Nuggets Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

NBA Finals: Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Game 4 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat will host the Denver Nuggets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday at Kaseya Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Nuggets cruised to a 109-94 victory in Game 3 on Wednesday to cover as 3.5-point road favorites. The Under of 213 points hit in Game 3 and Denver has taken a 2-1 lead in the series.

In Wednesday’s 15-point win, the Nuggets got 30-point triple-doubles from C Nikola Jokic and G Jamal Murray, who became the 1st duo in NBA history to both record a 30-point triple-double in a game.

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Nuggets at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Heat +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets -3.5 (-110) | Heat +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Heat key injuries

Nuggets

Not yet submitted

Heat

None

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 108, Nuggets 105

Moneyline

Miami can’t afford to lose Game 4 and head to Denver for Game 5 down 3-1 in the series, so I’ll back the HEAT (+140) at home in Friday’s tilt. The Heat are 6-3 at home in the playoffs and they have yet to lose 2 straight home games in the postseason.

Against the spread

HEAT +3.5 (-110) is the pick if you need a little insurance and can’t bet Miami to win outright. F Jimmy Butler looked more aggressive in Game 3 and C Bam Adebayo has been fantastic in this series thus far, while the role players on the Heat will step up in a crucial home game.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 210.5 (-110).

The Under has connected in 2 of the 1st 3 games of the series as the Heat have had trouble getting consistent performances on the offensive end. That being said, Jokic and Murray are scoring at a nice clip, and it’s tough betting against Butler in a must-win setting.

The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings overall.

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NBA Finals: Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat NBA Finals Game 3 odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets head south to face the Miami Heat Wednesday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Tip from Kaseya Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Series: Tied 1-1

The Heat were too much in the 4th quarter on Sunday as they took down Denver 111-108 in Game 2. Denver played a solid game, shooting 52% from the floor and 39% from distance. However Miami went 17-for-35 (48%) from behind the 3-point line.

Denver survived an early charge from Miami and took over the game in the 2nd, going up 57-51 at half. Miami outscored them 17-5 to open the 4th and hung on for the 3-point win. Denver was 11-0 in the playoffs and 37-1 in the regular season when leading the game by double digits at any point.

Heat F Jimmy Butler had 21 points, but he’s still having to work hard for everything on the floor. PG Gabe Vincent led Miami with 23 points. Nuggets C Nikola Jokic had 41 points and 11 rebounds, and PG Jamal Murray had 18 points and 10 assists.

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Nuggets at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Heat +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-110) | Heat -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Nuggets at Heat key injuries

Nuggets

None

Heat

SG Tyler Herro (hand) – questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Nuggets 108

Moneyline

Miami’s win in Game 2 snapped a 7-game losing streak to the Nuggets, who have won 8 of 10 against them since the 2019-20 season. The Heat are 6-2 at home this postseason and were 34-17 in the regular season.

The switch to put F Kevin Love, who had 6 points and 10 boards, in the starting lineup really lit a spark. I think they have enough left in the tank to sneak by in this game. A sticking point for me, though, is Miami was up by as many as 12 in the 4th quarter, and Denver kept coming. I’d rather have the points than the so-so +120 Heat ML.

PASS.

Against the spread

If you’re on board with Miami finding a way in Game 3, the spread provides a lot of insurance but doesn’t drain too much value. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home and 13-5 in their last 18 overall. The Heat are also 5-2 in their last 7 NBA Finals games.

Take the HEAT +2.5 (-110).

Over/Under

This total has cashed an Over in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the teams. The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami and 6-1 in the last 7 overall. The Over is 6-2-1 for Denver in its last 9 road games.

Even at the naked eye, the total looks a little low. I’ll take the OVER 214.5 (-110).

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Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (39-18) and Miami Heat (32-25) meet Monday at Miami-Dade Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Nuggets covered the spread as 7-point favorites Saturday in a 119-105 win at the Charlotte Hornets. C Nikola Jokic had a triple-double with 30 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists as Denver ended its 4-game road skid. The Nuggets are 2-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last 8 games after covering in their previous contest.

The Heat covered as 1.5-point favorites Saturday with a 107-103 overtime win at the Orlando Magic. G Tyler Herro scored a game-high 23 points as Miami won its 3rd straight. The Heat are 1-5 ATS vs. the Nuggets in the last 6 meetings in Miami.

This is the 2nd meeting this season between the Nuggets and Heat. In the Dec. 30 meeting, the Nuggets covered as 4-point home favorites with a 124-119 win as the Over (224.5) connected.

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Nuggets at Heat odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Heat +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets -1.5 (-110) | Heat +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 219.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Nuggets at Heat injuries

Nuggets

F Aaron Gordon (rib) questionable
G Jamal Murray (knee) questionable

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (knee) probable
G Tyler Herro (knee) doubtful
G Kyle Lowry (knee) out
G Victor Oladipo (ankle) out
F Duncan Robinson (finger) out
F Max Strus (shoulder) probable
G Gabe Vincent (ankle) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 110, Heat 100

Moneyline

PASS.

The Nuggets (-120) should win, but there is no need to buy the 1.5 points on Denver when it should win by margin. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

BET NUGGETS -1.5 (-110).

Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. teams with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Heat have struggled at home vs. the Nuggets in recent meetings and may be due for a letdown after coming back from a double-digit 4th-quarter deficit at the Magic on Saturday.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 219.5 (-108).

The Under is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last 7 contests away from home and 3-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 5 road games vs. teams with a home winning percentage over .600. The Under has hit in 6 of Miami’s last 7 home games and is 4-1 in the Heat’s last 5 after covering in its previous contest.

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Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Denver Nuggets (9-10) travel to FTX Arena Monday to take on the Miami Heat (13-7). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

All eyes will be on this rematch following the C Nikola Jokic ejection and ensuing escalation by F Jimmy Butler coupled with the Jokic brothers’ Twitter threat.

Jokic, the league’s reigning MVP, helped demolish Miami 113-96 when the teams met Nov. 8.

The Nuggets have been relatively disappointing, ranking 20th in the NBA in net rating (minus-1.1). Denver has the league’s second-worst ATS record at 7-12.

The Heat are 13-7 ATS, the fourth-best in the league and also have the fourth-best defensive rating and fourth-best net rating (plus-6.1). Miami is currently second in the Eastern Conference.

Nuggets at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:25 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nuggets +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Heat -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +7.5 (-122) | Heat -7.5 (-102)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Nuggets at Heat key injuries

Nuggets

C Nikola Jokic (wrist) questionable
G Jamal Murray (knee) out
F Michael Porter Jr. (back) out

Home

F Jimmy Butler (tail bone) questionable
G Tyler Herro (body soreness) questionable
G Victor Oladipo (knee) out
F Markieff Morris (neck) out

Nuggets at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 112, Nuggets 101

Money line

PASS on the money line. The Nuggets were in the Western Conference Semifinals a year ago and have talent at all levels, making Miami’s -340 too risky, especially for a regular-season game.

Denver could be without Jokic and will be without Murray and Porter Jr., and regardless, the Heat will be ready and likely view this as a revenge game which makes the +260 on Denver a bad value as well.

Against the spread

BET on the HEAT -7.5 (-102) as they’ve been the far better team this season. It also seems like Herro and Butler are more likely to play than Jokic.

With two of Denver’s best three players out, if Jokic sits, the Nuggets will be in big trouble. The Heat already have the fourth-best defensive rating and they thrive off offensive rebounds as well.

While Denver should be able to limit those (6th best defensive rebounding rate), it shouldn’t matter as Miami ranks sixth in true shooting rate. Center Bam Adebayo will be the real difference-maker and should feast if Jokic misses.

The All-NBA defender should also limit the MVP if Jokic does play. Miami has the greater upside regardless and should want to put a beating on Jokic and the Nuggets after their first meeting.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the OVER 208.5 (-112) as the better side.

Denver has still hit 105 points twice despite Jokic not playing in its last four games, and it’s hit triple digits three times. Their opponents in those four games haven’t scored fewer than 114 points. Jokic is key on both ends of the court.

Denver is the 15th worst defensive team in the NBA and they drop to 28th on the road. I expect Miami to be able to put up points.

Considering Denver’s continued offensive competence and lacking defensive competence without Jokic, I’d play the Over here. If the elite big man suits up the Over is still the better play.

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