The Miami Marlins (50-65) host the San Diego Padres (65-52) Monday for their 3-game series opener at loanDepot park with the 1st pitch scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: San Diego leads 3-1
San Diego has won 4 of its last 5 games, which includes 2 straight series victories at home vs. the San Francisco Giants and at the Washington Nationals last weekend.
Miami is 2-8 in the past 10 games and was just swept in a 4-game home series with the Atlanta Braves. The Marlins have lost 5 straight series.
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Padres at Marlins projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Musgrove is 8-5 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 127 IP across 20 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in San Diego’s 7-4 home win vs. the Giants Tuesday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 4 K
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: 1 start, a no-decision in San Diego’s 3-2 home win May 8 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K
Alcantara is 10-5 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 166 IP over 23 starts.
- Last start: Lost 4-3 Wednesday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 7 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K
- 2021 vs. the Padres: 1 start, a 3-2 loss in San Diego May 6 with 4 2/3 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K
Padres at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Padres -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Marlins +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+125) | Marlins +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
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Padres at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Marlins 2
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the PADRES (-145) instead of betting to win 1 unit because we are getting the worst of the number.
San Diego’s ML has been steamed from a -115 opener up to the current number per Pregame.com despite facing the odds-on favorite to win the 2022 NL Cy Young award (Alcantara).
But, Musgrove appeared in his 1st All-Star game this summer and just got a big, new extension. In fact, Musgrove’s xFIP is nearly the same as Alcantara’s (3.38-3.37). Furthermore, Musgrove has a better exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, BB%, chase rate and whiff rate than Alcantara, according to Statcast.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the PADRES (-145) to earn a $68.97 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS with a heavy “lean” towards the Padres -1.5 (+125) because they are 4-1 RL as road favorites with Musgrove on the bump and the Marlins +1.5 (-155) are just 8-15 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-115) because 3 of the first 4 Padres-Marlins meetings this season went Under Monday’s total and Miami is 8-14 O/U in Alcantara starts.
My hesitation with the UNDER 6.5 (-115) is due to this sharp total and San Diego’s 12-8 O/U record when Musgrove is on the mound.
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