The San Diego Padres (44-49) and Philadelphia Phillies (50-42) wrap up their 4-game series at Citizens Bank Park Sunday. First pitch is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Phillies and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Phillies lead 2-1
After winning 5 of their last 6 games before the All-Star break, the Padres have dropped 2 of their first 3 to start the 2nd half, both on Saturday when they lost a doubleheader to the Phillies 9-4 and 6-4. San Diego is 13-11 against the NL East this season.
The Phillies snapped their 3-game losing streak on Saturday with the sweep. OF Kyle Schwarber hit HRs in each game, including a 3-run shot in Game 2. Philadelphia is 23-17 on the season at Citizens Bank Park and is allowing less than 4 runs per game at home.
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Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Lugo (3-4, 3.39 ERA) will make his 13th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 63 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 5-3 home victory vs. Los Angeles Angels on July 5
- Last start vs. Phillies: No-decision, 1 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 10-6 road win on Sept. 17, 2020, as a member of the New York Mets
- 2023 away splits: 1-2, 2.65 ERA (34 IP, 10 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, .238 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 starts
Wheeler (7-4, 4.05 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 104 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 4-3 win at the Miami Marlins on July 7
- Last start vs. Padres: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-0 home victory on May 18, 2022
- 2023 home splits: 2-2, 4.05 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 10 K/9, .230 OBA in 9 starts
Padres at Phillies odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-170) | Phillies -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Padres 5
Moneyline
AVOID.
I like the Phillies to win this game at home but not enough to put down more than 1 1/2 units to win 1 back.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
While I don’t mind the idea of betting the Padres getting the 1 1/2 runs, the odds are not in our favor. Look to the total in this game.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 9 (+100).
You have to love the fact that all 3 games of this series thus far have gone over this total. The Phillies are top 10 in the MLB in runs scored per game at home and San Diego scores just under 5 runs per game on the road.
Also, Wheeler has allowed at least 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts.
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