We’ve reached the finish line of the 2019 NFL campaign, well, at least for the regular season.
Among the things we’ve learned is that it was quite the year to have a column devoted to underdogs. Through Week 16, NFL point spread dogs were 125-107-8 (.539) against the number, with road underdogs proving particularly profitable, covering at a .587 clip (84-69-6).
We’ve managed to do even better than that in this space with a 29-19 (.604) season mark against the spread after going 1-2 in Week 16. In suffering our first losing week since mid-November, we came up short with the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals but easily covered with the 9.5-point road underdog Arizona Cardinals winning by two touchdowns (27-13) in Seattle.
Betting Week 17 is always extra tricky with playoff qualifiers resting starters and other long-since eliminated teams paying more attention to offseason vacation plans instead of their final-week game plans.
So that’s the minefield we must navigate as we select our final three underdogs of the 2019 regular season, utilizing the Friday lines from BetMGM.
Here goes …
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
While the host Ravens (13-2) have already put the wraps on the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed – the first in their history – this is a must-win for the visiting Steelers, who at 8-7 are battling for the conference’s sixth and final wild-card spot.
And, sure, the Ravens will be going with their back-up quarterback, Robert Griffin III, but keep in mind the Steelers will once again be starting their No. 3 QB in Devlin “Duck” Hodges. That hasn’t been pretty of late with Hodges throwing six interceptions and only one touchdown pass over his last two games – both Pittsburgh losses.
The Steelers are 0-5 against postseason qualifiers this season, including a 26-23 overtime home loss to Lamar Jackson and these Ravens in Week 5, and reserves or not Sunday, we’re banking on Baltimore to complete the season sweep in a defensive tussle.
Houston Texans (+4.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
The AFC South-champion Texans’ only shot at improving their playoff seeding is overtaking the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 3 slot, but the oddsmakers are clearly counting on a KC win earlier in the day against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers and then the disinterested Texans pulling back and playing out the string against the Titans.
That would be the only reason why Tennessee is a 4.5-point road favorite against the team that just won 24-21 in Nashville two weeks ago en route to its fourth AFC South title in the last five seasons.
The 8-7 Titans, of course, have much more to play for as they’re battling the aforementioned Steelers and Oakland Raiders for their playoff lives. But we’re not aware of any Houston plans to rest starters, and if all appears to be even, personnel-wise, we’ll go with the host Texans and their 6-2 record as an underdog this season to keep it close and get the cover.
Washington Redskins (+10.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Even after four losses in their last five games, the 7-8 Cowboys still can win the NFC East with a victory in this one and a loss by the 8-7 Philadelphia Eagles, who are playing at the same time against the New York Giants in New Jersey.
Unless the Cowboys and battered QB Dak Prescott get wind the Giants have jumped out to an early three-touchdown lead, they’re more likely to go through the motions in the finale of a lost season while playing for a coach who will be shown the door by Black Monday at the latest.
The 3-12 Redskins, meanwhile, saw coach Jay Gruden fired in early October but have continued to show some fight, covering in five of nine games since, including a 4-1 ATS mark as double-digit underdogs, as they are here.
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