Analyzing Saturday’s Penn State vs. Oregon odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.
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The No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) and No. 1 Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0) meet Saturday in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game. Kickoff from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Penn State vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Oregon took the Big Ten by storm in its first season in the league, running the table as the only unbeaten team in FBS — though it didn’t have to play Penn State or No. 10 Indiana (11-1, 8-1). It had its close shaves, including a 37-34 win over MWC champ Boise State back on Sept. 7. It also narrowly escaped 32-31 against then-No. 2, now-No. 8 Ohio State Oct. 12, while finding a way at Wisconsin in a 16-13 victory Nov. 16.
Penn State has appeared in the Big Ten Championship Game once before when it edged Wisconsin 38-31 in 2016 behind QB Trace McSorley. Big Ten and college football fans are just hoping for a good game, as the past 6 title games have been decided by 12 or more points, including an average margin of victory of 28.7 points per game (PPG) in the previous 3.
While Oregon is 12-0, it is just 1-2 against the spread (ATS) in the past 3 games and 5-6 ATS as a favorite this season. Excluding being 3.5-point home underdogs vs. Ohio State, not only were the Ducks favored in every game, they were favored by double digits. So, this game — and line — is something new to Oregon backers. Also, the Under is 3-1 in their past 4 road games.
Penn State enters on a 4-game win streak, beating Washington, Purdue, Minnesota and Maryland. The Nittany Lions went 3-1 ATS in the stretch. Their lone loss — a 20-13 defeat — came at home to then-No. 4 Ohio State Nov. 2. The Over finished 3-0 in their final 3 games and the offense scored 35 or more points in 3 of the final 4 outings.
These two did not meet in the regular season.
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Penn State vs. Oregon odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 7:58 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Penn State +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Oregon -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Penn State +3.5 (-115) | Oregon -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Penn State vs. Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 29, Penn State 19
Oregon (-185) will cost nearly 2 times the potential return. That’s quite a bit of risk for a singular bet. If you were to back the Ducks in a multi-leg parlay, it is more than fine to include them in either an all-football parlay or cross-sport ticket.
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PLAY OREGON -3.5 (-105) laying the points in its first foray into the Big Ten title game.
The Ducks have an electric offense, while the Nittany Lions have a suffocating defense. It will be interesting to see if Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel can pick Penn State’s D apart. He has had a special season, and he certainly has the experience.
The Ducks have a lockdown defense, too, and they’ll throw things at Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar just like the Buckeyes did in Happy Valley earlier in the season. He has had success against the dregs of the league, but struggled against the top- and even mid-tier teams.
UNDER 50.5 (-110) is the lean in this battle for the Big Ten crown.
Both teams sport top-10 defensive units. Penn State has allowed 20 or fewer points in 5 of the past 6 games. Oregon has also allowed 21 or fewer points in its past 6 contests, including just 9 points in a battle with No. 21 Illinois in Eugene Oct. 26.
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