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San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (67-76) and Houston Astros (81-62) wrap up a 3-game series Sunday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 1-1

The Padres lost 7-5 as +108 underdogs in the 2nd game of the series Saturday. San Diego had a 2-run lead after 4 innings before allowing 5 runs in the 5th.

DH Yordan Álvarez hit a solo HR in the 3rd inning, and RF Kyle Tucker added 2 RBIs to surpass 100 on the season. Houston has won 4 of 5 and owns a 1½-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West.

Padres at Astros projected starters

RHP Matt Waldron vs. RHP J.P. France

Waldron (0-2, 5.12 ERA) makes his 3rd start and 5th appearance. The rookie has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 19 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 3 K in relief during 9-7 home loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Monday
  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks on Aug. 19
  • First career road game
  • Never faced the Astros before

France (10-5, 3.72 ERA) makes his 21st start and 22nd appearance. The rookie has a 1.31 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 121 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 13-6 victory at Texas Rangers Monday
  • 2023 home stats: 4-3, 4.91 ERA (58 2/3 IP, 32 ER) in 10 starts
  • Never faced the Padres before

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Padres at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:42 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-155) | Astros -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

The ASTROS (-145) should take this series Sunday with Waldron on the mound for the Padres. Waldron will be making just his 3rd career start and will be playing in his 1st career road game.

France had a poor showing last time out but has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 8 of his last 10 outings.

BET ASTROS (-145).

Run line/Against the spread

The Astros are just 26-38 on the run line this season as home favorites, according to TeamRankings.com. San Diego +1.5 (-155) will likely hit, but there’s no need to pay the higher price on the run line when Houston ML is the better play.

PASS. Bet the moneyline and/or the total instead.

Over/Under

France should bounce back after allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. While Sunday will be Waldron’s 1st career road game, the Astros average just 4.49 runs per game at home (18th in MLB). With France on the mound and the Astros’ offensive struggles at home, I believe that UNDER 10 (-110) is the better play in Sunday’s matchup.

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San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (67-75) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the Houston Astros (80-62) Saturday. First pitch from Minute Maid Park is at 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Padres lead 1-0

The Padres opened a 9-game road trip with an 11-2 victory in the series opener Friday. San Diego has won 5 of its last 7 games but is still 7 games back for the final NL Wild Card.

The Astros have now lost 4 of their last 7 but the 3 wins were a sweep over the AL West rival Texas Rangers. Houston has a 1/2-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West and has opened up a 3-game lead over the Rangers.

Padres at Astros projected starters

RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Cristian Javier

Lugo (6-6, 3.49 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 121 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 4-0 home win over San Francisco Giants Sunday
  • Recorded a 1.24 ERA across 29 IP over his last 5 starts

Javier (9-3, 4.65 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 137 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 6-1 home loss to New York Mets on Sunday
  • Owns a 5.84 ERA through 29 1/3 IP in last 6 starts

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Padres at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:43 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Padres at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Astros 2

Moneyline

Lugo has been lights out over the last month and the Padres have won 3 of his last 4 starts. They are 28-39 on the road but the Astros are only 35-35 at home this season.

Javier has been giving up runs recently.

The Astros have been feast or famine with their bats. In their last 7 wins, they have averaged 13 runs a game. In their last 6 losses? 1.8 runs.

BET PADRES (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

The Astros are an awful 44-60 ATS as favorites this season.

The Padres have won outright 22 times in their last 24 games covering the spread.

If you like the Padres to cover, then you will want to take the moneyline for those nice plus odds.

PASS.

Over/Under

Four of Lugo’s last 5 starts have had 9 or fewer runs.

Seven of the Padres’ last 11 games have not passed a 9-run total. Eight of their last 10 wins have not reached double-digit total runs.

BET UNDER 9 (-110).

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San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres (66-75) and Houston Astros (80-61) open up a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park Friday. First pitch is at 8:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting Padres won 4 of 6 games in 2021

After an off day Thursday, the Friars head into Houston after dropping 2 of 3 to the Philadelphia Phillies to start the week. San Diego is just 11-19 over the last 30 games and sits 7 games out of an NL Wild Card spot. However, the Padres have had success in interleague play, going 21-16.

The Astros are fresh off a 3-game sweep of the fading Texas Rangers from Monday to Wednesday. Houston is 7-3 over the last 10 games and holds a half-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the AL West. The Astros are 23-17 in interleague play.

Padres at Astros projected starters

LHP Blake Snell vs. RHP Hunter Brown

Snell (12-9, 2.50 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 155 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 8 K against the San Francisco Giants Saturday
  • Last 5 starts vs. Astros: 2-2, 5.60 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 27 K in 27 1/3 IP

Brown (10-10, 4.53 ERA) makes his 26th start and 27th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 137 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 5 K Saturday against New York Yankees
  • Home/road splits: 3-6, 5.56 ERA, 1.62 WHIP in 11 home starts; 7-4, 3.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 14 road starts, 15 games

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Padres at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Padres at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Astros 3

Moneyline

The Astros are beatable at home as they’re just 35-34. Snell is closing in on the NL Cy Young Award and hasn’t allowed a run in his last 2 starts and has a 2.20 ERA in his last 7 turns. Before sweeping the Rangers, the Astros were swept at home by the lowly New York Yankees. I’ll take a chance on PADRES (+110).

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres’ side is too juiced up at -185 to consider. I would consider taking BLAKE SNELL OVER 6.5 K’s (+105) here. He has struck out 7 or more in 7 of his last 8 starts.

Over/Under

The Padres are 4-5-1 O/U over the last 10, and Houston is 7-2-1. Snell has pitched to the Under in 4 straight starts. The Under has cashed in 3 of the last 5 meetings between the clubs. This is a little tall of a number for me the way that Snell has been pitching lately.

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-105).

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San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (34-19) try for the sweep Sunday against the Houston Astros (27-24) in Minute Maid Park at 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego rallied from a 5-run deficit Saturday in the eighth and ninth innings before beating Houston in a second straight extra-innings game, 11-8.

Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. blasted a 3-run shot in the top of the ninth to tie it at 6-all. Tatis also hit a tying solo home run in the top of the eighth in San Diego’s 10-3 extra-innings win Friday over Houston.

Season series: Padres 2-0.

LHP Blake Snell makes his 11th start for the Padres. Snell is 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA (44 IP, 22 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 5.7 BB/9 and 13.7 K/9 this season.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-3, in 3 2/3 IP with 5 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 7 K Monday at the Milwaukee Brewers.
  • Career vs. Astros: 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.49 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 over six regular-season starts.
    • Snell was 1-1 in his two starts against the Astros in the 2020 American League Championship Series (Games 1 and 6) with 9 IP, 3 ER, 9 H, 6 BB and 6 K.
    • vs. Astros on the current roster (including postseason): 107 at-bats with a .308/.393/.561 slash line, 21/15 K/BB, 7 HR and 12 RBIs.

RHP Zack Greinke is the projected starter for the Astros. Greinke is 4-2 with a 3.97 ERA (65 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 11 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 9-2, in 6 IP with 4 ER, 3 H, 3 BB and 5 K Tuesday vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Career vs. Padres: 13-3 with a 2.44 ERA (169 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 0.92 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 across 26 starts.
    • vs. Padres on the current roster: 129 at-bats with a .178/.243/.271 slash line, 40/11 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Padres at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:52 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Astros 6, Padres 4

Money line (ML)

BET the ASTROS (-105) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because of their edge in the starting pitching department and it avoids a Houston bullpen that has blown two games already this series and has struggled on the year.

Houston’s lineup is ranked in the top 5 vs. left-handed pitching in several advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA, BB/K rate and hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, Snell has a 7.23 FIP, .393 wOBA and 15.6% strikeout rate vs. Astros on the current roster (109 plate appearances) while Greinke has a 3.14 FIP, .230 wOBA and 27.8% strikeout rate vs. current Padres (133 plate appearances).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -0.5 (+155) FIRST 3 INNINGS alternate run line because the top of Houston’s order hits well against Snell, who has been behind after three innings in six of his 10 starts this season.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS since the Over has cashed in the first two games of this series with late- or extra-inning rallies because Houston’s bullpen cannot hold a lead.

Also, the Astros hitters have done alright in the batter’s box against Snell so that, and the price-point rules out the Under 4.5 (-125) First 5 Innings.

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San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (32-19) kick off a three-game interleague set with the Houston Astros (27-22) on Friday at Minute Maid Park . First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego just split a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers this week but is 15-5 in the last 20 games and atop the NL West by a half-game.

Houston also split its two-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers after being swept by the Texas Rangers last weekend and is 5-5 in the past 10 games.

Season series: 0-0.

RHP Dinelson Lamet makes his fourth start for the Padres. Lamet is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA (11 IP, 2 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 over three starts and two bullpen appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 3 IP with 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 5 K in San Diego’s 6-4 win vs. the Seattle Mariners last Saturday.
  • Career vs. Astros: No appearances.

RHP Framber Valdez makes his season debut for the Astros. Valdez was 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 last season.

  • Career vs. Padres: No appearances.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Padres at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:51 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Astros -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Padres -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Padres 5, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

BET the PADRES (-105) for 1 unit because San Diego has a significant edge in the pitching department and the lineup’s bats are coming alive. Lamet was terrific in 2020 and has been even better this season.

For instance, Lamet graded in the 89th percentile of expected wOBA, 84th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 94th percentile of K% last season.

Furthermore, Valdez had a good to very good 2020 but was graded in the 4th percentile in hard-hit rate and 5th percentile in exit velocity and San Diego’s lineup is starting to hit closer to expectation.

Over the past two weeks, the Padres hitters are fifth in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA and second in BB/K rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the PADRES -1.5 (+150) for a quarter unit for the aforementioned reasons and San Diego’s bullpen being way better than Houston’s.

The Padres relievers have the best xFIP and SIERA, second-highest left-on-base percentage and seventh-best WAR while the Astros’ bullpen is 23rd in WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-120) ALTERNATE TOTAL for a quarter unit mostly because more than 95% of the money is currently on the Over in Padres-Astros, according to Pregame.com.

I get it; both starters are relatively unknown and Valdez is making his 2021 debut so there could be a “rust factor” with him.

With that said, these guys have top of the rotation stuff and it’s generally profitable in sports gambling to fade such lopsided markets.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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