Now that we’re in the stretch run of the 2019 NFL regular season and we have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the quarterbacks around the league, I thought it would be a good time to revisit my preseason rankings of all 32 starters and do a little re-ranking.
Due to injuries and/or benchings, the group of 32 we started with is not the group of 32 we currently have. Cam Newton and Ben Roethlisberger are out. Eli Manning was benched. Joe Flacco is either hurt or was benched for criticizing his coaches. I’ve left those guys off this list. I’ve also left off the new starting quarterbacks who haven’t played much, so if you’re looking for Dwayne Haskins, Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley, you’re going to be disappointed. Just know that those three would have ranked at the very bottom of the list, anyway. The exact order is up to you. We’ll just rank the remaining 29.
For these updated rankings, I used the same methodology I used back in August. Here’s a quick refresher:
These particular quarterback rankings are not objective — and I will not pretend like they are. They are flawed just like every other ranking you’ve ever read.
Statistical production wasn’t a factor. Instead, I ranked the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks based on my own (admittedly flawed and biased) evaluation of their play using film from the 2018 season. I graded each passer on the six attributes I believe to be the most important for the position: Accuracy, decision making, pocket presence, arm strength, creativity and consistency.
Each of those attributes was weighted based on importance, with accuracy and decision making carrying the most weight and creativity and consistency carrying the least. The final weighted score determined the order of this list.
These updated rankings are based on how the quarterbacks have performed in 2019 and how I expect them to perform going forward. Got it? Good, let’s rank some quarterbacks…
So Mason Rudolph hasn’t been — and probably never will be — what Steelers fans had hoped: A potential replacement for Ben Roethlisberger. It’s probably best that they found out sooner rather than later. Now the front office can start a real search for Ben’s successor. Rudolph is timid in the pocket and doesn’t seem to have a play-making bone in his body. He’ll make a fine backup, though.
Oh, Mitch. It was fun while it lasted. Actually, that’s not true. It could have been fun, but Mitch Tubisky was never able to properly execute Matt Nagy’s system. Even when Trubisky was able to make the proper reads, his accuracy would often let him down. Especially on downfield throws. When Trubisky pushes the ball downfield, he looks like he’s just lobbing it up there and hoping for the best. The best has rarely happened in 2019.
The Kyle Allen hype train lasted for exactly a month before the former undrafted free agent turned back into a pumpkin. The truth is, outside of one or two good starts, Allen hasn’t played well all season. His box score stats hid the fact that he was often late to see throws, had shoddy accuracy and wasn’t very good at managing the pocket. He did manage to fool some prominent members of the NFL media into thinking he was a quarterback worth building around. So he has that going for him.
Ryan Fitzpatrick thrives on bad teams. He’s able to play his wild brand of football without having to worry about expectations or high-pressure situations. For all of Fitzpatrick’s faults — and there are a lot of them — the man is unafraid to make a play. If only he had a stronger arm.
Nick Foles has only played one full game and … well, he looked a lot like the Nick Foles we’re used to seeing. No, not the one who went on a heater and won the Eagles a Super Bowl. The other one who isn’t very accurate and is incapable of making plays outside of structure.
I have to give credit where it’s due: Josh Allen looks like a real NFL quarterback. Now, he still doesn’t look like a very good one, but he has been more accurate — just don’t ask him to hit on a deep ball — and he seems to have a better understanding of coverages. Combine that with his athletic ability, and you have a serviceable quarterback. That’s as far as I’m willing to go.
At the very least, Jones has shown that he won’t be a disaster as an NFL quarterback. The guy can execute an offense from the pocket and is athletic enough to make plays outside of it. He’s also very good in the quick passing game. It’s when he has to make plays downfield that his limitations are exposed. A lack of arm talent limits his ceiling, but Jones’ floor is very high.
I say this with all due respect: Ryan Tannehill is the most boring quarterback I’ve ever watched on tape. He is completely uninteresting, which is odd to say about a quarterback who played some receiver in college. You’d at least expect him to be elusive in the pocket, but nope. If Tannehill faces pressure, he’s going down. He is accurate and can read a defense, which is more than I can say for about a third of the league’s starters. I’ll also say this: If he was on the Bears, Chicago would be in the playoff mix right now.
I’m lumping these two together because they are essentially the same guy. Well, Sam Darnold is more athletic and Jameis Winston has a better understanding of defenses, but beyond that, this is a “Spider-Man point at himself” meme situation. Winston is the ghost of Darnold’s future. It’s not too late for Darnold to turn it around and develop into the Jet’s franchise guy. The same cannot be said for Winston, who just hasn’t been able to overcome his crippling addiction to dumb throws. Maybe a change of scenery will help.
Things aren’t so easy for a quarterback when the scheme isn’t doing the heavy lifting. Jared Goff probably already knew that having played on bad Cal teams and for Jeff Fisher, but this season has to be particularly frustrating. Goff’s protection hasn’t been good, but it’s his own inefficient delivery in the quick passing game that has prevented Sean McVay from really adjusting. Goff is still young and has time to develop, but McVay holding his hand through the early part of his career may have stunted his evolution.
This Baker Mayfield we’re seeing in 2019 is the one I thought we’d see in 2018: He’s a talented thrower but happy feet in the pocket can cause him to be late on throws or just flat out miss them. Everyone wants to know what’s wrong with the Browns offense; it starts with that. It’s hard to be too pessimistic, though. Mayfield did show he’s capable of playing with poise in the pocket during his rookie season.
The Cardinals are headed for another losing season, but they have to be happy with what they’ve seen from the first-overall pick. Kyler Murray has been as advertised in that he is already one of the league’s most talented throwers and his speed has translated to the NFL level. He’s also making big plays from the pocket, which may surprise some but not anybody who overlooked his height and really studied his game before the draft. By next season, Murray could be a top-10 quarterback in this league.
Jacoby Brissett is never going to be Andrew Luck, but I don’t think the gap in their skill sets is as wide as many people believe. I would like to see him throw downfield more often, but it’s been hard with T.Y. Hilton in and out of the lineup. His WR1 is back now and we may finally get to see Brissett show off his full range of skills. He’s a willing pocket passer with a big arm, and he’s sped up his process this season which has boosted his efficiency. Brissett will just keep getting better the more he plays.
I don’t know what to think about Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s either really good or kind of bad. Or maybe he’s both. The quick release against pressure in combination with his undeniable arm talent can make for some pretty plays, but then he’ll panic in the pocket and just heave the ball into double coverage. 49ers fans will have to ride that roller coaster all season. Having Kyle Shanahan there to direct it could make things easier on the stomach, at least.
Derek Carr is producing like a top-10 quarterback. Now, a lot of the credit for his resurgence should go to the offensive line, but that doesn’t mean Carr hasn’t taken major strides as a passer. He’s always had a strong arm, but Jon Gruden has finally gotten him to use it. And, to his credit, Carr has been more willing to hang in there against pressure and try to make plays on the move. I still want to see him do it without the best offensive line in the NFL.
I might be the last person on the planet who doesn’t think Philip Rivers is washed. The interceptions look bad, but that represents a small sample of his throws and there are a lot of good ones on this 2019 tape that you wouldn’t see from a washed quarterback. And Rivers still does all the little things that have made him a great quarterback throughout his career. He’s still making brilliant checks at the line and reading the defense in a nanosecond.
Calm down, Patriots fans. I know. I KNOW! You are already screen-shotting this to throw back in my face when Tom Brady is lifting another Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season. But even YOU can’t deny that he doesn’t look the same this season. He’s missing easy throws with regularity and, worse, he doesn’t have any interest in getting hit. Who would? Well, it’s part of the job and with Brady not interested in buying extra time for his receivers to get open, the Pats offense is sputtering.
This ranking isn’t going to appease anyone. For the Kirk Cousins haters, this is too high for a streaky player who still takes the easy way out a little too often. For his backers, this will be too low for a guy who is producing like an elite quarterback while also making a handful of beautiful throws each week. I have to admit that Cousins has greatly exceeded my expectations, but I’m still skeptical. One thing I can say for sure: Our perception of Cousins will change based on how the rest of this season goes. For better or worse.
As evidenced by his preseason ranking, I didn’t get too low on Matt Stafford after years of captivity in Jim Bob Cooter’s boring offense. With Darrell Bevell calling the shots in Detroit now, Stafford can finally be himself and sling the ball downfield. That aggressiveness has helped boost Stafford’s efficiency numbers but he’s also managed to avoid a lot of the headache-inducing mistakes he made in his past life as a gunslinger. Right now, we’re watching peak Matt Stafford and … he’s pretty damn good.
Carson Wentz is undoubtedly one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL. But he should be better, right? Maybe it’s the Eagles receivers holding him back. Maybe it’s the play-calling. Some of this also falls on Wentz, who’s still just a little too inconsistent with his accuracy and is liable to make a bad read or two. Wentz may just be one of those guys who remain on the periphery of the top tier for his entire career.
I have no doubt in my mind that Deshaun Watson will one day evolve into an elite quarterback. He’s just not quite there yet. Which is fine because he’s still young and just now learning how to play behind a semi-competent line. But Watson’s development has been impressive. He’s rapidly improving in the quick passing game, which gives him a nice Plan B when teams focus on taking away deep shots.
Matt Ryan is so good at everything that he’s kind of boring to watch. Sure, his arm isn’t great and he’s not going to gash defenses with his legs, but he knows how to work the pocket and read a defense and he generally gets the ball where it needs to be. I don’t know if he’s good enough to carry an offense on his own, but Ryan is clearly a quarterback who is worth the crazy money starters get these days.
I had no idea where to put Drew Brees on this list. We’ve barely seen him play this season and he really hasn’t had to do too much when he has played. His arm dying in mid-December is, of course, a concern, but I think that narrative was overblown in the offseason. Brees is still a great quarterback who will find the open receiver and hit him on time and on target. I just don’t know what else he offers at this point in his career.
Lamar Jackson is the biggest riser on the list, but I’m not surprised by his ascension. Here’s what I wrote back in August:
If he can just get to a point where he’s getting the ball to those open receivers on a more consistent basis, Jackson will be a star in this league. He’s shown signs of developing into that kind of passer during the 2019 preseason. If it carries over into the regular season, the NFL’s biggest rushing threat (that includes running backs) should easily outplay this ranking.
It’s safe to say that the development we saw in the preseason has carried over to the regular season — and then some. Jackson has already developed into a league-average passer at 22, which is kind of amazing give where he was at last season. What’s more surprising is that he’s actually improved as a runner. Jackson is now doing the kind of things we saw him do at Louisville against NFL players. That’s astonishing. Imagine what he’ll be doing when he hits his prime.
I feel so ashamed looking back at my preseason ranking of Dak Prescott. I have only myself to blame for selling him short. I was one of the first people on the Dak bandwagon, and I stuck with him during a rough sophomore campaign. But then I started falling for the narratives and my belief that Prescott was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL was shaken. It was a moment of weakness, but I’ve enjoyed him spending the last few months making me and other nonbelievers look like fools with his exquisite play from the pocket and command of the Cowboys offense. As I argued earlier this month, Dak is now officially one of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks. Shame on me for ever doubting him.
Aaron Rodgers has lost a few MPH off his fastball and isn’t quite as accurate on the move as he once was, but this is still one of the more physically gifted quarterbacks in the league. Rodgers is playing within the structure of the offense more than he had been over the last few seasons and that’s typically when he’s at his best. I don’t know if he still has it in him to reach the heights of his last MVP campaign in 2016, but we’ve seen flashes of that guy.
Patrick Mahomes was never going to replicate the numbers he put up in 2018 but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t improved as a quarterback. Dealing with injuries has caused him to miss some throws, but Mahomes has made better decisions and has looked calmer in the pocket. Once he gets healthy, the numbers will get back to where they were a year ago.
Russell Wilson can still be a maddening quarterback to watch sometimes, but he’s become such a good passer that it doesn’t even matter anymore. Even if he bails out of a clean pocket or misses a receiver running open, Wilson is still going to find a way to make a play. He’s always been an accurate quarterback who can make throws from any platform but he has taken it a step further in 2019. I don’t know if I’ve seen him miss on a deep ball all season. That’s obviously an exaggeration, but you get the idea. It may not be possible for Wilson to keep this up but the gap is so wide between him and the next guy that I don’t know if he needs to in order to maintain his spot atop this list.
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