Tag: North Carolina Florida State odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

North Carolina at Florida State odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s North Carolina at Florida State odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (18-11, 10-8 ACC) and Florida State Seminoles (9-20, 7-11) tangle Monday in Tallahassee. Tip from Donald L. Tucker Center is at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Florida State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

North Carolina defeated Virginia 71-63 Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite, winning back-to-back games for the first time since Jan. 21-24. UNC had struggled on defense in going 1-5 from Feb. 1-19, but the Tar Heels have held opposing shooters to a 39.7% mark over the last 2 games.

The Seminoles won 85-54 at Miami Saturday but are just 2-7 across their last 9 games. The FSU defense has also had trouble of late: the ‘Noles have yielded a 45% shooting mark or higher in 8 of those 9 games.

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North Carolina at Florida State odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: North Carolina -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Florida State +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
  • Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina -7.5 (+100) | Florida State +7.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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North Carolina at Florida State picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 77, Florida State 71

Moneyline

Too much juice here. PASS.

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Against the spread

UNC is 6-1-2 ATS across the last 9 meetings in this series.

Figure the Tar Heels as being due for some positive shooting regression. FSU is just reeling, especially defensively. UNC is the lean here but only an actionable one -6 or maybe -6.5

STEER CLEAR.

Over/Under

The Under has gone 5-2 in this series since 2018. The Under is 6-1 in the Tar Heels’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.

Both teams have top-100 pace numbers, but UNC is coming off a couple of its slower games in some time. The Tar Heels figure to get to the line quite a bit and get a fair number of 2nd-chance buckets. But overall, the scoring spiral factors are not out of control in matching up the analytics on each side.

The margin here is small, though: consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 151.5 (-110).

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North Carolina at Florida State odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s North Carolina Tar Heels at Florida State Seminoles sports betting odds and lines, with college basketball betting picks, tips and predictions.

The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-4 overall, 3-2 ACC) visit the Florida State Seminoles (6-2, 2-1) for a conference battle Saturday at the Donald L. Tucker Center. The tip-off is set for noon ET. Below, we analyze the North Carolina-Florida State college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

North Carolina at Florida State: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: North Carolina +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Florida State -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: North Carolina +4.5 (-115) | Florida State -4.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

North Carolina at Florida State: Three things to know

  1. After losing its first two games in ACC play, North Carolina has rattled off three straight wins (all against conference foes) including an 81-75 victory over Syracuse Tuesday as a 5-point home favorite. It was the Tar Heels’ first cover in five games and they are just 4-7-1 ATS this season. North Carolina’s strength is in rebounding as the Tar Heels have a healthy plus-13.3-rebound per game margin and gobble up the second-most rebounds per game in the nation.
  2. This will be only Florida State’s second game in the new year since the program was on a two-week hiatus after its scheduled games with Duke and Pittsburgh were postponed because of COVID-19 issues. The Seminoles crushed NC State 105-73 as 4-point home favorites Wednesday.
  3. The Seminoles won their only meeting with the Tar Heels last season 65-59 but failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites and are just 1-1-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. North Carolina.

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North Carolina at Florida State: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

North Carolina 66, Florida State 63

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE with a lean on North Carolina (+155) since I’ll be taking the Tar Heels plus points. North Carolina isn’t juicy enough to bet and I’d prefer to use my bankroll for this game in the following betting markets.

Against the spread (ATS)

Florida State’s second-leading scorer and leading assist man freshman PG Scottie Barnes exited the Seminoles’ last game after rolling his ankle and his status is in question heading into Saturday’s game. If Barnes cannot play, this would be a great spot to take North Carolina as an underdog.

Florida State wasn’t able to cover in last season’s meeting despite having two players that were drafted in the lottery of the 2020 NBA Draft. Given Barnes’ questionable status and the Tar Heels’ recent dominance over the Seminoles, NORTH CAROLINA +4.5 (-115) is the right play.

Over/Under (O/U)

North Carolina is mediocre on both ends of the court, but its defense should be able to get stops if Barnes is compromised or not available. Also, Florida State plays at the 215th-fastest pace, which is a tempo North Carolina might like to play in this game given its offensive struggles.

Furthermore, there was a lot more firepower in last season’s meeting but that still went Under. In fact, the previous three North Carolina-Florida State games have gone Under the total.

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