Tag: Padres Reds odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (26-26) and Cincinnati Reds (20-29) wrap up a 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2

The Padres snapped a 2-game skid with a 7-3 win Wednesday. They pounded out 14 hits in the bounceback victory after losing Tuesday’s series opener 2-0. San Diego has won 4 of its last 6 games but is 5-5 over its last 10.

The Reds have lost 4 of their last 5 games and are 4-16 in their last 20.

Padres at Reds projected starters

RHP Matt Waldron vs. RHP Frankie Montas

Waldron (2-5, 5.00 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.42 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 45 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 10 K in 3-1 road win over Atlanta Braves Friday
  • Padres are 2-7 in his starts

Montas (2-3, 4.37 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 35 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 7-3 road loss to Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
  • Career vs. Padres: 1-0, 2.84 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.26 WHIP in 2 starts — last faced them in 2021

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Padres at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Reds -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Reds +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 6, Reds 3

Moneyline

The Padres’ last 3 losses, and 4 of their last 6, have been shutouts.

The Reds haven’t won a series since sweeping the Los Angeles Angels in a 3-game set at home April 19-21.

They’ve won 2 out of 3 games only once in the last 20 outings.

The Padres are 16-10 on the road this season.

Based on the Reds’ last 20 games, you can’t expect them to win a series, so expect a Padres win.

BET PADRES (-110).

Run line/Against the spread

I usually say to either bet the underdog on the moneyline or the favorite on the run line. This is a good game to double down.

Of the Padres’ last 18 wins, 16 have been by at least 2 runs.

But the Reds have five 1-run losses in their last 10 setbacks, so it isn’t as sure a bet.

Go with the moneyline as the main bet, but add a small wager on the run line to potentially ladder the win with greater gains.

BET PADRES -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under

Only 2 of the Reds’ last 8 games have reached 10 total runs.

San Diego’s last 3 wins have all had at least 10 total runs, but those are the only 3 Padres games over their last 15 contests with 10 or more runs.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (25-26) and Cincinnati Reds (20-28) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Great American Ball Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Padres have lost back-to-back games after falling 2-0 against the Reds Tuesday and failing to cash as -113 road favorites. San Diego was unable to facilitate any offense for the 2nd game in a row. RHP Joe Musgrove allowed 0 ER in 3 innings and picked up the loss.

Cincinnati snapped a 3-game losing streak with its win Tuesday as a +104 home underdog. The Reds were held to just 3 hits but scored both of their runs in the 2nd inning. SS Elly De La Cruz had the only RBI of the game, and LHP Andrew Abbott allowed 5 hits in 7 innings to pick up the win.

Padres at Reds projected starters

RHP Michael King vs. RHP Nick Martinez

King (3-4, 4.31 ERA) makes his 10th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 54 1/3 innings.

  • Padres are 6-4 in his outings, including 2-4 in his last 6
  • Has allowed 4 ER or more in 4 of his last 7 starts
  • Has allowed 26 ER and 11 HR this season while striking out 61 and walking 26

Martinez (1-2, 4.23 ERA) makes his 5th start and 11th appearance. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 1.2 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 38 1/3 innings.

  • Reds are 4-6 in his outings
  • Has allowed 18 ER and 2 HR while striking out 29 and walking 5

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Padres at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:56 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Reds +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+135) | Reds +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Padres at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Reds 3

Moneyline

BET PADRES (-125).

The Padres have won 3 of their last 5 games, all on the road, and held opponents to 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their last 5. While they lost to the Reds Tuesday, they held their offense to just 3 hits. Cincinnati has lost 7 of its last 10 games, including 3 of its last 4. It has scored 3 or fewer runs in 5 of its last 6.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

While the run line may be worth a 2nd look for the Padres -1.5 (+135), with their recent offensive woes — being held scoreless in back-to-back games — the moneyline is the better play.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9.5 (-120).

While both pitchers have an ERA above 4.00, both offenses have been struggling as of late. The Padres have been held scoreless in 3 of their last 6 games and scored 4 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 10, while the Reds have scored 3 or fewer in 5 of their last 6.

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The San Diego Padres (38-45) and Cincinnati Reds (44-39) clash in a Sunday game at 1:40 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 3-2

San Diego is off to a good start in putting a late-June slide behind it. The Friars, a club that went 2-9 from June 19-30, won Saturday’s game 12-5.

The Reds had a 3-game win streak snapped in Saturday’s setback. Cincinnati is 8-4 with an .889 OPS over its last 12 games on home turf.

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Padres at Reds projected starters

RHP Adrian Morejon vs. LHP Andrew Abbott

Morejon (0-0, 6.75 ERA) is a reliever making his 1st start since 2021. He has a 2.00 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 4 IP in 4 games.

  • Filling in for RHP Yu Darvish, who is out due to illness; figures to fill an opener role for perhaps 1 inning-plus
  • RHP Pedro Avila, a 26-year-old who has appeared in 4 MLB games over the last 4 years (none this season), is likely to get innings as a bulk reliever

Abbott (4-0, 1.21 ERA) is a rookie making his 6th start. He has registered a 0.94 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 29 2/3 innings.

  • Pitched a combined 172 Minor League innings in 2022 and so far in 2023: clocked a 3.35 ERA and a whopping 13.0 K/9
  • Has benefited from a .186 batting average on balls in play and a 100% left-on-base rate
  • Has gone 6 innings in 4 of his 5 starts
  • Coming off a season-high 108 pitches in his last

Padres at Reds odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Padres +116 (bet $100 to win $116) | Reds -136 (bet $136 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-156) | Reds -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 6, Padres 5

Moneyline

The Padres are 17-5 across the last 22 series meetings; they are 4-1 across their last 5 games in Cincinnati.

The pitching on both sides turns the prognosis for this one into an assessment of the teams overall. At 4.35 runs per game and 4.06 RPG allowed, the under-.500 Padres figure as undervalued. At 4.99 and 5.24, the Reds come in likely overvalued by their winning record.

That’s simplistic, but drilling down into the analytics is an exercise that reveals similar findings in the plus and minus expected runs for each side, what their performances should have produced in terms of real runs.

Give the visitors the nod in bullpen advantage, and Cincinnati is not exactly prolific at home (22-21). An early line move nixed what value their was on the moneyline. In relative terms, despite the cost the run line play is superior.

PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

BACK THE PADRES +1.5 (-164).

Cincinnati plays in a lot of 1-run games. Of late, the Friars have played in a lot of 1- and 2-run affairs.

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Over/Under

The book and bettors were ready for a warmed-up-wind-out-and-humid day in Cincinnati. PASS.

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (11-7) meet the Cincinnati Reds (3-14) Wednesday for the second of their 3-game series at the Great American Ballpark. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego beat Cincy 9-6 in Monday’s series opener thanks to an 8-run 4th inning rally punctuated by a 3-run HR by Padres 1B Eric Hosmer.

Season series: Padres lead 4-0 and have outscored the Reds by 16 runs.

Padres at Reds projected starters

LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Vladimir Gutiérrez

Gore (1-0, 1.74 ERA) beat Cincy 6-0 in his last outing 7 days ago. He went 5 scoreless IP, 4 H, 2 BB and 7 K.

  • vs. Reds on the current roster: 1.30 FIP with a .184 expected batting average (xBA), .252 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .296 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 35.0 K% and 87.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 20 plate appearances (PA).

Gutiérrez (0-3, 5.54 ERA) was on the losing end of that April 20 game vs. San Diego, hurling 4 2/3 IP, allowing 3 ER on 2 H and 4 BB with 2 K.

  • Career vs. the Padres: 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA (14 IP, 14 ER), 16 H, 5 BB and 11 K in 3 starts over 2 MLB seasons.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 9.64 FIP with a .335 xBA, .465 xwOBA, .654 xSLG, 7.7 K% and 84.8 mph EV in 52 PA.

Padres at Reds odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (-105) | Reds +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Padres at Reds picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 7, Reds 3

Money line

PASS even though San Diego is the right side because the Padres (-175) is a little too expensive with a rookie starter on the mound.

But I’m confident enough in San Diego to bet the RL and I’d entertain putting the Padres in a parlay with a similarly priced line for a better payout.

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Run line/Against the spread

BET the PADRES -1.5 (-105) because Gore is a starting pitching prospect  that the San Diego organization has been high on for years and because the Padres have a much better lineup and bullpen than the Reds +1.5 (-115).

Furthermore, Cincy’s lineup struggles against left-handed pitching. The Reds are just 1-5 overall versus lefties (all 5 losses were by at least 2 runs) and their lineup is 29th in wRC+ (61) and 28th in wOBA (.257), per FanGraphs.

On top of that, San Diego’s RL could certainly cash because of Cincy’s weak bullpen, which ranks 29th in both xFIP (4.42) and K/BB (1.85).

TAKE the PADRES -1.5 (-105).

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 8.5 (-115) because Cincy’s home field has the third-highest park factor in the majors and the weather forecast is calling for double-digit mph winds blowing out to right-center field.

However, I cannot fully get down on the Over because of Cincy’s aforementioned struggles versus left-handers and because there’s more money on the Under whereas more of the public is betting the Over.

It appears as though the Under 8.5 (-107) could be the sharp side hence the LEAN OVER 8.5 (-115).

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (49-33) go for a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds (39-40) Thursday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 6-0

San Diego, which swept Cincinnati in four games at Petco Park June 17-20, took the first two games of this series. The Padres won 7-5 in a rain-shortened tilt, which was called in the sixth inning, Wednesday after taking Tuesday’s opener 5-4.

LHP Ryan Weathers is projected to start the series finale for the Padres. The rookie is 3-2 with a 2.47 ERA (47 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 14 appearances, including 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 5 K for Triple-A El Paso June 24
  • Career vs. Reds: No appearances

RHP Luis Castillo is penciled in to start for the Redlegs. The five-year veteran is 3-10 with a 5.14 ERA (84 IP, 48 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 in 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • Career vs. Padres: 2-3, 3.48 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 6 starts

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Reds -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Reds +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 6, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

SAN DIEGO (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Padres are the hottest team in baseball winning 11 of their last 12 games.

They’re also 6-0 vs. Cincinnati this season. Why stop now?

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Back the PADRES -1.5 (+150) with a QUARTER-UNIT play. They’ve covered the spread in 4 of their 6 games vs. the Reds.

Plus, Weathers has pitched well in his eight major-league starts, going 1-1 with a 2.78 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.1 K/9.

The reason for the small wager is because Castillo has pitched well lately. In five June starts, the 2019 All-Star posted a 1.71 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 6 ER) with 32 strikeouts. He’s just not getting run support as his record was only 2-2 for the month.

One of those losses was a tight 3-2 decision to the Padres June 20 when he yielded 3 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 3 walks with 7 K’s over 6 innings.

ATS records: Padres 43-39 | Reds 37-42

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS. The Reds are the best Over team in the NL while the Padres have cashed more Over tickets vs. Under wagers.

I’m just leery of Weathers, and especially Castillo, turning this into a low-scoring affair.

O/U records: Padres 44-37-1 | Reds 45-31-3

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 69-76-3 22-30-1 -12.81
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 175-163-4 73-72-1 +2.3
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (48-33) and Cincinnati Reds (39-39) play the middle contest in a three-game set Wednesday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Joe Musgrove is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres. Over 15 games (14 starts), Musgrove is 4-6 with a 2.22 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 85 IP.

The Friars right-hander tossed 7 shutout frames against Cincinnati June 17. He owns a 1.57 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP over his last 8 starts.

RHP Vladimir Gutierrez is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds. Through six starts, Gutierrez is 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 34 IP.

The rookie right-hander has benefited from some hit-rate friendly traffic conditions. Opponents have a mere .242 batting average on balls in play.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

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Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -190 (bet $190 to win $100) |  Reds +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-120) | Reds +1.5 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Padres 7, Reds 4

Money line (ML)

San Diego took Tuesday’s opener, 5-4, and has gone 10-1 since June 16. The Padres are the lean in this one, but consider the less-juicer run line.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Current Reds batters own a mere .643 OPS against Musgrove, and Cincinnati owns a mere .666 over its last 14 games. Cincy’s lefty bats are a big key in their production; San Diego’s bullpen is very tough on lefties.

BACK THE PADRES -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under (O/U)

With a bit of fade on the starter-and-bullpen combo on the visitors’ side; a more significant fade on Gutierrez; San Diego’s recent surge (.926 OPS last two weeks); the way Cincinnati hits at home (.818 OPS); the Over already has a lean.

Add in some warm, humid conditions and a breeze out the left-center (with Gutierrez being a fly-ball pitcher), TAKE THE OVER 10 (-110).

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San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (47-33) and Cincinnati Reds (39-38) open a three-game series Tuesday at Great American Ball Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Reds odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Padres lead 4-0

The Friars, who had Monday off, are 9-1 in their last 10 games after taking two of three at home from the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend.

Cincy will look to avenge a 4-game sweep at San Diego (June 17-20). The Redlegs beat the Philadelphia Phillies 12-4 in a makeup game Monday scoring 4 runs in the seventh inning and 6 in the eighth.

LHP Blake Snell is projected to start for the Padres Tuesday. He is 3-3 with a 5.29 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 in 15 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 3-2 home victory vs. Los Angeles Dodgers June 22
  • Career vs. Reds: No appearances

RHP Tony Santillan is projected to make his fourth career start – and appearance – for the Reds. The rookie is 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 10.5 K/9 and 5.3 BB/9.

  • Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 5-3 home victory vs. Atlanta Braves Thursday
  • Career vs. Padres: 0-1, 9.00 ERA (3 IP, 3 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, an 8-2 road loss in just his second MLB outing June 18

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Reds odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:15  a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Reds +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (-110) | Reds +1.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Reds 8, Padres 6

Money line (ML)

CINCINNATI (+140) is where the value is.

The Reds are 7-3 in their last 10 home games. The Padres, who just wrapped up a 9-1 homestand, are 1-9 in their last 10 road games.

Plus, Snell has been awful away from Petco Park. He is 0-3 with a 10.36 ERA (28 2/3 IP, 33 ER) with a 2.23 WHIP in 8 road starts this season.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS since we’re already backing the Reds’ ML at plus-money.

ATS records: Padres 42-38 | Reds 36-41

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 10 (-110) is STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

At 44-30-3, the Reds have the best Over record in the NL, and the Padres are third at 43-36-1.

After putting up 12 runs Monday, the Reds lead the majors with 5.83 runs per home game.

The Padres are third in the NL with 4.77 runs per road game.

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JOHNNY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 67-75-3 21-30-1 -14.1725
2020 MLB 80-59-1 39-21 +24.79
2021 (all sports) 173-162-4 72-72-1 +0.9375
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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