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The Pitt Panthers (1-2) welcome the No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels (3-0) to Acrisure Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET (ACCN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Pitt odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
North Carolina is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) this season, and it is coming off a 31-13 win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers in which it covered as a 7-point favorite. The Tar Heels are led by QB Drake Maye, who has 891 passing yards through 3 games and 4 TDs. He also has 4 INTs. North Carolina is No. 17 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
The Panthers opened the season with a 45-7 win over the Wofford Terriers but have lost 2 straight games, dropping Week 2 to the Cincinnati Bearcats 27-21 and Week 3 to the West Virginia Mountaineers 17-6. Pittsburgh is 0-2-1 ATS this season. It is led by QB Phil Jurkovec, who has 474 passing yards, 4 TDs and 3 INTs on the season.
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North Carolina at Pitt odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:17 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Pitt +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina -7.5 (-105) | Pitt +7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 50.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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North Carolina at Pitt picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 31, Pitt 17
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s nothing to see here.
A top-25 side going into a difficult environment is not worth a play at -300. Similarly, Pitt has lost to 2 teams, both of which are worse than UNC, and likely won’t win. Also, not worth a play at +240.
Against the spread
BET NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 (-105).
UNC is coming off a big-time win over Minnesota in which it looked like the preseason team everyone thought it would be. North Carolina rolled the Golden Gophers, beating them by 18 despite being just a 7-point favorite.
UNC has a drastic advantage at QB with Maye. Jurkovec has just a 46.7% completion rate and will struggle against the Tar Heels. The Panthers lost by 6 to Cincinnati in Week 2 despite being 6.5-point favorites. They aren’t worth backing here, and the quarterback difference makes the Tar Heels a strong play.
UNC is also 2-1 ATS while Pitt is 0-2-1 ATS, so the Tar Heels have been better than books have expected while the Panthers have struggled. Take NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 (-105).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 50.5 (-115).
The Tar Heels gave up 34 points to App State in Week 2, but other than that, they have allowed just 15 points per game in the other 2 weeks. They are 1-2 O/U.
Given Jurkovec’s accuracy issues, they may be able to limit the Panthers at home. The Tar Heels have also topped 31 just once this season while Pitt has held its opponent to 17 or fewer in 2 of 3 games.
Expect a sloppy game on Saturday and take UNDER 50.5 (-115).
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