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The Mississippi State Bulldogs (1-3, 0-1 SEC) meet the 2nd-ranked Texas Longhorns (4-0, 0-0) Saturday in a conference game at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Mississippi State vs. Texas odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Bulldogs have had issues, dropping 3 in a row since a 56-7 win against FCS Eastern Kentucky to open the season. After a narrow 30-23 loss at Arizona State, Mississippi State was pounded 41-17 at home against Toledo, and it lost 45-28 to Florida.
To make matters worse, the Bulldogs lost QB Blake Shapen to a season-ending shoulder injury. Freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. will make his 1st start in Shapen’s absence.
Texas also has a quarterback injury question, as QB Quinn Ewers has been sidelined since exiting the UTSA win Sept. 14 due to an abdominal injury. QB Arch Manning has started in his place, and fared well, accounting for 7 total TDs and 2 INTs in the past 2 games.
– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Mississippi State at Texas odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 12:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Off the Board (OTB)
- Against the spread: Mississippi State +38.5 (-110) | Texas -38.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 60.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mississippi State at Texas picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 54, Mississippi State 13
Moneyline
There was no moneyline at the time of publishing, but it wouldn’t be worth pursuing anyway.
PASS.
Against the spread
Look to TEXAS -38.5 (-110) heading into this game. Regardless of whether Ewers or Manning is under center for the Longhorns, it should be able to coast by the heavy underdog Mississippi State +38.5 (-110) side.
The Bulldogs are adjusting to a new QB under center, and making your 1st collegiate start in Austin against the No. 2 team in the nation is an extremely tall order.
Texas is a perfect 4-0 ATS in 4 tries this season, while Mississippi State has failed to cover 3 in a row, going 0-3 ATS in its 3 games against FBS opponents.
Over/Under
OVER 60.5 (-110) is a strong play in this game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Texas do most of the heavy lifting, if not cash high all on its own without any assistance from Mississippi State.
The Over has cashed in each of the past 2 games for the Bulldogs, with the defense coughing up 43.0 PPG to unranked teams Toledo and Florida in Stark Vegas.
Meanwhile, Texas has racked up 51 or more points in 3 of 4 games this season, while cashing high on the total in 3 in a row.
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