The San Diego Padres (67-54) fell to the Colorado Rockies (53-66) in the first game of their series Monday, but still have a small lead over the Cincinnati Reds in the race for the NL’s second wild-card spot. The two teams meet again Tuesday at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Padres LHP Matt Strahm (0-0, 8.44 ERA) makes his sixth appearance of the season in what will be his first start since August of 2019. He has allowed 5 ER on 11 H and 1 BB against 3 K through 5 1/3 IP.
- Strahm underwent knee surgery in October, which kept him out of action until early August. He has made eight appearances between the minors and majors, topping out at 1 2/3 IP, so don’t expect him to work deep into this game.
- Strahm struggled as a starter in 2019, and pitched exclusively out of the pen in 2020, where he totaled 20 2/3 IP across 19 appearances. His 2.61 ERA looks good on the surface, but it came with a weak 6.5 K/9 and a lot of help from a .196 BABIP.
Rockies RHP German Marquez (10-9, 3.77 ERA) makes his 25th start of the year. He has a 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 140 2/3 IP.
- Marquez has been excellent at Coors Field this season, recording a 3.05 ERA and allowing just 4 homers through 82 2/3 IP.
- He got rouged up in his last start when he gave up 7 ER over 4 IP at the San Francisco Giants. In two starts against the Padres (both on the road) he has allowed 2 ER over 13 IP to go with a 16/5 K/BB.
Padres at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Rockies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+135) | Rockies +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 12.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Prediction
Rockies 7, Padres 4
Money line (ML)
Monday night’s walk-off victory was Colorado’s seventh win in its last eight home games, bringing its record at Coors Field to 39-21 on the season.
Marquez has been pretty reliable all season and gives the Rockies a clear pitching edge in what amounts to a bullpen game for the Padres. Side with the ROCKIES (-115).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Marquez allowed a total of just 8 ER across 53 IP over his last eight starts at home. Even in a tough spot against a strong Padres lineup, he should be able to minimize the damage.
On the other side, the bullpen has been a strength for San Diego all year, as the Padres relief corps leads the majors with a 2.96 ERA. They are really going to have to dig deep here, though, as Strahm isn’t likely to give them more than 2 innings.
ROCKIES +1.5 (-175) makes sense, but going for the better payout with ROCKIES -1.5 (+150) on the alternate line is the preferred play.
Over/Under (O/U)
The under is 6-1 in Colorado’s last seven contests and is 7-1 in Marquez’s last eight home starts. He probably won’t completely shut down the Padres but will do enough to help keep this total UNDER 12.5 (-120).
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