NFL QB Rankings, Week 14: Holy moly, is Brock Purdy really 2023’s MVP?

Advanced stats affirm what the betting odds tell us; Brock Purdy is 2023’s most valuable player … so far.

There’s a lot to unpack about Brock Purdy’s 2023. He is, indeed, the NFL’s most efficient quarterback. He does lead the league in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Each time he drops back to throw the ball, he’s effectively good for a first down (9.7 yards per pass).

But he’s also a low wattage offensive custodian who has thrown fewer deep balls than Zach Wilson (32 to 30, per SIS). His average air yards per pass (7.9) is only 14th-deepest in the NFL. His 69.9 percent on-target throw rate is 26th-best among starters, just ahead of Kenny Pickett. He’s heavily buoyed by a core of playmakers whose 6.6 yards after catch average is by far the highest of any team this fall.

Despite all this, he’s still the NFL’s most impactful quarterback, according to advanced stats. In fact, no one else is quite on his level.

Let’s talk about those stats. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 31 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 208 snaps in 13 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers visually into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

Philip Rivers considered a 2022 comeback with Dolphins, 49ers if you believe combine rumors

Does Rivers have something left in the tank?

Former NFL quarterback Philip Rivers has spent two seasons away from the league, but according to the rumor mill at last week’s NFL scouting combine, he was mulling a potential return as recently as late last season.

Rivers, who turned 41 in December, last played in the 2020 season for the Indianapolis Colts after spending 16 years with the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers. He was seemingly content with retired life and has spent the last two years as the head coach at St. Michael’s Catholic High School in Fairhope, Alabama.

But according to NFL Network radio host Rich Eisen, Rivers may be antsy to get back in the pads. Eisen said that he heard from multiple sources at the combine that Rivers reached out to both the Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers late last season about potentially coming out of retirement.

“I heard at the combine… that Philip Rivers contacted both of them to come back late last year,” Eisen said on his show. “Which is what I heard and the way I heard it. Didn’t happen, don’t know why it didn’t happen. But I heard that at the combine.”

If Rivers had ultimately returned to the league last season, either of those landing spots would have made a good deal of sense. Due to injuries, both were down to their third-string quarterbacks for playoff runs, most notably San Francisco’s Brock Purdy, who nearly led the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance as a rookie and reigning Mr. Irrelevant.

Ultimately, it didn’t work out, and there’s no reason to think Rivers is still pondering a potential return. But there are certainly a number of quarterback-needy teams this offseason, and there’s a chance he’d have some suitors if he were to explore a comeback this offseason.

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Eagles have 5 players featured on NFL’s best team money can buy

Jalen Hurts is the best bargain in the NFL after 5 Philadelphia Eagles were named to a CBS Sports ultimate roster of the best NFL team money can buy

With 53 players on a regular-season roster, the NFL is the one league where salary cap wizardry and bargain shopping can lead a team to Super Bowl glory.

Philadelphia is hoping to cash in on Jalen Hurts’ rookie deal before the organization is forced to compensate him like the MVP candidate he’s developed into.

Joel Corry of CBS Sports recently did an interesting breakdown of salary cap wizardry, putting together a Madden-style roster of the best team money can buy.

The Eagles and Howie Roseman led the charge with five players landing on the list that has far outplayed their current deals.

PFF ranks Joe Burrow as the No. 27 player in football

Burrow was the highest-graded passer last season according to Pro Football Focus.

It’s hard to take much bigger of a sophomore leap than [autotag]Joe Burrow[/autotag] did in 2021.

After registering arguably the best season from a passer in college football history, Burrow became the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft for the Cincinnati Bengals. He showed some promise as a rookie, though he was held back by roster holes and a torn ACL that ultimately ended his campaign prematurely.

No one knew quite what to expect from Burrow last fall, but he certainly exceeded whatever expectations were in place. He finished with 4,611 yards, 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions while leading Cincinnati to its first playoff win in three decades and within reach of a Lombardi Trophy.

Burrow isn’t being overlooked this time around, though. After his stellar second season, he ranks as the NFL’s No. 27 overall player entering the 2022 season, according to Pro Football Focus.

It seems hard to believe that just a year ago everybody was just hoping a serious knee injury didn’t derail Burrow’s career. He came back significantly better and finished the 2021 season with the highest overall PFF grade (91.8) among quarterbacks, including the playoffs. Burrow looks like one of the game’s best already and will have an improved offensive line to work behind in 2022.

The numbers certainly back up how good Burrow looked last season as he earned an elite grade that constituted the best among NFL quarterbacks. The Bengals got better up front this offseason, and with a young, superstar-in-the-making receiver in former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow should be on his way to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league, if he isn’t already.

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Is Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts the best bargain in the NFL?

Jalen #Hurts led the #Eagles to the #playoffs in his second season and it’s safe to say, no player in the #NFL offers more value at their position #TBvs#PHI #PHIvsTB #FlyEaglesFly

On Sunday in Tampa Bay, Jalen Hurts will become the youngest quarterback in Eagles history to start a playoff game (23 years old), and after watching Carson Wentz implode against Jacksonville, the former second-round pick now holds all the cards.

There are 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL and about 12-13 backups that are capable of starting at some point, as well, but Hurts did what several high-profile stars were unable to this season.

John Clark of NBC Sports recently asked a question in regards to Hurts’ value, and whether he’s the best bargain in the entire league?

We took an even deeper dive thanks to Over The Cap and NextGenStats, and you look at his total production, compared to other players around the league at his position, Hurts is by far the best bargain and offers the most value.

All 34 NFL quarterbacks that have come from the state of Ohio

Ohio has produced the fifth most NFL quarterbacks with a total of 34. Here is a list of all of them and where they are from.

It may not be what it once was, but the state of Ohio is still a very fertile state for producing NFL talent. A state that is as rabid about high school and college football, and has the NFL Hall of Fame within its borders is all you need to know about which sport rules the day in the Buckeye state.

And while the Ohio State football program doesn’t have the best track record for producing top-shelf NFL quarterbacks, the state itself has still sent its fair share to the highest level in the sport. In fact, with 34 total, Ohio has produced the fifth most NFL quarterbacks behind only California (141), Texas (79), Pennsylvania (54), and Florida (39).

ESPN recently partnered with Pro Football Reference to dissect several analytics and measurables when it comes to where NFL quarterbacks come from. For instance, Ohio isn’t known for its quarterback prospects performing up to expectations, and can’t thump its chest about having many starters, but the sheer volume is well above average.

We decided to put together a gallery of the 34 total NFL quarterbacks that have hailed from Ohio to take you down memory lane, or to perhaps raise your eyebrows in surprise.

Now, all we need to see is some of these OSU quarterbacks make a splash at the next level. You are on the clock, Mr. Justin Fields.

All 34 NFL quarterbacks that have come from the state of Ohio

Ohio has produced the fifth most NFL quarterbacks with a total of 34. Here is a list of all of them and where they are from.

It may not be what it once was, but the state of Ohio is still a very fertile state for producing NFL talent. A state that is as rabid about high school and college football, and has the NFL Hall of Fame within its borders is all you need to know about which sport rules the day in the Buckeye state.

And while the Ohio State football program doesn’t have the best track record for producing top-shelf NFL quarterbacks, the state itself has still sent its fair share to the highest level in the sport. In fact, with 34 total, Ohio has produced the fifth most NFL quarterbacks behind only California (141), Texas (79), Pennsylvania (54), and Florida (39).

ESPN recently partnered with Pro Football Reference to dissect several analytics and measurables when it comes to where NFL quarterbacks come from. For instance, Ohio isn’t known for its quarterback prospects performing up to expectations, and can’t thump its chest about having many starters, but the sheer volume is well above average.

We decided to put together a gallery of the 34 total NFL quarterbacks that have hailed from Ohio to take you down memory lane, or to perhaps raise your eyebrows in surprise.

Now, all we need to see is some of these OSU quarterbacks make a splash at the next level. You are on the clock, Mr. Justin Fields.

New Texans coach David Culley talks about QB Deshaun Watson

Houston Texans coach David Culley talked about the situation surrounding QB Deshaun Watson.

New Houston Texans coach David Culley did not shy away from the 400-pound gorilla in the room.

Instead, he did what Jimmy Johnson always advised: you hit it with everything you got.

Quarterback Deshaun Watson and his disgruntlement with the organization is no secret. It is the only action Houston sports has seen put of its football team in January after a disappointing 4-12 season.

Culley fielded a question in his introductory press conference about Watson and his request for a trade, and was very candid about what his plans were with the three-time Pro Bowler from day one as the new coach.

“The only thing I knew was I was being interviewed for head coach, Deshaun Watson is a Houston Texan,” Culley said via Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle. “That’s all I was concerned about and all I knew. He is a Houston Texan I want him to be a Houston Texan, and the reason I am in this position is because he is going to be a Houston Texan.”

If Culley can get Watson to buy in and call off the trade, it will be his first big win in the eyes of Houston sports fans.