Tag: NFL quarterback rankings

NFL QB Rankings, Week 17: Brock Purdy may be too good to catch, even after getting exploded by the Ravens

Purdy’s no longer MVP candidate, but his lead as 2023’s most efficient QB may be insurmountable.

Look, the numbers say Brock Purdy is the NFL’s best quarterback. Even if he followed up Week 16’s bed-wetting against the Baltimore Ravens with two more brutal implosions in Weeks 17 and 18, he’d probably finish 2023 as this season’s most efficient quarterback.

That, of course, doesn’t mean he’ll be league MVP.

Purdy vacated his spot as betting favorite thanks to Christmas night’s four-interception performance. In his place rose Lamar Jackson, who had two touchdowns and just under 300 total yards in Santa Clara. Jackson’s numbers aren’t wholly impressive; even advanced stats paint him as a top 10 quarterback instead of a top three guy. But he’s impossible to quantify thanks to his ability to flip a game on its axis with a single play, whether it’s on the ground or through the air.

Well, let’s see who lies between the top-ranked Purdy and No. 10 Jackson.

Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 31 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 256 snaps in 16 weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers visually into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:

via rbsdm.com and the author

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 9: The Raiders paid $72 million for one of the league’s worst passers

Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts are rising up the ranks. Garoppolo? Hooo buddy, no.

Jimmy Garoppolo is a problem.

He always kinda has been, but San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan was able to mitigate his inability to throw downfield and penchant for tossing wild, interceptable passes on short routes by surrounding him with playmakers. With guys like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk on the roster he was able to help push the Niners to three conference title games in four years.

The Las Vegas Raiders tried to replicate that success, knowing it had a specific ceiling but understanding fully the struggle of landing a franchise quarterback on the open market. It had a ready-made crutch for Garoppolo’s worst throws in Davante Adams, who is about as good a bailout artist as you’ll find in the NFL.

But Adams, through no fault of his own, has just 14 catches in his last four weeks, forced to watch a near-sighted passer throw well outside his field of vision. Las Vegas is 2-2 in these games, but that’s more a function of having played the two-win Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots in back-to-back weeks. Before getting rolled by the Detroit Lions — a game where Adams had seven targets and one catch — the Raiders also snuck in an 18-point loss to Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears.

Garoppolo didn’t play against Chicago (and he won’t against the New York Giants in Week 9, because he’s been benched), but he averaged just 165 passing yards per game in the other three contests. He threw more interceptions (three) than touchdowns (two) and lost 70 yards via sack. His expected points added (EPA) in that span is -0.201 per play — worse than any other starter but Joshua Dobbs and Zach Wilson. Advanced stats paint him as one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this fall. And that’s what the Raiders, now coach-less after (justifiably) firing Josh McDaniels, owe $11 million — and a $28 million salary cap — to in 2024.

Let’s talk about those stats. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 128 snaps in eight weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 8: Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes and the 4 man race to be 2023’s best QB

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy are locked in battle for the top spot.

Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa backslid in Week 7. Now Patrick Mahomes has them in his sights.

The reigning MVP’s steady climb up the advanced stats rankings continued after a comfortable 14-point win over the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday. By leaning on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, Mahomes proved he’s still elite — and the numbers back it up.

He vaulted into third place in this week’s rankings thanks to a 424-yard, four touchdown performance — the fifth 400-yard, four-plus touchdown game of his career to date. Ahead of him lie Purdy and Josh Allen, two quarterbacks who failed to win as road favorites last week but turned in performances that, at the very least, looked decent on the stat sheet despite missed opportunities. With Tagovailoa close behind, these are the four players advanced stats suggest are frontrunners for this year’s MVP race.

Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 112 snaps in seven weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 6: Joe Burrow, no longer the league’s worst quarterback

That leaves Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett at the bottom.

Brock Purdy emerged as the NFL’s most efficient quarterback after Week 4. Then he faced a dominant Dallas Cowboys defense and strengthened his grip on the top spot.

Purdy carved up the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, roasting the ersatz NFC contenders with 252 passing yards and four touchdowns on only 24 attempts. Meanwhile, Dak Prescott struggled against a smothering San Francisco defense and merely “good” performances from Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa helped the second-year pro and former 262nd overall pick widen his lead over the field.

So who else might catch him? Fortunately, we’ve got the data to learn who might be charging into his rear view.

Let’s talk about those numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 33 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 80 snaps in five weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author.

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 4: Joe Burrow stays tethered to the bottom

Meanwhile, Brock Purdy ascends as 2023’s most efficient player … for now.

Two things stand about about the NFL’s quarterback pecking order after four weeks. Brock Purdy probably can’t be this good. And Joe Burrow certainly isn’t this bad.

Purdy has ascended to the top spot in the rankings, supplanting Tua Tagovailoa following Sunday’s weak showing against a brutal Buffalo Bills defense. He’s utilizing his playmakers to perfection and, importantly, making his deep shots count, connecting on all five of his throws of 10-plus yards in a rout of the Cardinals — and winging all five completions to a rising Brandon Aiyuk.

Burrow, sputtering engine behind the 1-3 Cincinnati Bengals, has moved in the opposite direction. He has a single completion on only 10 passes that have traveled at least 20 yards downfield and is completing only 31.5 percent of his throws that make it 10-plus yards from the line of scrimmage. A nagging calf injury has left him a mess and stars like Ja’Marr Chase underutilized and frustrated.

We’re roughly a quarter of the way through the 2023 regular season and there’s plenty of time for things to change. But as it stands Purdy looks like the second coming of Tom Brady and a hobbled Burrow is playing like slightly shorter Brock Osweiler. This would be very difficult to explain to someone just a year ago, yet here we are. The NFL is a weird place, man.

What about the 32 players between them in the rankings? We’ve got advanced stats that can tell us where they stand after four games.

Let’s talk about these numbers. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 34 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 64 snaps in four weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 3: Joe Burrow, the league’s least efficent passer

Per advanced stats, Burrow is the worst starting quarterback of 2023. It can’t last … right?

Joe Burrow is not the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He’s not even close.

But as he limps through a calf injury, he’s playing several leagues below his own standard. And, according to advanced stats, is the league’s least accurate, most damaging passer through three weeks.

These stats don’t have a learning curve. They aren’t measuring Burrow’s toughness and ability while playing through an injury that’s sapped his mobility and left him lagging on the downfield throws he used to be able to step into and deliver on a line. What they do measure is the fact he’s completed just one of 10 deep balls, his average completion distance is down to a minuscule 3.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and that, despite throwing shorter passes than all but two other quarterbacks, he’s completing a career-worst 55 percent of his attempts.

Thus, Burrow sinks to the bottom of these rankings despite gritting out a win and being smart enough to let Ja’Marr Chase carry him on a night where he couldn’t be himself. Tua Tagovailoa, on the other hand, has risen to the top by effectively declaring himself Snow Miser in the Miami Dolphins’ blizzard offense. In between are 32 other quarterbacks, ranked and ordered thanks to advanced stats.

Let’s talk about these stats. Expected points added (EPA) is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength. It considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is completion percentage over expected (CPOE), which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 34 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 48 snaps in three weeks — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect eight-layer system that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author.

These rankings are sorted by a composite of adjusted EPA and CPOE to better understand who has brought the most — and the least — value to their teams across the small sample size. It’s not a full exploration of a player’s value, but it’s a viable starting point. Let’s take a closer look.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 2: Deshaun Watson, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson race to the bottom

And the numbers tell us Russell Wilson is playing like a top five quarterback (and thus make us doubt the numbers).

Week 2 marked Tua Tagovailoa’s ascension to betting favorite in the 2023 NFL MVP race. The advanced stats agree — albeit across a small sample size.

Tagovailoa has been this season’s most efficient quarterback, even after the New England Patriots knocked him off his torrid Week 1 pace in a 24-17 Miami victory Sunday night. While that’s a bit of a surprise, it may not be as shocking as the quarterbacks who sit in third and fourth place through two games: 1-1 Jimmy Garoppolo and the man he beat to get that lone win, Russell Wilson.

So yes, the data isn’t quite bulletproof as we use advanced stats to get a better picture of which quarterbacks are outplaying expectations this fall. Garoppolo’s short-pass, risk-averse style has always performed well in terms of expected points added (EPA), and after getting a boost from the San Francisco 49ers’ core of playmaking targets he’s now got a rocket in the form of Davante Adams strapped to him. Garoppolo had just a 40.9 passer rating when targeting any Raiders not named Adams and threw two interceptions on short passes intended for his running backs. He doesn’t belong here.

Neither does Wilson, whose cold finishes have left the Broncos foundering once again. No quarterback in the league is more efficient in the first two quarters of the game, where the veteran’s 0.628 EPA/play is by far the best in the league. In the final two quarters that number drops to -0.081: 24th-best among starters.

Let’s talk about these stats. EPA is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength, considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is CPOE, which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 32 snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get an imperfect seven-layer system that looks like this (plus whatever Jordan Love is doing in the upper left corner):

via RBSDM.com and the author

With a slightly larger sample size at play, this week’s rankings will sort this year’s qualified quarterbacks by a composite of their EPA and CPOE scores. Tua Tagovailoa stands at the top. Zach Wilson is the anchor at the bottom. Here’s how each passer sorts out in between.

NFL QB Rankings, Week 1: Advanced stats say 2023’s most efficient quarterback is … Jordan Love?

Small sample sizes mean Jordan Love and Jimmy Garoppolo are elite. And nearly two-thirds of QBs are below average, statistically.

It would be patronizing to open this ranking with a warning about small sample sizes, right? You all know that just because Jimmy Garoppolo was a top five quarterback in Week 1 doesn’t mean he’ll stay that way — or that advanced metrics like completion percentage over expected (CPOE) or expected points added (EPA) aren’t meaningful.

Right, because that’s where we are. 60 minutes of game play per team — though Josh Allen got slightly more — have dropped the first batch of quarterback data into our hands for analysis. And while there are several ways to measure passers, these rankings use advanced stats in hopes of parsing out a player’s overall impact and accounting for the defenses they’ve played. But with limited numbers to draw from, we get some figures that don’t quite pass the smell test.

This is a problem that corrects itself over time as more data points are established and outliers become apparent. But after Week 1 I can tell you, well, no quarterback in the league was more valuable than Jordan Love. Three slots behind him was the man who engineered all of 17 points against the Denver Broncos, Garoppolo.

Phew, OK. Let’s talk about these stats. EPA is a concept that’s been around since 1970. It’s effectively a comparison between what an average quarterback could be expected to do on a certain down and what he actually did — and how it increased his team’s chances of scoring. The model we use comes from The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his RBSDM.com website, which is both wildly useful AND includes adjusted EPA, which accounts for defensive strength, considers the impact of penalties and does not negatively impact passers for fumbles after a completion.

The other piece of the puzzle is CPOE, which is pretty much what it sounds like. It’s a comparison of all the completions a quarterback would be expected to make versus the ones he actually did. Like EPA, it can veer into the negatives and higher is better. So if you chart all 32 primary quarterbacks — the ones who played at least 16 snaps in Week 1 — you get a chart that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com

Top right hand corner is good. Bottom left corner is bad. Try splitting those passers into tiers and you get a big ol’ jumble that looks like this:

via RBSDM.com and the author.

There are a lot of players taking up the creamy middle ground and some strange outliers. That makes it tough to separate this year’s quarterbacks into tiers at such an early date. Instead, we’ll kick off the season by ranking each QB by adjusted EPA/play alone and wait for CPOE numbers to stabilize a bit. So how do these 32 quarterbacks shake out in an entirely-too-small-to-be-meaningful sample size?

ESPN: Justin Herbert checks in as fifth-best quarterback ahead of 2023 season

ESPN released a ranking of NFL quarterbacks compiled via a survey of executives, coaches and scouts around the league.

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert will continue to play the underdog in 2023 after NFL executives, coaches, and scouts ranked him as the fifth-best signal caller in the league during a recent ESPN poll.

Herbert, who has seemingly done nothing but win for Los Angeles, was ranked behind Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has struggled to find his footing under center in recent seasons.

These rankings are by no means empirical, but they definitely seem to favor quarterbacks on teams that have found success in the playoffs rather than valuing production in the regular season.

Herbert has led L.A. back to relevance since taking over the starting spot back in 2020, and if it weren’t for the Chargers’ total defensive collapse in January’s playoffs, he likely would have taken a top-three spot on this list.

His career 94:35 touchdown to interception ratio and 14,089 passing yards speak for themselves, and the prospect of having the 25-year-old passer under center for the next decade-plus should be plenty of consolation for fans who take exception to Herbert’s place in ESPN’s poll.