Tag: nfl stats

Detroit Lions vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game recap: Everything we know

Now that it’s over, here’s everything we know in the immediate aftermath of the tie between the Lions and Steelers

It can no longer be said of the 2021 Detroit Lions that they have lost every game. No, they still haven’t won a game, but coach Dan Campbell and the Lions managed to avoid a loss in a 16-16 tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10.

The neutral outcome ended a bitterly underwhelming display of offensive football from the two teams. The dreary, rainy weather and atrocious condition of the overused Heinz Field turf did not help, but bad quarterback play and ponderous play-calling from both teams were far more culpable.

Now that it’s over, here’s everything we know in the immediate aftermath of the tie.

Detroit’s Jared Goff is in a category by himself at the bottom of QB efficiency through Week 9

Goff is well below every other QB in EPA per play, which factors the defense and receivers into the formula

It’s been pretty obvious to anyone who has watched the Detroit Lions over the first nine weeks of the 2021 NFL season that the passing offense has not been good. Thanks to the data miners at rbsdm stats, there is graphic representation of just how inefficient the Lions passing offense–specifically quarterback Jared Goff–has been over the first half of the season.

In the graph below, which sorts quarterback efficiency for QBs with at least 200 plays, Goff is in a quadrant almost all to himself at the very bottom.

 

The graph measures expected points added per play against completion percentage above expectation per play. Garbage time, defined as a win probability outside the window of 10 to 90 percent, is filtered out. The methodology explaining EPA:

This is done by calculating “Expected Points” for every down. Through the use of historical data, “Expected Points” are calculated for any given play based on down, distance, and field position. Then, expected points is contrasted against the actual result of each play in order to determine the expected points added on the play.

And the completion percentage above expectation, which does indeed factor in the defense, the game and throw situation and the receivers in play,

This stat measures a QB’s performance on any given throw relative to the difficulty of that throw. Expected completion percentage is determined by air yards, target distance from closest defender and sideline, QB distance from closest pass rusher, speed at time of the release (throwing on the run), and time to throw the ball.

Goff is near the average in completion percentage versus expectation, but the EPA figure is three full lines of demarcation lower than the next-worst, Carolina’s Sam Darnold, who has been benched on multiple occasions thus far.

One big reason for Goff’s lowly status is his air yards per attempt. Goff currently sits at 5.7. That’s almost a full yard below Kirk Cousins of the Vikings, who is the next in line above Goff.

Lions red zone woes must improve for Detroit to win games

Improving the lousy performances in both red zones will help Dan Campbell’s Lions get some victories

The Detroit Lions have been close to winning several games through the first seven weeks of the 2021 NFL season, but they’ve failed to notch that initial win. One of the big reasons why is Detroit’s lack of success at converting red zone offensive possessions into touchdowns.

Through Week 7, the Lions rank 30th in converting red zone possessions into touchdowns. Just 47.6 of Detroit’s offensive incursions into the enemy red zone have resulted in touchdowns, better than only the Colts (46.2%) and Giants (45%). The 0-for-5 performance in SoFi Stadium against the Rams certainly doesn’t help the ranking.

Even more telling is the fact the Lions attained five red zone drives but never got a 1st-and-goal against the Rams. In a game decided by nine points, failing to score a single touchdown on five different possessions in the red zone is a crushing blow.

This is where the lack of a true big-play receiver factors in. It’s also where lacking a long target who can make catches over defenders or away from his body is also a problem. T.J. Hockenson is the only real red zone threat in the receiving game. Alas, the Rams knew that and picked off Jared Goff trying to force him the ball in Detroit’s fateful last red zone possession in Week 7.

Of course, the Lions own red zone defense is even worse. Detroit ranks dead last, 32nd of 32 teams, in preventing opposing offenses from scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Lions concede TDs on over 84 percent of defensive red zone possessions. Only the Raiders and Packers join the Lions in surrendering over 75 percent.

Green Bay (6-1) and Las Vegas (5-2) prove that being bad in one red zone isn’t necessarily a dealbreaker. And being great on offense isn’t any guarantee of success; the top three red zone offenses belong to New Orleans (3-2), San Francisco (2-4) and Seattle (2-4). If the Lions can start progressing out of the bottom three in each red zone, it will do wonders for Dan Campbell’s “close but no cigar” Lions.

The Eagles, Detroit’s foe in Ford Field in Week 8, are a good team to start the climb. The Philadelphia offense has been good in the red zone (70.8% TDs – 6th), but their defense ranks 28th at allowing touchdowns on 78.5 of opposing chances.

Lions vs. Bengals game recap: Everything we know

Game recap, key plays, stats and more from the Lions bad loss to the Bengals

Sunday’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and Cincinnati Bengals was free from any second-half drama. It was the first Lions game this season that lacked important drives and momentum swings. Unfortunately, the Bengals ran away with an easy blowout road win.

If fans bailed early on this one, it’s easy to forgive them. Cincinnati outclassed the host Lions on both sides of the ball. The Lions defense kept the first half interesting, but that quickly went away when Joe Burrow led the Bengals to two quick scoring drives to open the second half, wrapped around two ugly offensive possessions from Jared Goff and the Lions.

 

Lions pass defense has dramatically improved over the last 3 weeks

The Lions QB Rating allowed has jumped from 32nd in Weeks 1-2 to 11th in Weeks 3-5

Looking for a silver lining in the winless clouds hanging over the Detroit Lions? Take a look at the young secondary and the steps the pass defense has taken over the last three games.

Despite losing top CB Jeff Okudah in Week 1 and his replacement, Ifeatu Melifownu in Week 2, the Lions pass defense has performed much better in Weeks 3-5 than it did in the opening two games. Some of that credit must go to youngsters like Jerry Jacobs, AJ Parker and Bobby Price, who have made some plays while taking their lumps as they learn how to play in the NFL on the fly.

The Lions still sit 30th overall for the season in QB Rating allowed to opposing passers. The 110.9 cumulative rating is ahead of only the Colts (124.9) and Jaguars (115.5) through five games. But Detroit’s awful ranking is weighted heavily by the dreadful first two weeks.

Over the last three weeks, the Lions have allowed a QB Rating of 87.0 to the Ravens, Bears and Vikings. That’s the 11th-best QB Rating allowed in that timeframe and well below the league average of 99.7 in those three weeks.

Detroit’s patchwork set of young cornerbacks has allowed just two touchdown passes in those three games, all losses. They held MVP candidate Lamar Jackson to just 16-of-31 passing, for 287 yards, one TD and one INT in Week 3. Chicago’s Justin Fields completed 11-for-17 but also threw an interception against no TDs, while Kirk Cousins threw for 275 yards, one TD and one INT. That’s not bad defense against a guy who had a QB Rating over 112 and a 9/1 TD/INT ratio entering the Week 5 game.

A good pass rush has helped. The Lions are sixth overall on the season in sack percentage and seventh in the last three weeks. Inserting speedier Jalen Reeves-Maybin into the lineup at LB has worked well, and safety Tracy Walker’s strong performance in coverage certainly helps too.

They will be challenged by Joe Burrow and the visiting Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6. Burrow is fifth in yards per pass (8.8) and seventh in QB Rating (106.4) through five games and has the NFL’s leader in receiving touchdowns in dynamic rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase.

If the Lions can get through this one without losing ground in their improvement, it’s a testimony to coordinator Aaron Glenn, DBs coach Aubrey Pleasant and the players themselves for quickly turning around their fortunes,

All stats are from Team Rankings. 

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Where does Eagles’ offense rank through 5 weeks of 2021 NFL season?

Where does the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense rank through five weeks of the 2021 NFL season?

The Eagles are just hours away from a significant Thursday night matchup against the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Philadelphia will match up with one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses and as we prepare for battle, it’s never too early to check the Eagles’ offensive rankings through five weeks.

Dan Campbell: ‘We need a lot of red zone work’ after disastrous day in Chicago

The Lions were bad on both sides of the ball in the red zone in Chicago

On the first three offensive possessions in the Week 4 loss to the Chicago Bears, the Detroit Lions offense drove the ball inside the Bears’ 10-yard line on all three. Those red zone drives produced zero points thanks to two fumbles and a failed fourth-down pass.

Meanwhile, the Bears cashed in two red zone possessions for touchdowns in the same span. It was a failure on both Lions units in the red zones, something that did not please Detroit rookie head coach Dan Campbell.

“You know what, we need a lot of third down work. We need a lot of red zone work,” an obviously frustrated Campbell said after the game. “So that’s what we’re going to start focusing on. We’re going to do a ton of work down there. We’ve been able to move the ball pretty good. We did it for the most part today inside the field, base downs, first, second down. But now we get into some of these third downs, fourth downs, got to have its, we get in the red zone.”

The Lions scored just once, a Kalif Raymond TD reception, in five offensive red zone possessions in Chicago. The Bears posted three touchdowns in four trips into the Lions red zone in the 24-14 win.

Coach Campbell continued,

“So we need work. And if we’ve got to do three days of that this week, that’s all we’ll do. We won’t even work base. But we’re going to get better at it.”

The Lions defense ranks 29th in red zone touchdown percentage, allowing the opposing offense to score touchdowns on 71 percent of their red zone possessions. Detroit’s offense is now tied for 17th at scoring touchdowns at a 61 percent clip, though they’re just two for their last seven over the last two games.

Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens: Everything we know

Score, stats, stars, keys to the game and more

What was a dreadful football game for most of the afternoon turned into an unexpected and controversial thriller in Ford Field. The Baltimore Ravens edged the Detroit Lions, 19-17, when Ravens kicker Justin Tucker made an NFL-record 66-yard field goal as time expired to lead Baltimore to the comeback win.

The field goal came after the officiating crew missed an obvious delay-of-game penalty on the play before the field goal, a Lamar Jackson throw that also meets the definition of intentional grounding.

This was a much better performance from the Lions defense, regardless of the loss. It was also a sloppy offensive effort from both teams, with the Ravens blowing several opportunities to put the game away early with a litany of dropped passes and penalties. Detroit had some drops and misfires of its own, too.

The loss drops the Lions to 0-3, while the Ravens sneak out of town at 2-1.

Here’s what we know from the game in a few nutshells.

The Lions are dead last in PFF coverage grade through the 1st two weeks

The Lions coverage remains a serious problem even though the PFF score has significantly improved from 2020

Now that every team has two games in the books, there’s something of a baseline established for who teams are and what their identity might be. For the Detroit Lions, one of the hallmarks of the first two weeks is bad pass coverage.

According to Pro Football Focus grading of every player on every snap, the Lions have recorded the worst cumulative pass coverage grade of all 32 NFL teams. Detroit has earned a score of just 40.1, well below the No. 31 team on the list, the Indianapolis Colts (43.5).

Interestingly, the linebackers are more responsible for the low grade than the cornerbacks, though that doesn’t absolve the DBs from their poor grades either. Amani Oruwariye has the second-lowest mark of any CB who has played at least 50% of his team’s snaps with a 32.1. The next two worst Lions are LBs Alex Anzalone (33.4) and Jamie Collins (37.4).

One player who stands out positively: AJ Parker. The undrafted rookie CB has a score of 71.1, second-best on the team behind OLB Trey Flowers, who has an elite score of 92.3 on his 11 coverage reps through two weeks.

The more standard NFL statistics reinforce the terrible PFF grade. Detroit has surrendered a QB Rating of 147.8 to the 49ers and Packers. That figure is handily the worst in the NFL, well below the Colts at 132.0.

Believe it or not, the score of 40.1 represents a significant improvement over the 2020 season. The Lions finished dead last with a PFF coverage score of just 28.7 for the entire 2020 campaign.

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Jared Goff was the NFL’s most accurate QB in the red zone in 2020

Lions quarterback Jared Goff was the NFL’s most accurate QB in the red zone in 2020 while with the Rams

Here’s a little stat that could probably win you some money on a bet…

Jared Goff was the NFL’s most accurate quarterback in terms of ball placement in the red zone in the 2020 NFL season. Goff certainly isn’t the first name that springs to mind when thinking about hyper-accurate quarterbacks in the condensed field, but the new Lions quarterback did that better than any other QB in 2020 for the Rams.

Using data from Sports Information Systems (SIS), analyst Brad Congelio charted just how well Goff was on target inside the opposing 20-yard line.

Alas, Goff was below the average line outside the red zone. Goff is in the same range as Jimmy Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson, though still ahead of the man he’s replacing in Detroit, Matthew Stafford. The new Rams quarterback was more accurate outside the red zone, however.

The Lions fans who coveted Tua Tagovailoa might not want to look in the lower-left quadrant, i.e. “the bad zone”, where the Dolphins QB was way out on an island in his rookie campaign.

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