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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
This week we make our picks on a group of underachievers – stars who haven’t blown up as expected this year along with guys who have been career underachievers for the most part.
The Week 4 picks include a pair of draft-inflated quarterbacks fighting for their NFL lives as starters, two of the top three running backs in most fantasy drafts, and a sneaky wide receiver pick who has consistently blown up against his Week 4 opponent.
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Our five favorite wagers to make in Week 4.
The NFL apologizes for those forced to endure the “Meh!” trifecta of the Green Bay Packers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos-San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants in stand-alone games on national TV. It taught us that every game can be different but have a similar theme – a combination of playmaking defense and offensive ineptitude.
But as we get deeper into a season, we see the strengths and weaknesses (often injury-related) of teams that lets us hone in more on games to bet on. This week, we’re taking a moneyline pick for some return on investment, betting on a team that has to win, two games that the point spreads are too high, and another that’s too low.
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Make these Week 4 prop bets and enjoy a reward.
We’ve turned the page on September and we’re starting to see the style NFL offense and defenses are sporting in 2021. This week’s game will take in several factors, including a slow start for a superstar player, a bell cow running back who will be asked to do a lot, games in primetime, and what may be the most watched homecoming of all time.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook (updated Friday, Oct. 1, at 9:10 p.m. ET) … If you’re in CO or NJ, place all of your legal, online sports wagers with Tipico Sportsbook.
Last year, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and yards. This year, he’s second in receptions and third and in yards … on his team! When Diggs isn’t getting deep shots, he tends to get salty and grouse in the locker room. The Bills are likely to blow out the Texans, but Diggs hasn’t hit 70 yards in a game yet this season. His receiving yards Over/Under (83.5 yards at -114 for both) is high given his previous production this season. But, expect to see a couple of bombs come his way and a handful of crossing routes that get him Over for the first time all season. Take the Over.
There is no questioning that Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is the most dominant running back in the league in terms of carries and yards. It might appear at first look that, without both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, Henry’s gaudy rushing Over/Under (117.5 yards at-114 for both) seems way too high, because the Jets will stack eight in the box. Henry and the Titans are used to that and won’t be shy about running Henry 30 times, if necessary. He only needs to break a couple of those to hit the point. Take the Over.
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has a modest rushing Over/Under (32.5 yards at -110 Over, -118 Under) and there’s a reason for it. In four starts, he has never hit that number against the Los Angeles Rams. In fact, in four starts, he has rushed 13 times for just 46 yards total. The Los Angeles defense knows how to defend Murray and keep him behind the line of scrimmage and not hurting it with his legs. The Cardinals have practically taken the run away from Murray in their playcalling. This would be an absurd number, but against the Rams, it’s there for a reason. Take the Under.
I learned years ago that you bet against Tom Brady at your own peril. He has beaten every team in the NFL with the exception of one – his former Patriots team. He has a pretty stiff passing yards Over/Under (305.5 at -114 for both the Over and Under). While the feeling is that Bill Belichick is going to try to disguise looks to confuse Brady, you can bet the Buccaneers know the importance of this game to the psyche of Brady and the coaching staff will let him cut loose. It’s a high number, but one that he can hit barring a complete blowout – and even then he might. Take the Over.
There are some bets that you come to the conclusion they met your number. Los Angeles Chargers receiver Keenan Allen has a high receptions Over/Under (6.5 at -156 Over, +120 Under). To hit the Over, he needs to catch seven passes, which isn’t easy for any receiver. He hasn’t hit seven catches in two of his last three and three of his last five games against the Las Vegas Raiders. There’s no questioning Allen is capable of catching seven passes – he’s caught or more twice already this season. But that isn’t a slam dunk as he may be playing through an ankle injury, so getting a sweet payout for the Under is hard to pass up at +120. Take the Under.
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