Pac-12 men’s basketball could get only two NCAA Tournament bids

Pac-12 men’s basketball is dying an agonizing death.

The last Pac-12 football season was spectacular. Washington made the College Football Playoff National Championship Game after beating Texas in a playoff semifinal. Oregon made a New Year’s Six bowl and had a strong season, basically the same season USC football had in 2022 (11 regular-season wins and two losses to one team). Michael Penix and Bo Nix were both Heisman Trophy finalists. Yet, as great as Pac-12 football was, Pac-12 men’s basketball has been awful in its final season.

You know that USC and UCLA have had disastrous seasons and can only make the NCAA Tournament by winning the Pac-12 Tournament. Beyond the Los Angeles schools and their own woes, however, the problems run a lot deeper for the conference which is about to die.

Believe it or not, the Pac-12 could very realistically have only two NCAA Tournament teams. We say that because of what happened on the weekend relative to the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Let’s dive into the details:

Pac-12 MBB Power Rankings: Teams making moves with time running out

Arizona State’s upset win over Arizona was the biggest game in the Pac-12 last week, as teams start to settle in ahead of the tournament.

March is nearly upon us, and the 2023 Pac-12 Tournament is going to be a doozy with multiple teams squarely on the bubble of making the NCAA Tournament.

Arizona State took a huge leap forward with their epic, buzzer beating victory over rival Arizona on the road Saturday, and they now have a chance to go even further with games against USC and UCLA to close out the regular season.

USC has made up some ground as well, having won eight of their last 10 games, but losses at Oregon and at Oregon State hurt their resume and have them in a precarious position before their final games against Arizona and Arizona State.

Everyone else is hoping for a miracle run in the conference tournament to potentially earn themselves an auto-bid or a surprise at-large consideration, with the Pac-12 only guaranteed two teams in the big dance – far less than every other Power-5 conference at this point in the regular season.

Without further ado, here is a look at the Pac-12 power rankings heading into the final week of the regular season:

Ranking 10 possible Pac-12 expansion candidates in men’s basketball

Here is a look at ten schools the Pac-12 could consider for conference expansion, ranked in order of men’s basketball success.

At this point it is basically impossible to know what the Pac-12 will look like in 2024. UCLA and USC will be gone, we know that much, but will the conference add two new members by then? Will the Big-12 pick off the four corner schools? Will Oregon and Washington find a way into the Big Ten? Will an agreement be in place with the ACC to create a coast-to-coast super conference?

While we wait to see if the conference of champions can find a creative way to stay afloat in an era dominated by television dollars, let’s take a look at ten of the most likely options for the Pac-12 to add via expansion – and specifically how those additions would impact things on the men’s basketball side.

It’s no secret football, and market size, are the two biggest factors when evaluating individual programs and their viability in the Pac-12. However, losing UCLA is a tremendous blow for a conference that has very little footprint in men’s basketball right now, and making an addition (or two) that helps the Pac-12 make more noise in March wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Here is a look at 10 programs to consider for expansion; eight which were mentioned in this article as expansion options, as well as two more dark-horse candidates should Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff try to get a little spicy.

How SDSU and SMU would alter Pac-12 men’s basketball landscape

The rumored additions of San Diego State and SMU would change the chemistry of the Pac-12 men’s basketball programs in a significant way.

It’s no secret Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff’s visit to Dallas wasn’t just to see the sights. The conference is hoping to mitigate the major losses of UCLA and USC – who are jumping to the Big Ten in 2024 – by bringing two more programs into the fray, and Dallas resident SMU is high on the list.

SMU may not have household athletic programs, but what they do offer is a chance for the Pac-12 to have a footprint in the fifth largest media market in the United States, as well as an opportunity for Pac-12 schools to play closer to the recruiting hotbed that is the state of Texas.

SMU’s rumored addition to the Pac-12 goes hand-in-hand with the longstanding rumor that Mountain West powerhouse San Diego State is also joining the conference, keeping the Pac-12 name an honest one.

San Diego’s media presence isn’t as big as Dallas, but it is an obvious replacement for the loss of USC and UCLA, and their football and basketball programs have been very good as of late.

Basketball in particular is a welcome addition, as the loss of UCLA in particular is devastating for the image of the Pac-12 in men’s basketball. UCLA is an absolutely iconic brand for college basketball, and they are not just a historical program they are one of the best teams in the game right now.

USC doesn’t quite have the history or the recent success of UCLA, but they are inside the Field of 68 as of now and have been to the tournament in four of the last seven years, including a trip to the Elite 8 in 2021.

The Aztecs would provide an immediate boost, as they boast a 19-5 record on the season and are in first place in an excellent Mountain West conference. However, the picture looks bleaker when considering SMU, who is currently 9-16 and in eighth place in the AAC.

Of course, conference realignment is driven by many things before basketball is a consideration, but after football men’s basketball is the biggest moneymaker for Division 1 institutions.

Here is a look, using KenPom’s program history rankings – which date from 1997-2022 – at how the Pac-12 would stack up with this potential transition: