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The San Diego Padres (50-49) open the 2nd half Friday with a 3-game set at the Cleveland Guardians (58-37). First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+) at Progressive Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; Padres took 2 of 3 last season
After winning 12 of 15 games to jump into the thick of the Wild Card race, the Padres dropped 6 of 7 heading into the All-Star break. They are 1 game out of a playoff spot as the 2nd half begins.
The Guardians closed the 1st half with a 2-5 road trip, but still maintain the best record in the AL and a 4½ game lead in the AL Central Division. They open the 2nd half at home where they are an MLB-best 30-11 on the season.
Padres at Guardians projected starters
RHP Matt Waldron vs. RHP Tanner Bibee
Waldron (5-8, 3.71 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 106 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 6-1 home defeat vs. Arizona Diamondbacks July 12
- Road splits: 3-3, 3.13 (54 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 in 10 starts
- Allowed just 7 HRs through first 16 starts, but touched up for 5 HRs in last 3 outings, a span in which he yielded 10 ER in 17 1/3 innings for a 5.19 ERA
- Never faced Guardians before
Bibee (7-4, 3.77 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 105 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 5-4 setback at Detroit Tigers July 10
- Home splits: 3-2, 4.69 ERA (48 IP, 25 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 in 9 starts
- Career vs. Padres: 1 road start, loss, 4 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 6-3 setback June 13, 2023
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Padres at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:31 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Padres +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Guardians -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Guardians -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -125)
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Padres at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Guardians 5, Padres 3
Moneyline
The two pitchers in this matchup own nearly identical ERA’s but Bibee boasts the stronger skill set, highlighted by his excellent K/9. Though his ERA at home is a little inflated, his skills there have remained rock solid.
As mentioned, the Guardians have the best home record in the majors, while the Padres are 5-11 in their last 16 road contests. Siding with CLEVELAND (-140) is the smart play here.
Run line/Against the spread
Cleveland seems likely to come out on top, given their dominance at home this season and the edge they have in the pitching matchup. Eleven of their 30 home wins have been by a single run, but a small play on GUARDIANS -1.5 (+145) is worth considering.
Just don’t bet more than 1½ units between the Cleveland ML and the Cleveland RL.
Over/Under
The Over is 15-5-1 in San Diego’s last 21 games. Meanwhile, the total has only gone Under in 13 of the Guardians’ last 40 home games.
This line looks like it’s set right and it’s best to PASS.
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