Pac-12 media rights disaster: no Plan B even as Big 12 votes to include Arizona

The walls seem to be closing in on the #Pac12, so where’s the Plan B to stave off extinction? No one seemed to have planned ahead.

Thursday night, the Big 12 voted to approve the inclusion of the University of Arizona to the conference. The Arizona Board of Regents still has to approve the move, which it hasn’t yet done. Arizona State University President Michael Crow, a longtime defender of Larry Scott and someone clearly vested in the preservation of the Pac-12, doesn’t want to leave. Yet, he can see the conference crumbling around him. He knows this media deal isn’t generating sufficient revenue. He knows the ASU community wants to get out of the Pac-12 and leave this sinking ship before it descends to the bottom of the Pacific (12) Ocean.

The writing is on the wall.

Crow wants to delay this move as long as possible, partly to see if George Kliavkoff can come up with an alternative rescue plan, but mostly due to optics. He wants to be seen as a guy who defended the Pac-12 to the very end and didn’t relish moving to the Big 12 at all (which would be true enough).

Crow’s move reeks of desperation, but it does buy Kliavkoff at least a little time to come up with a Plan B. However, are there any signs of that alternative plan? Is there any indication Kliavkoff or the Pac-12 are doing anything to stave off extinction? Our friends at Ducks Wire are just as bewildered as we are.

Let’s look at the details of this unfolding media rights catastrophe in the Pac-12, which is now on its deathbed for reasons which were entirely preventable:

Pac-12 still hasn’t landed a deal, but Apple is reportedly a player

We won’t make predictions regarding a #Pac12 deal, but reports indicate an Apple deal has been put before the presidents.

The Pac-12 has not finalized a media rights deal. (What? You thought the Pac-12 would move swiftly and get a deal done?) We’re still in a wait-and-see position. Meetings have been held. More meetings have been scheduled. It’s still just talk, not action. Skepticism is warranted until George Kliavkoff lands the plane and keeps the conference together … and alive.

We’re not offering any predictions. That is and has been a fool’s errand in the Pac-12 media space and in the world of realignment. Two weeks ago, it did not seem that Colorado was going to leave for the Big 12. Two weeks ago, it did not seem that the realignment chessboard was about to spit out several new movements and reshape the industry once again.

Everything changed quickly. That’s how this goes. Predictions are for fools.

However, we can note that ESPN’s Pete Thamel has reported that a potential deal involving Apple was presented to the Pac-12 presidents on Tuesday. The Pac-12 was always rumored to be pursuing a digital media rights deal, a streaming package to accompany a linear TV arrangement. This appears to be that attempt. No word has emerged if Amazon has also been part of serious, advanced talks about a Pac-12 deal.

Stay tuned:

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Colorado is impatient, so George Kliavkoff has only one chess move left

Deal or no deal? That’s the only relevant question before Colorado’s board of regents meets to leave the Pac-12.

There is really only one move left for George Kliavkoff to make. The question is whether he has the skill and the finesse to pull it off.

You can imagine how frantic and hectic Kliavkoff’s life is right now, on the evening of Wednesday, July 26, 2023. His position as Pac-12 commissioner is truly at stake.

If the conference dies, he’s out of a job. More than that, he will go down in history as the man who failed to keep the Pac-12 together and, ultimately, in existence. No one wants that on his career biography, so if Kliavkoff wants to save everything, including the Pac-12, there’s only one thing he needs to focus on in the next 12 to 20 hours, before Colorado’s board of regents meets to discuss a probable move to the Big 12.

Let’s go through the plot points attached to this one final rescue plan for the Pac-12:

Pac-12 emergency arrives as Colorado considers move to Big 12

.@BuffaloesWire is covering the CU #Big12 story. We & @Ducks_Wire are wondering what George Kliavkoff will do. It’s a 5-alarm fire.

Is this it? Is this the end of the Pac-12? The next 24 hours could be a very wild ride in the conference and in all of college sports.

Our friends at Buffaloes Wire have picked up on the reports from Wednesday afternoon in which the University of Colorado will consider a possible move to the Big 12 Conference at a meeting scheduled for Thursday. Plenty of people close to the situation think the Buffs are pretty much out the door at this point, though that view is not unanimous.

There are a lot of interesting angles to this story, and while we can’t do a deep-dive discussion of all of the various components to this mess, we can at least give you a brief awareness of the scope and reach of this development.

Let’s start by simply noting that over the past weekend, we mentioned that Colorado athletic director Rick George quickly jetted out of Pac-12 media day instead of sticking around for the full day’s proceedings. It might have seemed innocuous to some, but it certainly created an impression and caught some people off guard.

It certainly did not seem like the action a Pac-12 athletic director would take if he was happy about his school’s situation within the conference. It might be that the event was more significant than we knew at the time.

Let’s now dive into this existential crisis for the Pac-12, whose very existence is now legitimately up in the air:

Colorado athletic director abruptly leaves Pac-12 media day after George Kliavkoff presser

Kliavkoff botched the #Pac12 media rights part of his long-anticipated remarks. Colorado AD Rick George went to the airport.

A few big stories dominated Pac-12 media day. The biggest story, whether anyone likes it or not, was Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff doing a relatively poor job of handling the topic national writers and commentators were primarily interested in: the Pac-12’s media rights negotiations. Kliavkoff’s remarks suggested that the Pac-12 had arrived at a deal or was extremely close to nailing down a deal. When pressed to clarify his remarks, Kliavkoff said no one should read too much into them.

Kliavkoff perpetuated the story and added to the lingering sense of uncertainty in the conference, instead of finding a middle-ground way to say that progress had been made in negotations, but not enough to have a fully-finalized deal.

Anyone in the room in Las Vegas could see that Kliavkoff bungled this very important moment, the comissioner’s most public and prominent moment after several months of radio silence on the matter while he engaged in negotiations and held lots of meetings with the Pac-12 CEO Group.

One person who didn’t stick around for the rest of Pac-12 media day after the Kliavkoff press conference early in the morning: Colorado Athletic Director Rick George.

In this show at The Voice of College Football with host Mark Rogers, Tony Siracusa of Last Word on College Football reported that George went straight to the airport to catch a flight out of Vegas after Kliavkoff’s unpolished moment in front of the cameras and the press. It was the clearest and most visible sign that Kliavkoff did not perform well in this very public setting.

That was one big story. Get a look at other big stories from around the Pac-12 on media day, including hilarious and shocking quotes from Utah coach Kyle Whittingham:

George Kliavkoff remarks suggest Pac-12 media rights deal is essentially done

Comments at #Pac12 media day suggested that a media rights deal was near completion, but Kliavkoff wouldn’t confirm that.

This is exhausting.

The Pac-12, still not in possession of a media rights deal or a signed grant of rights from the 10 schools that will be members after USC and UCLA leave for the Big Ten, is lingering in limbo.

Fans, journalists and other stakeholders in the college sports industry want to see the Pac-12 land the plane and arrive at a place of clarity and finality on all of the issues swirling around the conference since June 30, 2022, when the USC-UCLA bombshell hit the headlines.

Friday morning at Pac-12 media day, Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff made his long-awaited public appearance and remarks after months of radio silence. Kliavkoff, buried in negotiations and understandably not wanting to comment at all until a deal was done (or at least close to done), has kept an appropriately low profile for a long time. However, media day is meant for presenting a strong public face and a healthy, robust image to the wider world and the larger college sports community.

It would seem natural to want to announce a media rights deal, especially if the results are great. That would create positive buzz and brighten the mood for all the coaches and players assembled in Las Vegas, not to mention other coaches and athletes in the entire conference.

To be clear, if outside industry forces (ESPN needing to negotiate an equity-sharing agreement with Comcast, Apple or Amazon) need to run their course for a few more weeks before the Pac-12 can sign and finalize its pending deals, fine. Everyone can understand that. Kliavkoff could have said something to that effect (even without being overly direct about it).

Instead, Kliavkoff said this:

Here was the follow-up:

A reasonable person would indeed infer that Kliavkoff’s remarks point to the completion — or near-completion — of a media rights deal, and that the Pac-12 is simply waiting for the right time to make that particular announcement. Yet, Kliavkoff chose to be more ambiguous, not less.

It’s obviously frustrating for a lot of people, and it allows outside observers to continue to wonder what is truly going on behind the scenes. Pac-12 media day offered the possibility of getting more clarity on everything. While one could say Kliavkoff’s remarks added clarity (a deal seems to be almost certainly on the horizon at this point), they haven’t lifted the veil and given all of us a true understanding of what’s going on.

That’s what we all wanted. We’ll obviously have to wait a little longer to get the fuller story on this prolonged saga, which still has more chapters left to be written.

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Possible reason for Pac-12 super confident attitude on media rights emerges

We’re all asking why the #Pac12 is so confident despite the delays and the SDSU no-go. @AndrewMarchand found something.

Everyone in college sports is asking the same question right now: Why is the Pac-12 so obviously confident in its not-yet-finished media rights deal? San Diego State isn’t coming in 2024, which means SMU isn’t coming, either. The Pac-12 supposedly needed the football inventory from those schools to get a competitive price point in a media rights package.

Also, the media deal will not be done in time for Pac-12 media day on Friday, July 21, or at least, that is what has circulated among Pac-12 insiders plus ESPN. George Kliavkoff will not have a deal to announce to the world. That was supposedly a very big thing.

Expansion is on hold. The rights deal has continuously been pushed back and back and back. The Pac-12 should be in misery, frantic and desperate to make something happen. Yet, like the Stepford wives or like people in “Invasion of the Body Snatchers” after they have been replaced by the alien pods, Pac-12 executives and administrators are eerily relaxed and calm.

“I’m fine. No worries. Everything’s great. We have no pressure.” It does feel like science fiction in many ways. What’s going on? What are we missing?

There is obviously some underlying reason Pac-12 sources are so confident despite a situation that outwardly seems far less than optimal.

We might finally have our reason, though it’s not anything formally confirmed or official.

Andrew Marchand of the New York Post, who hosts a widely-respected and prominent sports media podcast with John Ourand of Sports Business Journal, had Bank of America’s Jessica Reif Ehrlich on his most recent podcast episode. Reif Ehrlich said that Disney CEO Bob Iger’s recent comments could potentially point to a situation in which ESPN and Comcast join forces:

Chris Novak of Awful Announcing picked up on this story and wrote the following:

“But how would Comcast and Disney/ESPN want to find some type of deal here? It doesn’t really make sense. … That is, unless you consider the two companies are already at the table negotiating Disney’s planned buyout of Comcast’s stake in Hulu.

“In May, CNBC reported that Comcast was primed to sell its stake in the streaming service to Disney at the beginning of 2024. This alone is going to be a transaction in the billions as Comcast holds a 1/3 stake in Hulu, which is valued somewhere near $30 billion. Whenever a valuation on Comcast’s stake is agreed upon, it’s not hard to envision a scenario where Comcast opts to take some of that payment in equity in ESPN versus cash, which Disney would likely welcome. Disney, Inc currently owns 80 percent of ESPN, while 20 percent goes to Hearst for reference. Could Comcast take some of their Hulu cashout and maybe throw some more cash to take a Hearst-like stake in ESPN and leave ESPN as the majority holder?”

When you realize that the Pac-12 has a mess with Comcast it has needed to clean up, and when you realize that the Pac-12 needs both linear and digital components to a media rights package, the idea of linking up with ESPN after ESPN unites with an equity partner in a stronger, more fortified company with tentacles reaching into every avenue of the sports broadcasting industry comes across as the kind of scenario which could save the Pac-12. The price point, the menu of offerings, the overall visibility for games, everything you could think of, would all fall into place.

We’re not saying this deal is done, but we are saying George Kliavkoff has been studying this and thinks some endgame with ESPN and an equity partner — whether Comcast or Apple or Amazon or Google — is inevitable and likely to happen in the next four to six weeks.

This would indeed explain why the Pac-12 is confident when outward events would seem to offer no reason for such extreme comfort and calm.

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The big question the Pac-12 will soon need to answer

Why are #Pac12 insiders so confident about the media rights deal if San Diego State isn’t joining in 2024? What are we missing?

The Pac-12 won’t have a media rights deal to unveil at Pac-12 media day on July 21. The conference fell short of its best-case scenario. Yet, if you read the reports from ESPN and Jon Wilner and other outlets which have been following this ongoing story, you will note that Pac-12 sources are “super confident” of the deal they claim they are about to reach.

Wilner, at The Wilner Hotline, quoted a Pac-12 source as saying, “The patience the presidents have shown is about to pay off. The longer we wait, the more bidders there are and the better the outcome.”

Another source told Wilner that the Pac-12 presidents were willing to “wait it out for people to come back to the (negotiating) table. They locked arms and fought through the last nine-to-12 months.”

Pac-12 sources are speaking like people who have already won a victory. Either everything is being lined up properly, or this is the most disingenuous, prolonged set of shameless smokescreens in the history of conference media rights negotiations.

The question the Pac-12 will ultimately have to answer is this: What is giving the Pac-12 such confidence that it will arrive at a deal with a price point and overall terms which will make its member schools happy, even though San Diego State — remaining in the Mountain West — won’t be part of the first year (at minimum) of this media rights deal in 2024?

Industry insiders have generally believed the Pac-12 would need added inventory — meaning a 12-member conference with over a dozen more football games per season — to reach a price point which would be sufficiently competitive with the Big 12. Unless a last-minute flip-flop is in the works with San Diego State — which would bring the Aztecs to the Pac-12 by July of 2024 and have them on board for the 2024 college football season — what has the Pac-12 done behind the scenes to inspire such total confidence that its deal will be successful?

We can’t wait to see how this question is answered.

Wilner projects that the Pac-12 will take four to six more weeks to ultimately disclose details of its media rights package, meaning the reveal will occur before the end of August.

The answers aren’t here yet, but it might not be that much longer before we learn the deeper details of this seemingly neverending story.

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Trojans Wire previews Pac-12 media day on national YouTube show

Monday, we talked to @MarkRogersTV about #Pac12 media day. News broke on Tuesday, but this is still a relevant conversation.

Pac-12 media day is Friday. On our weekly show with Mark Rogers at The Voice of College Football, we previewed what might happen. Since we recorded the show on Monday night, fresh news has emerged. It slightly changes the parameters of the preview, but not dramatically.

Let’s catch up before we lead into our show with Mark on his USC YouTube channel.

On Tuesday, two important stories broke, three if you want to parse them more finely.

The first story is that the Mountain West Conference accepted San Diego State as a member school without demanding a $16.5 million exit fee. This resolved (temporarily) the confusion surrounding San Diego State officially leaving the Mountain West.

The second story from Tuesday with relevance for the Pac-12 and its media day was the report by ESPN that a Pac-12 media deal will be completed in the “near future.” That report was accompanied by widespread reports that the Pac-12 won’t announce any media rights deal on or before Pac-12 media day.

Many will say that the Pac-12 not having an announcement on Pac-12 media day is a defeat for the conference. However, ESPN reporting complete with Pac-12 sourcing suggests that ESPN has proximity to the situation, which means a delay in the finalization of a deal is unlikely to hurt the Pac-12’s relationship with ESPN and any other TV or streaming partners.

Yes, we said it would be ideal for the Pac-12 if it finalized its media rights package by Pac-12 media day, but the absolute requirement was to be close enough on a deal — with agreeable terms or clearly positive progress — that member schools would be happy with the situation and therefore disinclined to bolt for the Big 12 or anywhere else.

It appears that is the case. However, the lack of finalization offers the possibility that an unexpected plot twist could throw a monkey wrench into everything.

Let’s go back to our show with Mark Rogers. The one thing we said on the show which seems particularly noteworthy after Tuesday’s news developments is that the Pac-12 is probably going to emerge with a media rights deal which does not have San Diego State or SMU football inventory in 2024. The Pac-12 will have 10 schools in 2024 and split media rights revenues 10 ways, so that the 10 schools get a larger cut. The plan is likely for SDSU and SMU to join in 2025 and provide the increased inventory the Pac-12 will need on a long-term basis.

Here’s our show with Mark, previewing Pac-12 media day and more at The Voice of College Football:

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ESPN reports that details of Pac-12 media deal will be revealed in ‘near future’

The key detail here is that ESPN is reporting this. If a source is talking to ESPN, it suggests ESPN will be part of the #Pac12 deal.

The Pac-12 will not have a finalized media rights deal for Pac-12 media day on Friday, July 21. However, it appears that a deal is close enough for sources to talk to ESPN about it, which is really the main thing the Pac-12 absolutely had to have.

Heather Dinich of ESPN reported on Tuesday that a Pac-12 source told ESPN a media rights deal would be done in the “near future.”

Dinich wrote and reported the following:

“The deal will not be announced at Pac-12 football media day on Friday in Las Vegas, the source told ESPN. It is likely to include a mix of streaming and linear options and is expected to be on-par with the ACC and Big 12, the source said.

“‘Our 10 schools have been ridiculously patient,’ the source said, adding that the league’s patience to make a deal has led to more bidders coming to the table. ‘That patience is about to pay off.'”

Let’s be clear about what’s going on here: It’s true that the Pac-12 won’t have its media deal ready for media day on July 21, but the people close to the negotiations are extremely confident not only that the endgame is near, but that the result will be very good for the Pac-12 … and are willing to tell ESPN about it.

That last detail is in many ways the most important one.

It’s one thing when Pac-12 sources talk to Pac-12 reporters such as Jon Wilner and John Canzano. It’s another when Pac-12 sources are expressing confidence to ESPN. After all, ESPN is a prospective TV partner for the Pac-12.

People might doubt the Pac-12’s confidence level or accuracy when inside sources talk to Pac-12-based reporters, but when conference sources are talking to ESPN, that would tell everyone — even the people most skeptical of the Pac-12 — that ESPN is going to be part of a Pac-12 media deal, and that ESPN and the Pac-12 feel mutually confident about the result of the deal.

That would explain the strange and unusual combination of realities we have in front of us: First, that the media negotiations will drag on past Pac-12 media day (which was seemingly a bad thing for the Pac-12), and second, that Pac-12 sources feel great about the progress the conference has made on the deal. The process is taking longer than most expected, and longer than many people hoped, but if the Pac-12 is confident and if ESPN is reporting what Pac-12 sources are saying, it seems the two parties are perfectly content with the situation as it is.

We will have much more on these related stories as the week continues.

Mountain West media days are Wednesday and Thursday. Pac-12 media day is Friday. Stay with Trojans Wire for more on all of this.

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