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Instant analysis from Saints’ much-needed Week 5 win vs. the Patriots: What went right, what went wrong, and what’s the bottom line?
The New Orleans Saints are back in the win column as they go on the road to shut out the New England Patriots. The offense finally looked alive as the defense puts together an incredible game.
So we’ve got some important questions to answer while analyzing the 34-0 win: What went right? What went wrong? And what’s the bottom line?
Alvin Kamara was taking notes during the Saints’ big Week 5 win, remembering every dropped pass and almost-sack. He’s got high standards:
"Tyrann owes me a pick, Cam owes me a sack, Mike owes me a catch, Chris owes me a catch…"
34-point shutout, but Alvin is still taking notes on how we can be better 😂 pic.twitter.com/qqScvLaEnx
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) October 8, 2023
Drew Brees and Sean Payton always talked about Alvin Kamara as one of the most intelligent football players they had been around, and it’s easy to see why when the New Orleans Saints star running back breaks down a game like this. Kamara took the initiative to hold himself and his teammates accountable after their 34-0 walloping of the New England Patriots on Sunday.
Kamara was taking notes during the game, keeping track of every dropped pass and almost-sack. He’s determined to maintain high standards that made the Saints one of the NFL’s winningest teams to start his career.
“I just want to address, because I was thinking about it, Tyrann Mathieu owes me a pick,” Kamara recalled. “I think Cam (Jordan) owes me like a sack or two. Mike (Thomas) owes me a catch so I’m putting Mike and Derek (Carr) in the same bracket. I don’t know what it was, the throw or the catch, but Mike owes me a catch. Chris (Olave) owes me a catch because I’ve seen him make those catches before on the sideline. What else? I’m just going to blame someone else just because, D.A., just because.”
But it wasn’t just the negatives he was keeping track of. Kamara shared how he was speaking with Carr, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, passing game coordinator Ronald Curry and running backs coach Joel Thomas during the game, adding his input to different situations and pointing out play calls that worked well to his teammates’ strengths. The results speak for themselves with 34 unanswered points on the afternoon.
Kamara added that having coaches receptive to that kind of feedback from players helps everyone by fostering a collaborative approach. It develops a comfort level that helps everyone feel like they’re involved in the offense, and he says this win was a good example of what that cohesiveness can accomplish.
It wasn’t all perfect. Kamara is aware of the penalties, too, and he’s not going to let his teammates with dirty hands get off scot-free: “We still had some penalties. Foster (Moreau) owes me one. (Cesar Ruiz) owes me one, (Rashid) Shaheed owes me one. I’m just recalling everything that hindered us, kept the score from going any higher.”
But we’re focusing on the positives, and Kamara saw a lot to like from the team in this game. They played a style of complimentary football that we haven’t seen often enough in recent years with an opportunistic defense, a tight special teams unit, and an offense that picked up first downs and ended drives with touchdowns. Having leaders like Kamara taking charge like this can help them go far.
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The Saints aren’t in any hurry to move on from Pete Carmichael. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports that their struggling OC isn’t on the hot seat just yet:
The New Orleans Saints haven’t seen enough out of Pete Carmichael’s 21-game run as offensive coordinator to warrant a change. Despite ranking 22nd in scoring last season and 25th through four games this year with their handpicked quarterback under center in Derek Carr, the Saints are determined to take their time in making a move at play caller.
Pittsburgh Steelers fans are experiencing the same frustration with Matt Canada at the helm of a futile offensive effort. Both teams are in a similarly tough spot, and they’re facing similar stakes in the weeks ahead. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reports of Carmichael and Canada that “if production doesn’t ramp up, their respective seats will be hot, based on conversations with sources close to the situation.”
But how many more weeks of poor performance do the Saints need to see before they’re ready to give someone else a shot? Two more weeks? Three? Four? The Saints are 2-2 because Carmichael can’t manage the offense effectively and put points on the board. They’re lucky to be 2-2 seeing as their margin of victory in those two wins was just four points altogether; a couple of kicks go differently and this is an 0-4 team.
Carmichael’s tendencies and shortcomings have been well documented. As observed by NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill, his offense ranks last in the NFL in using pre-snap motion and play action on passes, teeing up the opposing defense for easy reads to react to. Take out Rashid Shaheed’s punt return score and the Saints are tied with this week’s opponent, the also-lambasted New England Patriots, for the third-fewest points scored (55) across the league. Only the often-mocked New York Giants (46) and banged-up Cincinnati Bengals (49) have scored fewer.
But maybe Carmichael just needs more time to add more variety to the offense and get better production out of his personnel. Surely an offense with a Pro Bowl quarterback, the league’s best receiving running back in Alvin Kamara, a number of talented tight ends (plus do-it-all weapon Taysom Hill), a wide receiver trio that fans spent all summer hyping up, and an offensive line that’s improved each week will be this bad for much longer? Right?
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9 of the Saints’ 13 scoring drives have ended in field goals. In a battle of struggling offenses, New Orleans must score touchdowns to win on Sunday:
The focus for the New Orleans Saints this week against the New England Patriots should be finishing drives with touchdowns. The Saints ended last week with all of their points coming via field goals. That issue isn’t isolated to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game.
When New Orleans does move the football, they struggle to put the ball in the end zone. The Saints offense has led 13 scoring drives this season, nine of them ended in field goals. The offense has yet to finish a game with more drives ending in touchdowns than field goals. In Green Bay, one of the touchdowns was a Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown.
The offensive struggles were mitigated by the defense the first two weeks of the season. The defense is strong but shouldn’t be expected to never waver. That was evident against the Packers. This shouldn’t be the game the defense gets lit up, but the Saints should still stress putting up points on the board.
This is an issue that needs to be fixed beyond just this game, but it could be what takes the Saints over the top this week. The Saints and Patriots are two teams who have struggled to score points. New Orleans is the fifth worst scoring offense and New England is the third worst scoring offense in the league. If a team scores two touchdowns, that could be enough in a battle of low scoring offenses.
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Chris Olave owned up to his on-field frustrations during Week 4’s loss to the Bucs, but it’s easy to understand why a young star would feel dissatisfied with the state of the Saints offense
Chris Olave played his worst game as a pro against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and to his credit he’s owning up to it. The New Orleans Saints’ leading receiver finished the contest with a career-low total of one reception for a gain of four yards — off of six targets. That’s his lowest total in the NFL and in college since his freshman year, when he was targeted just once during Ohio State’s win over Nebraska on Nov. 3, 2018 (the pass fell incomplete).
Fans on social media noted Olave’s sagging effort in the matchup, where he struggled to compete for some contested catches and sustain blocks to help his teammates. At times, he expressed a bit of attitude leaving the field for the sidelines.
“That’s not the way to go,” Olave told NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill on Thursday, adding that some of his close friends on the team made a point to cool him down and emphasize that he can express his concerns in other ways without hurting the team. He added to the Times-Picayune | New Orleans Advocate’s Rod Walker that “Everybody’s got to look themselves in the mirror” after a 26-9 blowout loss.
It’s easy to understand why he’s frustrated. The Saints’ play calling has fallen off a cliff since Week 1, when Olave lined up all over the formation, including the backfield. He ran three routes out of the backfield in the season opener and caught two passes from that alignment for 30 yards. But he hasn’t moved to the backfield in three games since.
That’s just one example, but it goes to show how limited Olave’s assignments have become in the offense as the season continues on. He isn’t being given many opportunities to catch a ball in space and make a play after the catch. When he’s being thrown to further downfield it’s all along the sideline where the degree of difficulty ratchets up as the field condenses down and the defensive back can use those physical limitations to their advantage. When Olave has been targeted down the middle (as was the case against the Buccaneers on Sunday) the ball was thrown behind him, forcing him to cut his feet and leap backwards, trying to fight off two defenders for a shot at it. No dice.
Olave is a young superstar in the making. But he won’t reach the heights in front of him without more help from his play caller and quarterback. At the same time, he can’t let those dissatisfactions impact his performance. Letting off-target passes from Derek Carr and doomed play calls from Pete Carmichael get into his head just leads to more negative plays. As his veteran teammates know all too well, the best thing he can do is focus his energy on doing his job to the best of his ability.
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Podcast: Who’s holding the Saints’ offense back more, Derek Carr or Pete Carmichael?
The Saints Wire podcast is live with managing editor John Sigler (@john_siglerr) and our host Ryan O’Leary (@RyanOLearySMG). You can subscribe for new episodes released each week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts or your podcast service of choice.
There’s a lot of blame to go around following the Saints’ 2-2 start, with most of the frustration focusing on the offense. But who is to blame? Offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, whose play calling is just as suspect this season as it was last year, or quarterback Derek Carr, who was brought in with the explicit goal of fixing this offense? We’re grilling both parties before taking a look at Week 5’s matchup with the New England Patriots.
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The Saints sit at 2-2 after their first four games. We’ve seen player development continue and old concerns come back. Here are four things we’ve learned | @southexclusives
We’re about a quarter of the way through the 2023 season, and we have learned some things about the New Orleans Saints. The team currently stands at 2-2 on the season after losing the last two games. The season has already seen its fair share of ups and downs and turmoil.
Saints fans collectively held their breath when Derek Carr went down with a shoulder injury. Alvin Kamara served his suspension while Marcus Maye is in the midst of one of his own.
Here are the four things we learned about New Orleans Saints through four games
Dennis Allen won’t make any coaching changes after their disappointing start. He says he feels fans’ frustration, but so far it hasn’t spurred him to take action:
Dennis Allen isn’t exactly inspiring confidence in his staff. The New Orleans Saints head coach acknowledged his offense’s struggles in moving the ball and putting points on the board after a stunning 26-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, as well as the criticism targeting offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael.
But Allen is determined to prove Carmichael was the right pick for the job. He announced that Carmichael will remain the play caller on offense during Monday’s media session.
“No, we won’t make any coaching changes,” Allen told NewOrleans.Football’s Mike Triplett. “I’ve never seen that to be the right answer, particularly when we’re four games into the season. And yet we have to be better. I understand everyone’s frustration because everyone in the building feels it.”
Carmichael’s version of the offense was league-average last season with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton under center, but it’s plummeted to rank among the worst units in the NFL now that Allen has brought in his handpicked quarterback Derek Carr. They ranked 15th on third downs, 16th in passing yards and 19th in rushing yards last season, but 22nd in points scored. Through four games this year they rank 18th on third downs, 21st in passing yards, and 25th in both rushing yards and points scored.
That much regression is concerning. Especially when Allen and the Saints spent all summer talking up their new additions: Carr was an upgrade over the quarterbacks he preceded, the offensive line would be better with Trevor Penning starting at left tackle, their stable of running backs was clearly better after signing Jamaal Williams and drafting Kendre Miller, and how could they not make plays with so much talent at receiver? But the offense hasn’t lived up to expectations, and there needs to be some accountability.
Well, there needs to be accountability, but there isn’t any. The same people are going to remain in the same places on staff, including Carmichael. They’re going to keep doing things the same way until they get different results. We’ll see how that works out.
Allen is stubbornly sticking to the plan. It hasn’t worked yet, but maybe it will if they just keep trying. Allen was adamant that the offense must get better, outlining several areas they can improve: putting guys in better position to make plays, executing assignments more effectively (he pointed to two throws by Carr that could have been completed with better ball placement), and obviously scoring points, adding “Everybody knows that.”
Those would all do a lot to help improve the offense’s standing, sure. But they’re also all minor concerns compared to the big-picture issues plaguing the unit. Carmichael hasn’t shown any regard for down-and-distance, leading to their low conversion rate on third down. When they’ve needed three yards he’s flushed all the receivers downfield with no safety valve underneath. This has been a recurring problem for him.
There are always times where people have to learn on the job and adapt to what they have to work with. Learning what works and what doesn’t is part of that process, and it’s fine to practice some patience — to an extent. If Carmichael had just come up from the college ranks this would be much more excusable. The fact that he’s been in the building for 15 years and is still figuring these things out is beyond frustrating.
Allen says Carmichael hears those frustrations from fans and analysts just like everyone else in the building, and that the veteran offensive coordinator is working to improve. All we can do right now is take Allen at his word.
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Fans won’t like the approach, but Dennis Allen isn’t making a rash decision on the Saints offensive play caller. That doesn’t mean change is not on its way:
It’s important to remember that “fan” is short for “fanatic.” Fans want to see emotion and drama and high stakes discussion in the aftermath of a painful loss — so it’s easy to understand their frustration when New Orleans Saints head coach Dennis Allen kept a cool head after Sunday’s hard-to-watch collapse against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Especially when the topic of the offensive play caller came up. Pete Carmichael has left a lot to be desired in that role. The longtime offensive coordinator became the primary play caller last season for the first time in years, and he didn’t have the benefits of Sean Payton’s input or Drew Brees’ execution like he had before.
With the offense averaging just 13.8 points per game through the first four weeks this season, a regression from their already-poor scoring output a year ago, it’s fair to wonder how much patience Allen has for him in that role. NewOrleans.Football’s Brooke Kirchhofer asked Allen whether he’d consider a change on the headset after the Bucs embarrassed the Saints 26-9 at home.
“I’m not going there,” Allen said during his postgame press conference. “You know, we’ll go and look and see what we could have done better — all of us, coaches and players — and then we’ll go from there.”
Allen offered Carmichael a vote of confidence, adding that he thought the play calling was much better against the Bucs than in past weeks. But that rings hollow in the face of results. This was one of the worst offensive performances we’ve seen from this team in years and Carmichael is responsible for a big part of it. He dropped the ball in too many situations to escape blame. It’s just one example, but the offense went 5-of-14 on third down with Derek Carr having no options near the first down marker; Carmichael repeatedly sent the receivers too far downfield, forcing Carr to try a difficult throw without the option for a layup. It’s okay to pick up a first down and live another day. Not every swing needs to be a home run.
All that’s said to say that Allen must make a change, whether he wants to acknowledge it immediately postgame or not. Fans aren’t going to want to hear this, but he’s taking the right approach. An emotional decision to dismiss Carmichael on the spot would have been cathartic for viewers but let’s be real: no one deserves to find out they’re losing their job like that. These are conversations that should happen in private before being leaked to the media or formally announced. There are right and wrong ways to treat people here like in any other business.
So if that’s the plan — for Allen and his staff to review the tape, sleep on it, and then make a tough decision to take play-calling away from Carmichael before going in a new direction — then it’s something we can stand behind. The problem arises if Allen does all of that but balks at the possibility of a switch. The Saints can’t keep doing the same thing, running the same plays that aren’t working with the same decision-maker on the headset who hasn’t performed through 21 games with three different quarterbacks, and expect different results. That’s a mistake they can’t afford to make. If Allen takes that path the Saints will likely be looking to replace him and Carmichael both in a few months.
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There’s enough blame to go around. Derek Carr has been exactly the sort of underwhelming quarterback his critics warned the Saints about:
There’s enough blame to go around after the New Orleans Saints’ hugely disappointing 26-9 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and we’ve got to acknowledge a really uncomfortable possibility: Derek Carr’s critics appear to be right about him. He’s playing like exactly the sort of quarterback they lambasted when the Saints signed him this offseason. He’s struggling to manage an offense that has averaged just 13.8 points per game through the first four weeks.
Carr has not elevated the talent around him. In some ways he hasn’t gotten enough out of weapons who looked like obvious fits — big tight end Juwan Johnson broke out last season and was often compared to Carr’s favorite Raiders target Darren Waller but was targeted just a dozen times through the first three games, only once in scoring position inside the red zone.
On Sunday Chris Olave was held to single-digit receiving yards for the first time in his career, finishing with a single 4-yard reception on 5 targets. Michael Thomas didn’t catch his second pass from Carr until there were six minutes left in the third quarter. Carr funneled a ton of passes to Alvin Kamara (who caught all but one of his 14 targets), but they went nowhere, gaining just 33 yards.
Carr did lead the league in completions and yards gained on throws of 20-plus yards through the first two weeks, but that’s because he also led the NFL in pass attempts at that distance. He was being forced to do it against his nature. The Saints have been trying to make him someone he’s not and we’re seeing those limitations now. That might explain why offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael has dialed up so many plays with receivers streaking downfield and few safety valves underneath. They’re desperate for him to connect on those big play opportunities.
This all describes a quarterback who is too eager to check it down, who lacks accuracy and a willingness to attack downfield, and who isn’t a big upgrade over the passers who preceded him. Certainly not to the tune of $150 million, which is how much Carr can earn if he plays out his four-year contract. The Saints structured it without a viable off-ramp until 2025.
Look at what was being written about Carr over the summer. NFL.com’s Mark Sessler ranked him one spot ahead of Andy Dalton (Nos. 23 and 24) during his split with the Raiders, saying that Carr was “destined to be oversold to fans as a solution.”
CBS Sports analyst Will Brinson put Carr in the NFL’s fourth tier as someone who cannot be expected to “take you on a deep playoff run or win you a Super Bowl without a really stout defense/run game combo or the stars simply aligning.”
And Pro Football Focus summarized Carr’s recent performances as such: “Carr’s big plays declined and he was notably less accurate overall. His adjusted completion rate dropped by more than 6 percentage points from the year before to his lowest level since he was a rookie.”
That all lines up with what we’re seeing from him now, which is really unfortunate to admit. The Saints signed Carr believing he could singlehandedly fix many of the problems with their offense while keeping Pete Carmichael at offensive coordinator with the rest of the starting lineup intact. They appear to have lost that gamble.
That’s not to say there isn’t time for Carr to prove his doubters wrong. It’s a long season and he and the Saints still have 13 games to figure things out. But it’s about to be Week 5 and they’re already well behind schedule. Instead of sitting on top of their division after the first month their in a tie for second-place (if you’re generous; tiebreakers have them in third in the NFC South standings).
But this wasn’t the vision the team had. It isn’t what head coach Dennis Allen foresaw when he introduced Carr as their new starting quarterback early this year. Things have gone awry and a lot of people have their hands dirty: Allen, Carmichael, general manager Mickey Loomis, and Carr himself. All they can do now is work to clean up this mess. That might start with some uncomfortable conversations about some peoples’ job security. What they’re doing isn’t working and they can’t try someone besides Carr in his role. So another aspect of the operation is going to have to change if they want different results. Hopefully that all gets sorted out behind the scenes so Carr can put his best foot forward and prove those critics wrong in the end.
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