The Arizona Diamondbacks (35-80) host the San Diego Padres (66-50) Thursday for the opener of their four-game series at Chase Field with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Diego had its four-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a series finale loss at home to the Miami Marlins. The Padres have won six of their last 10 games including taking two of three against the D-Backs this past weekend.
Arizona comes in on a four-game losing skid and has won just two of the last 10 games. The Diamondbacks are 38.5 games back of first place in the NL West.
Season series: Padres 8-4.
RHP Yu Darvish is San Diego’s projected starter. Darvish is 7-6 with a 3.43 ERA (128 2/3 IP, 49 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 22 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 12 K in San Diego’s 6-2 victory over the Diamondbacks Saturday.
- Darvish has notched three no-decisions against Arizona this season (all Padres wins) with a 3.57 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 18 H, 2 BB and 25 K in three starts.
- vs. D-Backs on the current roster (151 PA): 4.68 FIP with a .286 batting average (BA), .374 wOBA, .365 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 32.5 K% and 88.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Taylor Widener makes his 11th start for the D-Backs. Widener is 1-1 with a 4.89 ERA (46 IP, 25 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: No-decision in Arizona’s 6-2 loss to San Deigo Saturday with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- Widener is 1-0 against San Diego with a 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 5 BB and 12 K in two starts.
- vs. Padres on the current roster (50 PA): 6.34 FIP with a .220 BA, .367 wOBA, .518 xSLG, 28.0 K% and 89.9 mph EV.
Padres at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Padres -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
- Against the spread/ATS: Padres -2.5 (+105) | Diamondbacks +2.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)
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Prediction
Padres 8, Diamondbacks 3
Money line (ML)
PASS with a “lean” to the Padres (-220) because San Diego is definitely the right side but a little too expensive to wager on. That said, the Padres have a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen and starting pitching and hitting).
Also, both the Pros and Joes are hammering the Padres in this spot. More than 90% of the action at the time of publishing is on San Diego’s money line according to pregame.com. This has caused oddsmakers to move this number up greatly from the Padres laying -170 on the opener.
If you are leery about laying it with the Padres (-220) then I’d recommend only risking 1 unit on San Diego’s money line instead of betting to win 1 unit. For instance, if your standard wager is $100 then put that on the Padres (-220) to hopefully earn a profit of $45.45.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the ALTERNATE SPREAD of PADRES -1.5 (-135) for a half unit only because of how pricey this run line is. However, Arizona’s lineup is bottom 5 in several advanced hitting metrics and the D-Backs bullpen is also bottom 5 in most advanced pitching categories.
Moreover, Darvish has struggled in general since MLB’s pitching substances policy went into effect June 21. However, he has looked awesome in his two starts vs. Arizona since then.
For instance, Darvish’s two highest scored starts since June 21 came against the D-Backs and he’s had 1.61 or lower FIP in both outings.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+110) for a half unit because despite Darvish’s reputation as a “top of the rotation” starter he’s really struggled since the “Spider Tack” memo dropped June 21. The Padres are 14-8 O/U in his starts.
Furthermore, these teams have a combined 53-44-4 O/U record in division games, San Diego is 20-17 O/U as a road favorite, Arizona is 23-16-2 O/U as a home underdog and the Padres-Diamondbacks have played to the Over in five of their last seven meetings.
My hesitation with the Over here is we are getting to the number very late since this game opened with an 8.5-run total before the market steamed it up to the current number.
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