Tag: NFL upsets

NFL Best Bets: Three best underdog locks for Week 17

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 17 where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds.

We’ve reached the finish line of the 2019 NFL campaign, well, at least for the regular season.

Among the things we’ve learned is that it was quite the year to have a column devoted to underdogs. Through Week 16, NFL point spread dogs were 125-107-8 (.539) against the number, with road underdogs proving particularly profitable, covering at a .587 clip (84-69-6).

We’ve managed to do even better than that in this space with a 29-19 (.604) season mark against the spread after going 1-2 in Week 16. In suffering our first losing week since mid-November, we came up short with the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals but easily covered with the 9.5-point road underdog Arizona Cardinals winning by two touchdowns (27-13) in Seattle.

Betting Week 17 is always extra tricky with playoff qualifiers resting starters and other long-since eliminated teams paying more attention to offseason vacation plans instead of their final-week game plans.

So that’s the minefield we must navigate as we select our final three underdogs of the 2019 regular season, utilizing the Friday lines from BetMGM.

Here goes …

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Photo Credit: Robert Hanashiro – USA TODAY Sports

While the host Ravens (13-2) have already put the wraps on the AFC’s No. 1  playoff seed – the first in their history – this is a must-win for the visiting Steelers, who at 8-7 are battling for the conference’s sixth and final wild-card spot.

And, sure, the Ravens will be going with their back-up quarterback, Robert Griffin III, but keep in mind the Steelers will once again be starting their No. 3 QB in Devlin “Duck” Hodges. That hasn’t been pretty of late with Hodges throwing six interceptions and only one touchdown pass over his last two games – both Pittsburgh losses.

The Steelers are 0-5 against postseason qualifiers this season, including a 26-23 overtime home loss to Lamar Jackson and these Ravens in Week 5, and reserves or not Sunday, we’re banking on Baltimore to complete the season sweep in a defensive tussle.

Houston Texans (+4.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Photo Credit: Kim Klement – USA TODAY Sports

The AFC South-champion Texans’ only shot at improving their playoff seeding is overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 3 slot, but the oddsmakers are clearly counting on a KC win earlier in the day against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers and then the disinterested Texans pulling back and playing out the string against the Titans.

That would be the only reason why Tennessee is a 4.5-point road favorite against the team that just won 24-21 in Nashville two weeks ago en route to its fourth AFC South title in the last five seasons.

The 8-7 Titans, of course, have much more to play for as they’re battling the aforementioned Steelers and Oakland Raiders for their playoff lives. But we’re not aware of any Houston plans to rest starters, and if all appears to be even, personnel-wise, we’ll go with the host Texans and their 6-2 record as an underdog this season to keep it close and get the cover.

Washington Redskins (+10.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Photo Credit: Brad Mills – USA TODAY Sports

Even after four losses in their last five games, the 7-8 Cowboys still can win the NFC East with a victory in this one and a loss by the 8-7 Philadelphia Eagles, who are playing at the same time against the New York Giants in New Jersey.

Unless the Cowboys and battered QB Dak Prescott get wind the Giants have jumped out to an early three-touchdown lead, they’re more likely to go through the motions in the finale of a lost season while playing for a coach who will be shown the door by Black Monday at the latest.

The 3-12 Redskins, meanwhile, saw coach Jay Gruden fired in early October but have continued to show some fight, covering in five of nine games since, including a 4-1 ATS mark as double-digit underdogs, as they are here.

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NFL Best Bets: Three best underdog locks for Week 16

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 16 where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds.

As the NFL stretch run to the playoffs speeds along, it’s been a profitable stretch here in Underdog Corner.

Last week’s 2-1 showing was our fourth straight winning week as the Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys won outright as slight underdogs while the Chicago Bears fell short of covering as 4.5-point dogs on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers.

This 9-3 run since Week 12 has guaranteed us a winning record on the season as we enter the final two weeks at a nice and fruitful 28-17.

It’s now time to tackle a Week 16 card that offers some intriguing underdog opportunities as we scan over Thursday’s morning’s point spreads at BetMGM.

Here are this week’s trio of selections …

Tennesee Titans (+2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports

These two teams have much to play for as they meet Sunday in an intriguing interconference clash in the Music City.

With the AFC South title essentially a longshot following last week’s home loss to the Houston Texans, the Titans are battling the Pittsburgh Steelers for the final AFC wild-card spot with both sitting at 8-6.

The Saints, meanwhile, have already put the wraps on a third straight NFC South crown, and as one of four NFC teams at 11-3, they now have their sights on home-field advantage in the playoffs.

The Saints are riding the high of QB Drew Brees’ record-setting performance in their most dominant win (34-7 over the visiting Indianapolis Colts) of the season Monday night, but that makes them a perfect letdown candidate against a hungry and talented Titans team even more in need of a victory Sunday in its home finale.

Look for QB Ryan Tannehill and the Titans to triumph in a tight one.

Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

Photo Credit: Joe Maiorana – USA TODAY Sports

We go from Saints-Titans to the ugliest matchup of the week: The 3-11 Dolphins hosting the 1-13 Bengals.

It, of course, better serves each team to lose Sunday as the Joe Burrow Derby is only two lengths from the finish line, but keep in mind the one-win visitors enter the contest with a two-game cushion over the rest of the field.

Despite owning the league’s two worst point differentials at a combined minus-342, these teams have played somewhat respectable of late, but we’ll give the edge to the better running game (Joe Mixon has been on a tear of late) and the better defense in Cincy.

Arizona Cardinals (+9.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – USA TODAY Sports

In the actual standings, it’s no contest with 11-3 Seattle sitting a full 6.5 games ahead of 4-9-1 Arizona in the NFC West.

But in the against-the-spread world, the Cards actually own the superior record at 8-5-1 to the Seahawks’ 7-6-1 – and that’s despite Seattle’s 27-10 win and cover in the desert back in Week 4.

Sunday’s game in the Pacific Northwest means much more to the home squad with the Seahawks trying to hold off the 11-3 San Francisco 49ers for the division title. Those two heavyweights meet Week 17 in this same stadium, and that lookahead temptation is another reason why we foresee Russell Wilson and the Seahawks doing just enough to win Sunday but not enough to cover against Kyler Murray and the feisty Cards.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Best Bets: Three best underdog locks for Week 15

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 15 where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds

Another big week for underdogs (10-6 against the mid-week point spreads) meant another strong week here as we notched our third straight winning weekend with a 3-0 mark.

As expected, one of my three Week 14 underdog selections won outright with the host Los Angeles Rams beating the favored Seattle Seahawks 28-12 on Sunday night, despite being 2.5-point home ‘dogs midweek.

But we saw TWO of our underdogs win straight up as rookie quarterback Drew Lock and the Denver Broncos dominated the host Houston Texans (7.5-point favorites) in a shocking 38-24 win.

The third of our three picks, the 12.5 -point underdog Washington Redskins, hung tough as expected in a 20-15 road loss on the frozen tundra of Green Bay.

That all ups our season record here to a nice, shiny and – best of all – profitable 26-16.

Now we move on to a Week 15 slate that doesn’t appear as promising at first (or even fourth) glance, looking like a rare 2019 week of favorites. Regardless, we’ve found three ‘dogs to back, utilizing, as usual, Wednesday’s posted point spreads at BetMGM.com.

Here goes …

Chicago Bears (+4½) at Packers

Photo Credit: Benny Sieu – USA TODAY Sports

Don’t look now but Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears have rebounded from a 3-5 start to win four of their last five and inch onto the fringe of the crowded NFC playoff chase.

The 7-6 Bears are 4-9 against the spread, but seven of those losses have come as favorites. Now they’re getting the third-most points they’ve received all season.

The Pack? They’ve won two straight since coming out on the wrong side of a 37-8 beatdown against the 49ers in Week 12 and, at 10-3, are fighting for the NFC North title and a possible first-round postseason bye.

Green Bay, though, is 4-3 ATS as a home favorite this season. And despite the Packers’ 10-3 win in Chicago in the season opener, Trubisky & Co. should be able to keep the rematch within the number, even if they wind up falling short in the latest installment of this storied rivalry.

Dallas Cowboys (+1½) vs. L.A. Rams

Photo Credit: Quinn Harris – USA TODAY Sports

Yeah, we’re going against all the momentum and trends on both ends and side with embattled coach Jason Garrett and the ‘Boys here.

Dallas has dropped three straight, four of five and seven of 10 overall since a 3-0 start, but the club is still somehow tied for the NFC (L)East lead.

It goes against all logic to take that resume over that of the suddenly surging Rams, who have won three of four to move to 8-5 and into the wild-card hunt, but sometimes the ugly ‘dog is the right ‘dog, and we’ll bank on the Cowboys avoiding a third straight home loss.

Buffalo Bills (+2½) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Photo Credit: Rich Barnes – USA TODAY Sports

The 8-5 Steelers are a truly impressive 7-1 since a Week 5 overtime home loss to the Ravens dropped them to 1-4, and they’ve done so with the backup-QB combo of Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph at the helm.

Still, only one of Pittsburgh’s eight wins – a 17-12 Week 10 triumph over the visiting Rams – has come against a team currently sporting a winning record.

The 9-4 Bills own a rather similar resume with only one of their nine wins – a Week 5 victory over the then-Marcus Mariota-quarterbacked Tennessee Titans – coming against a team currently sitting above .500.

But in a Sunday night matchup of AFC wild-card front-runners possessing strong defenses, we’ll take the better QB (Josh Allen) and the points on the road in a mild upset.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Best Bets: Three best underdog locks for Week 14

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 14 where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds

One of our three picks from a 2-1 Week 13 provided a snapshot of getting the best of the line.

We jumped on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a week ago as 1.5-point underdogs against the host Jacksonville Jaguars. We weren’t alone as the bets were pouring in on the Bucs, and by the time kickoff rolled around Sunday, Tampa Bay was a field-goal favorite.

It didn’t matter in the end as the Bucs won and covered easily by a 28-11 score. By jumping in ahead on the right side of a massive 4.5-point line swing – which moved, mind you, without the influence of a key injury – is nothing short of vital when betting the ultra-tight NFL.

Selecting the Bucs and the Tennessee Titans, another outright underdog road winner last week, while falling short with the Minnesota Vikings in a Monday night shootout in Seattle, upped our season record to 23-16 through 13 weeks.

Now we tackle the Week 14 card, looking for a third straight winning week. As usual, we’re looking at Wednesday’s posted point spreads from BetMGM. Here goes …

Washington Redskins (+12.5) at Green Bay Packers

Photo Credit: Jeremy Brevard – USA TODAY Sports

We’ll start with a straight formula, by-the-numbers play more than anything else as we note double-digit favorites have won 19 of 22 games outright this season but are only 10-12 against the mid-week spreads, including 1-4 over the last month.

Improving rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins and Washington have won two straight after a 1-9 start while Green Bay is coming off a get-right, 31-13 rout of the host New York Giants and just may be looking ahead a little to a crucial closing three-game stretch against NFC North foes.

We’re definitely not expecting Aaron Rodgers and Co. to slip up on the frozen tundra, but we’ll go with the D.C. visitors to somehow come up with a cover.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Houston Texans

Photo Credit: Ron Chenoy – USA TODAY Sports

Yeah, we know we’re playing with fire, going with another rookie quarterback on the road in the Broncos’ Drew Lock in only his second career start, but this is more a play against the Texans than anything else.

Wizard QB Deshaun Watson and Houston are coming off a massive, 28-22 upset win over the nemesis New England Patriots Sunday night, and it’s easy to see how the focus probably won’t be as sharp facing a visiting 4-8 Denver squad.

The numbers make our case as the Texans are only 1-4 ATS as favorites (as opposed to 5-2 as underdogs) this season while the usually-plucky Broncos are 6-3 as underdogs and 7-5 ATS overall, including 6-2 over their last eight outings.

That all makes the safe bet a narrow Houston win.

L.A. Rams (+2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian – USA TODAY Sports

The NFC West-leading Seahawks are an impressive 6-0 on the road this season while the Rams have struggled at home, winning only two of five games in L.A. so far.

But coach Sean McVay is 3-2 against the Seahawks since taking the Rams’ reins in 2017, and one of the losses was a crushing 30-29 road defeat in Week 5 as PK Greg Zuerlein‘s 44-yard potential game-winning field-goal attempt sailed right with 11 seconds remaining.

Beating the Rams usually comes down to pressuring and flustering QB Jared Goff, but Seattle ranks in the league’s bottom quarter in sack percentage and quarterback hits while surrendering the fourth-most passing yards per game at 269.3.

Look for the 7-5 Rams to win outright in what could turn into a shootout Sunday night and boost their wild-card hopes.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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NFL Best Bets: Three underdog locks for Week 12

Our weekly NFL underdog betting staple continues into Week 12 where Ken Pomponio features three teams likely to upset their underdog odds

Thanksgiving is only a week away and we’re quickly cutting to the chase in the 2019 NFL season.

Believe it or not, every team will have only five games remaining after this weekend, and each one takes on added significance with postseason berths and draft positioning on the line. We will see if that means more favorites come through in the win column – and, for our purposes, against the point spread – as the stakes grow higher.

Last week, favorites posted a season-best-matching 9-5 mark against the mid-week lines, and we were able to forecast only one (the Arizona Cardinals) of the five covering underdogs, moving our season record to 19-14.

The Week 12 pickings look slim at the outset, but come up with three dogs we must, utilizing Wednesday’s point spreads from BetMGM.

Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at Houston Texans

(Photo Credit: Thomas J. Russo – USA TODAY Sports)

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett was back Sunday, and so was the Colts’ mojo as they snapped out of a two-game skid with a 33-13 rout of the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. This week, Brissett looks like he may get back his top weapon in wideout T.Y. Hilton.

The Texans, meanwhile, came off their Week 10 bye and were summarily smashed by Lamar Jackson and the red-hot Baltimore Ravens 41-7 on the road. The rout highlighted the Texans’ growing defensive deficiencies as they’ve surrendered 24 or more points in five of their last six outings.

That includes a 30-23 road loss to Brissett and the Colts in Week 7 – Indy’s fifth win in the last six series meetings, including a 21-7 road playoff triumph last January in the Wild Card Round.

Also factor in the success of Thursday night underdogs and their 8-3 record against the spread this season, and there is ample reason to back the visiting Colts Thursday night.

Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) at New England Patriots

(Photo Credit: Raj Mehta – USA TODAY Sports)

Yep, we’re playing with fire again, siding against the Patriots who are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games dating back to Week 17 of last season.

The New England defense is allowing a league-low 10.8 points per game but has famously feasted largely on a group of bottom-feeder teams and injury-addled offenses.

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are anything but, ranking fourth in the league with an average of 28.6 points per game and have the requisite run-pass balance to pose a serious challenge.

Overshadowed by a dominant defense, Tom Brady and his offense simply haven’t been their usual potent selves and have managed only five offensive TDs over the last three games.

The Cowboys may not pull off the outright upset in Foxborough, but they have more than enough to make this Sunday afternoon national showcase game a close one.

Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

(Photo Credit: Cary Edmondson – USA TODAY Sports)

After bouncing back from their first loss of the season, the Niners are tied with the Pats for the league’s best record at 9-1.

But whether it’s been a rash of key injuries or the up-and-down play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers have covered only once in their last five outings and are 5-4-1 overall ATS on the season.

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, meanwhile, are only one game behind the Niners at 8-2 and have been at their best in their biggest games, beating the division-rival Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings, and winning on the road in Dallas and against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Now comes their biggest test yet – a prime-time NFC playoff-seeding showdown in San Francisco – and we give Rodgers and Co. more than a puncher’s chance to not only cover but come away with the outright road upset.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services.  Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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