Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for the Week 1.
All 32 NFL teams enter Week 1 with the hope of a successful season. Unfortunately for half the league, a Week 1 loss will put them in panic mode to get their season back on track and stop piling up losses.
For this week’s bets, we take a pair of home favorites, one Over, one Under, and a road dog with a pretty good pedigree.
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A league-wide view into the best wagers to make for NFL Week 1 action.
As is customary in Week 1 of the NFL, because teams haven’t shown much in the preseason, point spreads are tight and home teams are favored.
Of the 16 games on the schedule, 13 of the games have a point spread of four points or less and 14 of the favored teams are the home teams. Don’t get used to it, because after strengths and deficiencies become clear, you won’t see so many close games or home favorites happen later in the season.
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The Chiefs are a modest home favorite (3 points at -115 Ravens, -105 Chiefs). Kansas City was caught off-guard in the season-opening game last year against Detroit and fought uphill the entire season. These two could meet again in late-January with the Super Bowl on the line. The Chiefs want that game (if it happens) to be at Arrowhead and they will be ready. Take the Chiefs and lay 3 points (-105).
The Eagles have a “home game” in Brazil and this game has a very high Over/Under (49 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Road trips break up the regimented routine teams are accustomed to, and both teams traveling to another continent will make it difficult to hit on all cylinders offensively with a point this high. Take the Under (-110).
The Bills are the second-biggest favorite of the week (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). I’ve always had a problem with West Coast teams heading east and playing in the early-window games. The game starts at 10 a.m. local time for the Cardinals, and it’s a distinct home-field advantage for Buffalo. Bills Mafia will make things miserable for the Cardinals and get the season off to a strong start. Take the Bills and lay 6.5 points (-110).
The Bengals are the biggest favorite of the week (8 points at -110 for both teams). The Patriots are in complete rebuild mode and a healthy Bengals team has Super Bowl aspirations. With both teams as healthy as they’re going to be, you bet on the more talented team regardless of the point spread. Take the Bengals and lay 8 points (-110).
The Vikings are one of the two road favorites this week (1.5 points at -110 for both). The Giants are undergoing significant change that will take time to mesh on both sides of the ball. The Vikings have the better roster for this game, but it may be the last time in a long time Minnesota is a favorite. Given their schedule, there is a sense of urgency to get a win here. Take the Vikings and lay 1.5 points (-110).
There is optimism in both cities that they’re in a new era with young talent. The Over/Under is high (45 points at -110 for both). With two extremely young quarterbacks likely getting conservative play-calling that requires 10 plays for a scoring drive, this number seems a little too high. Take the Under (-110).
The Saints are a solid home favorite (4 points at -110 for both the Panthers and Saints). These are two franchises that need every divisional win they can get. While the Saints are an aging team, their experience will help defend their yard against a younger team. Take the Saints and lay 4 points (-110).
Both franchises have gone veteran-from-the-outside at quarterback. The Over/Under is low (42 points at -110 for both). The Steelers defense will pressure Kirk Cousins into killing drives, and Russell Wilson isn’t a dynamic point scorer anymore. This game will be more defined by field goals than touchdowns. Take the Under (-110).
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There’s something about the Dolphins in September that screams points. This game has about as high as you get (49 points at -110 for both). Both offenses have the ability to be high-octane and a 14-point deficit doesn’t mean the game over. It may come late, but take the Over (-110).
These division rivals will forever be linked because of the quarterbacks they took in the 2023 draft – C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. The Over/Under is projecting a high score (49 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Eventually, the defenses will find ways to limit the damage of the opposing quarterbacks, but this game has the feel of a back-and-forth barn burner. Take the Over (-110).
This is the lowest Over/Under of the week (40.5 points at -110 for both). The Raiders offense is brutal. Their defense has more than enough talent to keep Justin Herbert in check when he’s replacing his top-three passing targets. History says this game should hit the Over. That last time this matchup hit Under, the Raiders were still in Oakland, but this has the looks of a field-position game. Take the Under (-110).
Seattle is a really big favorite (6 points at -110 for both teams). In Week 1, only two teams are favored by more, and the Seahawks are far from dominant. The Broncos are crawling out of the wreckage of their recent past, but too many scenarios could have Denver finding ways to cover. Take the Broncos plus 6 points (-110).
The Browns are a home favorite (2.5 points), but this bet is based upon a simple premise. Since 2006, the Browns have a Week 1 record of 2-15-1 – by far the worst in the NFL. There’s reason to think that this year could be different, but that’s been said before many times before and been wrong. Take the Cowboys on the moneyline (+120).
The Commanders are turning a page on a new era, and this will be their first test. The Buccaneers are an expected favorite (3 points at -105 Commanders, -115 Buccaneers). Their veteran-laden experience won’t be enough to get the Bucs to the playoffs, but it will be enough to get past a team in formative steps. Take the Buccaneers and lay 3 points (-115).
This is the highest Over/Under of Week 1 (51 points at -110 for both). When healthy, the Rams offense can be lethal – much less with Matthew Stafford coming back to Motown in primetime. The Lions have legitimate preseason Super Bowl aspirations for the first time in forever. If either team gets up by 14 points, they will look to make it 21. Take the Over (-110).
Aaron Rodgers as a Jet was a cute story last year that ended in four plays. The 49ers are a decently sized favorite (4 points at -110 for both the Jets and 49ers). If San Francisco is on its game, a double-digit win isn’t out of the question – even against a very good Jets defense. Welcome back to the NFC, Aaron! Take the 49ers and lay 4 points (-110).
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
Recapping our staff’s all-time and 2023 NFL season picks.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
Here’s the final recap of the 2023 season and the all-time record tally for moneyline and ATS betting.
New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
*former staffers who no longer compete won
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
As the hours tick down to the final game of the season, two of the preseason favorites to meet in the Super Bowl will happen when, for the second time in five years, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet for the championship.
For the biggest game of the year, this week’s five prop bets include the biggest stars in the game – two players to go Over their projections, both quarterbacks going Under their stat forecast, and the most prolific postseason scorer of his generation doing it again.
The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Super Bowl LVIII.
In the postseason, those who have bet on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have gone to the pay window many more times than not. As such, many are jumping on the chance of getting the Chiefs and a couple of points. Those who bet against Mahomes in the postseason do so at their own peril as he continues to cement his legacy as one of the GOATs.
That all said, these are the two teams most deserving to be in the biggest game of the year, and the San Francisco 49ers are being viewed by most of the talking heads as being the underdogs. In a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, the 49ers have many more players in critical positions than the Chiefs. Kansas City has three – Mahomes, Travis Kelce-Swift and Chris Jones. San Francisco has seven – Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk on offense and Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw on defense.
As these bets will show, that veteran revenge factor weighs into all of them.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
New BetMGM customers can sign up today and get a First Bet Offer up to $1,500 using bonus code USAT. Just download the BetMGM app, deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. If your first bet loses, you will receive bonus bets in the amount of your bet (up to $1,500). Just make sure you use bonus code USAT when you sign up. Bet Now!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. CO, DC, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MS, NJ, NV, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY. Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA). 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, New York or Ontario.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
2023 Season-long rankings: moneyline
DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Super Bowl LVIII sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the Vegas odds for Super Bowl LVIII.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
Four teams are going to be cut down to two, and the prop bets highlighted for this week include all four of them. There’s one tight end achieving and one underachieving, a wide receiver with a number too low to pass up and another whose ask is just too high, and Mr. Irrelevant proving his relevance
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for the Conference Championships.
And then there were four.
The AFC and NFC Conference Championship games are upon us and you have storylines-a-plenty coming in. The two top seeds are both healthy favorites, but in the 49 years of playoff seeding since 1975, only 14 Super Bowls have featured the two top-seeded teams – just 28%.
The deletion of one team getting a bye in each conference has played a part in unleveling the playing field. Both No. 1 seeds are the only ones to get a week off, and they played on Saturday at home in the Divisional Round, giving them an additional day of recovery and preparation against teams that have already had to win twice.
The nagging question is whether you believe history will repeat itself two years in a row, and the teams with the bye make it pay off with a trip to the Super Bowl.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
