The North Carolina Tar Heels (18-11, 10-8 ACC) and Florida State Seminoles (9-20, 7-11) tangle Monday in Tallahassee. Tip from Donald L. Tucker Center is at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the North Carolina vs. Florida State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
North Carolina defeated Virginia 71-63 Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite, winning back-to-back games for the first time since Jan. 21-24. UNC had struggled on defense in going 1-5 from Feb. 1-19, but the Tar Heels have held opposing shooters to a 39.7% mark over the last 2 games.
The Seminoles won 85-54 at Miami Saturday but are just 2-7 across their last 9 games. The FSU defense has also had trouble of late: the ‘Noles have yielded a 45% shooting mark or higher in 8 of those 9 games.
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North Carolina at Florida State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: North Carolina -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Florida State +240 (bet $100 to win $240)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina -7.5 (+100) | Florida State +7.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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North Carolina at Florida State picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 77, Florida State 71
Moneyline
Too much juice here. PASS.
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Against the spread
UNC is 6-1-2 ATS across the last 9 meetings in this series.
Figure the Tar Heels as being due for some positive shooting regression. FSU is just reeling, especially defensively. UNC is the lean here but only an actionable one -6 or maybe -6.5
STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
The Under has gone 5-2 in this series since 2018. The Under is 6-1 in the Tar Heels’ last 7 games following a straight-up win.
Both teams have top-100 pace numbers, but UNC is coming off a couple of its slower games in some time. The Tar Heels figure to get to the line quite a bit and get a fair number of 2nd-chance buckets. But overall, the scoring spiral factors are not out of control in matching up the analytics on each side.
The margin here is small, though: consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 151.5 (-110).
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