Ohio State will be a high-value target for Wisconsin

The good news and bad news for Wisconsin basketball

So, there is some good news and bad news for Wisconsin basketball. You want the bad news first, right? I’ll give it to you: The Badgers would have preferred to play the Ohio State Buckeyes later in the season in Columbus. Friday, January 3 is too early. The Badgers will not have had a lot of time to work with Micah Potter and develop the rhythm they need to have the best possible chance to win on the Buckeyes’ home floor.

Yes, it is true that with Potter being a relative newcomer to the 2019-2020 lineup, Ohio State and head coach Chris Holtmann won’t have as much film to review in preparation for Wisconsin. Greg Gard is in a position to try some new combinations and catch the Buckeyes off balance. That much is true. However, it remains that Wisconsin would like more time to work with Potter and develop the blended harmony (in road games) this team needs to become its best version this season. The Ohio State game is coming earlier than desired, under the circumstances.

Okay, that’s the bad news.

The good news: If Wisconsin can beat the Buckeyes, the Badgers would instantly transform their resume from NIT to the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. No, we’re not going to talk bracketology, but we can take a bird’s-eye view of the larger landscape of college basketball. This sport is so uncertain right now — with No. 1 teams losing left and right, and North Carolina being a bubble team — that a lot of schools have not solidified their positions as near-lock NCAA teams. If Wisconsin picks off Ohio State in early January, such a win would immediately reset the Badgers’ season.

So, they’re not likely to win this game, but if they DO, they’re in a vastly better place. That is the reality after Ohio State shrugged off its loss to Minnesota with a victory over Kentucky on Saturday in Las Vegas. It is true that Kentucky isn’t particularly good right now, but after the Wildcats lost to Utah on Wednesday, everyone knew they would give Ohio State their best shot. In terms of effort, they did.

The Buckeyes handled everything which came their way. Moreover, their big eraser in the middle, Kaleb Wesson, fouled out with nearly 3:30 left in regulation. They still fended off Big Blue. How big is the hype surrounding Ohio State? Even after a week in which OSU lost, prominent commentators floated the idea that the Buckeyes could be No. 1:

The Wisconsin Badgers are not in a great position right now, to be sure. Yet, if they can improve quickly enough to beat Ohio State in their first game of the 2020s, their 2019-2020 season could change dramatically for the better.

10 for 20: Ohio State basketball

Ohio State basketball in the 2020s

When looking at the collection of Big Ten basketball coaches, Archie Miller has received a lot of hype but has done nothing to justify it. Fred Hoiberg has proved that he can consistently win at a Power Five program, so he isn’t really a hyped coach so much as a proven coach. Mark Turgeon is trying to break through and deliver a Gary Williams-type masterpiece at Maryland, but he hasn’t gotten there yet. Brad Underwood is trying to change the equation at Illinois. Juwan Howard has returned to Michigan to coach at the school he once played for. If we aren’t talking about the legendary Tom Izzo — whose place in college basketball history is secure — one sees a lot of Big Ten coaches with considerable potential, but none of them are rock stars.

If one non-Izzo coach in the Big Ten has a good chance to become The Next Great Coach in the 2020s, many would say it is Chris Holtmann at Ohio State. This forms the question facing the Buckeyes as the new decade of Big Ten basketball begins: How great will Chris Holtmann become?

Butler was led to the heights of college basketball by Brad Stevens, and we know how good a coach he was in the collegiate game. Brandon Miller replaced Stevens at Butler and allowed the program to slip, albeit for only one season. Miller abruptly decided to step down one month before the start of the 2014-2015 season for health reasons. Butler didn’t have time to conduct a nationwide coaching search. Holtmann took over a program with potential, but many people in college basketball doubted what he could do because he wasn’t really “chosen” for the Butler job. Circumstances thrust the job into his hands.

He could not have done any better than he actually did. He raised the program to a Sweet 16 standard and gained a higher seed (No. 4 in 2017) than Stevens ever attained at the school. Holtmann’s work at Butler, at a time when everyone knew about Butler and took its best shot at the Bulldogs, marked him as a coach to watch. His work at Ohio State has been very solid. He hasn’t had a season slip away from him in his first years on the job. He might have gotten a grace period from commentators and even some fans, but he didn’t need one. After Thad Matta ran out of gas in Columbus, missing the NCAA Tournament two straight seasons, Holtmann came in and made the Big Dance in each of his first two seasons on the job. He is almost certain to increase that streak to three straight NCAA berths in the coming months. The program has been improved and solidified under his leadership. Now the only question seems to be how high the Buckeyes can climb.

Thad Matta established a high standard at Ohio State, but as noted above, his tenure with the Buckeyes seemed to hit a wall. Matta reached two Final Fours and produced several highly-seeded teams. Holtmann seems capable of replicating those results. Will he do so? That’s a great question. Will he stick around long enough to create something dynastic in Columbus? That question doesn’t seem absurd — it speaks to Holtmann’s potential. The next decade will tell us if Holtmann can hit that high ceiling.