the underdog, who has consecutive top-5 finishes in each of his last 3 starts – including a win.

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions – 1st-round leader

Tony Finau (+2000)

In 2 official starts this season, Finau shot 68 and 65 in his opening rounds. When he gets rolling, he’s tough to stop and I’m betting on him starting strong in Hawaii this week.

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2022 QBE Shootout prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2022 QBE Shootout with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

The last event on the 2022 calendar is the QBE Shootout in Naples, Fla., which is once again being played at Tiburon Golf Club. It’s a 12-team event across 3 rounds, with pairings competing in 4-ball, scramble and modified alternate shot formats.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 QBE Shootout odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The tournament begins on Friday with a scramble, followed by modified alternate shot Saturday and 4-ball on Sunday. Among the big names in field are the pairings of Jason Day and Billy Horschel, Max Homa and Kevin Kisner, Sahith Theegala and Tom Hoge, and Cameron Young and Steve Stricker. Two LPGA stars are also playing for the first time: Nelly Korda (with Denny McCarthy) and Lexi Thompson (with Maverick McNeely).

Tiburon Golf Club’s Gold Course, which will be played this week, is a par 72 and 7,382 yards long for players this week. It was designed by Greg Norman and features four par 5s and four par 3s.

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QBE Shootout – Matchups

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:01 p.m. ET.

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Day/Horschel (-120) vs. Hoge/Theegala (+110)

Theegala is making his debut in this event, having very little experience in team formats. Day and Horschel have both teed it up here before, so that gives them an edge – and they’re the betting favorites (+500) to win the whole thing. I like their chances to finish higher on the leaderboard than Hoge and Theegala.

Stricker/Young (+100) vs. Keith Mitchell/J.J. Spaun (-110)

Young and Stricker are an interesting pairing between a young bomber and a veteran from the Champions Tour. Young’s length will be an advantage in the scramble and alternate shot formats, but the 4-ball round could be challenging for this pairing. I still like them to edge out Mitchell and Spaun.

Homa/Kisner (+100) vs. Harris English/Matt Kuchar (-110)

Homa and Kisner can both be deadly putters and though they’re not the longest hitters on tour, this 3-format tournament fits their games well. Scrambles often come down to putting and they shouldn’t get each other into too much trouble during the alternate shot round because they’re both accurate off the tee.

QBE Shootout – First-round leader

Max Homa/Kevin Kisner (+750)

The 1st round is a scramble, so I’m betting on the putting of Homa and Kisner. They can’t overpower the course like some other teams can, but they’re going to make putts for birdie. I could see them going low on Friday.

Trey Mullinax/Scott Stallings (+750)

Let’s go with Mullinax, who hits it a mile, and Stallings, who’s historically been an above-average ball striker. It only takes 1 good round in a scramble format for this bet to cash.

QBE Shootout – Group A winner

Jason Day/Billy Horschel (+280)

It’s a chalky pick, but I’ll go with Day and Horschel against English/Kuchar (+320), Harman/Straka (+330), Hoge/Theegala (+380) and Homa/Kisner (+400). I don’t love betting a group winner in this tournament because there are only 12 competitors in the entire field, but this bet basically cuts the field in half to exclude any long shots.

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2022 Hero World Challenge prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions

Analyzing the odds for the 2022 Hero World Challenge with PGA Tour picks and predictions for the top prop bets.

There may only be 20 players in the field this week for the 2022 Hero World Challenge, but it’s a field filled with marquee players. They’re down in the Bahamas for the Tiger Woods-hosted event, which is being held at Albany Golf Course for the 7th time.

Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 Hero World Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.

The favorite to win this week is Jon Rahm (+500), who leads the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Scottie Scheffler, No. 4 in the rankings, has the 2nd-best odds (+750). Of the top 11 players in this week’s Sagarin rankings, 6 of them are in the field in Albany.

Albany Golf Course is a par 72 and plays at 7,414 yards. The winning score last year was 18-under by Viktor Hovland, who is at +1500 in his quest for back-to-back titles. Being a links-style course, the fairways are framed by waste areas, so there isn’t much rough to contend with.

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Hero World Challenge – Top-5 picks

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:44 p.m. ET.

Justin Thomas (+162)

Thomas has carded top-5 finishes in his last 2 starts at this event and has never finished worse than tied for 12th in 4 appearances. At plus money, he’s a good value to finish top 5 in this limited field, using his experience at Albany Golf Course to propel him to a strong showing come Sunday.

Collin Morikawa (+220)

Morikawa is fresh off his wedding, so planning for the big day isn’t on his mind anymore. His ball striking into these smaller greens will bode well for the American because as we know, he’s among the best iron players in the world. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+175)

Fitzpatrick is as well-rounded a player as there is right now, adding length off the tee in the last couple of years. He tied for 12th in his debut last year and now that he has some experience at Albany Golf Course, he should be even better suited for a run at the title this time around.

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Hero World Challenge – Top-10 picks

Cameron Young (-160)

There’s not a lot of value betting top-10s in this event because 19 of the 20 players in the field are -115 or shorter to finish inside the top 10. However, Young provides a little bit of value at -160 because of how he performs in big events, and because he’s tied for the 7th-longest odds to come in the top 10.

Hero World Challenge – Matchups

Suggested play is golfer in bold.

Jon Rahm (-125) vs. Scottie Scheffler (+105)

This is a matchup between the two favorites and while Rahm’s line is juiced a bit, he’s worth paying up for. He won his last start on the DP World Tour and has finished 1st and 2nd in his 2 starts in this event.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (-110) vs. Sam Burns (-110)

Going back to Fitzpatrick here at -110 against Burns. Burns has finished T-30 and T-7 in 2 starts this season, withdrawing his last time out at the Houston Open after sitting 6-over through 31 holes before inclement weather caused a delay and his subsequent withdrawal.

Hero World Challenge – Top American

Justin Thomas (+650)

Thomas has the 4th-best odds on this bet, behind Scheffler (+380), Tony Finau (+480) and Xander Schauffele (+550). I’m tempted to take Finau  because of how well he’s playing right now, but I’ll go Thomas at a course he’s had success before.

Hero World Challenge – Group B winner

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+320)

In addition to Fitzpatrick, Hovland (+330), Sungjae Im (+330), Burns (+330 and Jordan Spieth (+380) make up this group. Fitzpatrick is the favorite, but only slightly. Group betting can be a good way to play this tournament with so few players in the field, especially getting Fitzpatrick at +320. All he has to do is beat 4 other golfers.

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