Welcome to the first of three sets of bowl projections that I will be providing. Make sure not to miss Phil Harrison’s projections. Every week, Phil projects to the end of the season and gives you where he thinks the Big Ten teams will end up.
I, however, will not be predicting who will win games. Instead, these projections are based on where every team sits now. Meaning, if the season ended today, where would every team be heading to bowl games? That way, readers can know what their team needs to do to move up or down in bowl selection order.
Now, I do have to admit that a small bit of prognosticating is necessary. There are currently only 66 bowl-eligible teams, but there are 39 bowl games. So, only for the purposes of determining who will reach bowl eligibility, I am forced to predict some games. To avoid bias as much as possible in the process, I will assume that the favored team wins each remaining game, and I will use FPI, SP+, Sagarin, and a few others to determine who is “favored.” As of today, these projections say there will be 80 bowl-eligible teams. That number includes Missouri. The Tigers will be left out of these projections as they are currently appealing a bowl ban before the NCAA, and no final decision has been made.
Also, remember that nowadays, bowl projections are more of an art than a science. Most conferences no longer allow the bowls to select teams in order, but instead provide “pools” of teams for certain tiers of bowls. The conferences then work with the bowls to determine which team goes where. Anything can be the cause for this–geography, fan interests, whether the conference thinks its team is more likely to win, or any other reason. Therefore, at the end of this article, I will provide a list of which conference pools would be tied to which bowl. That way, you have as much information as possible when figuring out where your team could be headed.
Finally, keep in mind that these are based on what would happen if the season ends today. The season does not end today, though, so things will change between now and Selection Sunday. However, this is where each team stands right now. (As we approach Selection Sunday, we will be able to hear rumors and whispers as to which team is headed where. I do my best to keep track, and my projections the morning of Selection Sunday will be based mostly on those. For now, though, all we know is that BYU has accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl.)
So, without further ado, here are this week’s bowl projections:
College Football Playoff
| Fiesta Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 4:00 PM | LSU | vs | Georgia |
| Peach Bowl | Sat, Dec 28, 8:00 PM | Ohio State | vs | Clemson |
This is simple enough. No. 1 plays No. 4, and No. 2 plays No. 3. The committee will ensure that the No. 1 team is not given a geographic disadvantage, so LSU will not be forced to play Georgia in Atlanta.
The times for these matchups are flexible and not yet set, but given that Ohio State vs Clemson will be the far bigger draw, I expect that to be the game given primetime billing.