There may only be 20 players in the field this week for the 2022 Hero World Challenge, but it’s a field filled with marquee players. They’re down in the Bahamas for the Tiger Woods-hosted event, which is being held at Albany Golf Course for the 7th time.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2022 Hero World Challenge odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
The favorite to win this week is Jon Rahm (+500), who leads the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Scottie Scheffler, No. 4 in the rankings, has the 2nd-best odds (+750). Of the top 11 players in this week’s Sagarin rankings, 6 of them are in the field in Albany.
Albany Golf Course is a par 72 and plays at 7,414 yards. The winning score last year was 18-under by Viktor Hovland, who is at +1500 in his quest for back-to-back titles. Being a links-style course, the fairways are framed by waste areas, so there isn’t much rough to contend with.
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Hero World Challenge – Top-5 picks
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 7:44 p.m. ET.
Justin Thomas (+162)
Thomas has carded top-5 finishes in his last 2 starts at this event and has never finished worse than tied for 12th in 4 appearances. At plus money, he’s a good value to finish top 5 in this limited field, using his experience at Albany Golf Course to propel him to a strong showing come Sunday.
Collin Morikawa (+220)
Morikawa is fresh off his wedding, so planning for the big day isn’t on his mind anymore. His ball striking into these smaller greens will bode well for the American because as we know, he’s among the best iron players in the world.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+175)
Fitzpatrick is as well-rounded a player as there is right now, adding length off the tee in the last couple of years. He tied for 12th in his debut last year and now that he has some experience at Albany Golf Course, he should be even better suited for a run at the title this time around.
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Hero World Challenge – Top-10 picks
Cameron Young (-160)
There’s not a lot of value betting top-10s in this event because 19 of the 20 players in the field are -115 or shorter to finish inside the top 10. However, Young provides a little bit of value at -160 because of how he performs in big events, and because he’s tied for the 7th-longest odds to come in the top 10.
Hero World Challenge – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jon Rahm (-125) vs. Scottie Scheffler (+105)
This is a matchup between the two favorites and while Rahm’s line is juiced a bit, he’s worth paying up for. He won his last start on the DP World Tour and has finished 1st and 2nd in his 2 starts in this event.
Matthew Fitzpatrick (-110) vs. Sam Burns (-110)
Going back to Fitzpatrick here at -110 against Burns. Burns has finished T-30 and T-7 in 2 starts this season, withdrawing his last time out at the Houston Open after sitting 6-over through 31 holes before inclement weather caused a delay and his subsequent withdrawal.
Hero World Challenge – Top American
Justin Thomas (+650)
Thomas has the 4th-best odds on this bet, behind Scheffler (+380), Tony Finau (+480) and Xander Schauffele (+550). I’m tempted to take Finau because of how well he’s playing right now, but I’ll go Thomas at a course he’s had success before.
Hero World Challenge – Group B winner
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+320)
In addition to Fitzpatrick, Hovland (+330), Sungjae Im (+330), Burns (+330 and Jordan Spieth (+380) make up this group. Fitzpatrick is the favorite, but only slightly. Group betting can be a good way to play this tournament with so few players in the field, especially getting Fitzpatrick at +320. All he has to do is beat 4 other golfers.
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