Backups haven’t been the betting locks people assume them to be.
How about the NFL’s backup quarterbacks? If there’s one general rule I’ll take away from Week 4 of the season, it’s to simply stop overreacting to teams forced to roll out a backup.
We already know what Cooper Rush has done for the Cowboys, going 4-0 in his chances to play. But the Patriots also got good enough performances from Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe to push the Packers to the brink of a loss. And Andy Dalton almost beat the Vikings in London. All three teams covered their spreads. The Giants also covered, and they played without a QB for a short period. The public heavily backed the spread of teams playing against backups, but those guys are keeping their teams in games.
An early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL.
If you’re coming here looking for picks, that’s not what this is. We’ll get to those later in the week.
This right here is an early betting preview of the upcoming action in the NFL, with a first impression of each game and betting line, with a few trends and hints sprinkled in. Sometimes, bettors can overthink things and talk themselves out of making the right pick. So these are just baseline thoughts before we take a deeper dive into the numbers later in the week.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from Tipico Sportsbook and likely to change after this is published.
Sportsbooks give money away. It’s not a secret. We know this to be a key part of their businesses model: free bets to attract new customers.
However, one sportsbook is taking that tactic to a new level this NFL season, giving money back to existing customers for bets that haven’t even settled.
One week after determining the Dallas Cowboys were done just one game into the season and paying out win total under bettors, PointsBet Sportsbook is declaring Russell Wilson’s MVP campaign cooked. And apparently, the book feels bad for people who bet on Wilson to win, because it’s giving them all free bets — whether they placed the bet at PointsBet or not!
Did you bet Wilson MVP on another platform? If you DM your betslip to us with your PointsBet email + state and the word ‘Wilson’ we will give you a Free Bet too!
OK, so maybe there’s a business reason for giving these free bets away. It could end up being worth whatever losses the book takes depending on how many customers it can poach away from other sportsbooks. And I’m guessing if there was a large enough bet out there on either scenario, PointsBet would just let it ride.
But make no mistake, there’s still a little risk in both situations. The Cowboys could still clinch their over at 10.5 games — they just upended the Bengals on Sunday in their first game without Dak Prescott. And it’s possible Wilson figures it out in Denver too. His numbers aren’t even that bad as they are; 559 yards, two touchdowns and one interception through two games with 15 more to really get going. His +3000 odds to win at Tipico are tied for 11th shortest.
If those scenarios were to happen, however unlikely, PointsBet is going to take double losses, having paid people who would’ve loss in the Cowboys case, or giving extra money to people who won in Wilson’s case — especially if the free bets result in more winning. But hey, it’s not a bad way to build customer loyalty in a very competitive field. More free money, please.
Making a case for and against some of the top MVP candidates.
Below is a list of 11 players, broken up by favorites, sleepers and long shots, of which I’m almost 100% positive next season’s MVP will be chosen from.
Why am I so confident? Because eight of the 11 players are some of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and quarterbacks almost always win the award — try 14 of the last 15 years.
Of course the possibility exists that a quarterback not listed below emerges from the crop to claim the award, but I’m not betting on it. The players below are in situations ready-made for MVP campaigns. It all comes down to which can best make it happen.
This isn’t me picking an MVP (I like Joe Burrow), this is me laying out why each guy will and won’t win the award. Odds are from Tipico Sportsbook.
As the NFL season is almost upon us, sportsbooks have opened their futures for the season, which includes their 2022 NFL MVP odds.
Our friends at Tipico Sportsbook have recently released their 2022 NFL MVP odds, with multiple Tigers appearing on the list. While many of these former Clemson players are by no means favorites, there are still a good bit more than you’d expect to be available on the list.
The NFL MVP award truly is a quarterback award, so it is interesting to see where a couple of former Clemson quarterback’s odds ended up on this list.
From Trevor Lawrence to Travis Etienne, here are all the Tigers with NFL MVP odds on Tipico Sportsbook:
With 50 days until the NFL’s opening kickoff between the Bills and Rams on Sept. 8, I decided to look for some 50-1 betting odds for the 2022 season with sneaky value.
Browsing through the futures on Tipico Sportsbook, MVP immediately jumped out to me because of one player: Cooper Kupp. To be clear, my personal favorite bet for MVP is Joe Burrow at +1200, but Kupp and a couple other non-quarterbacks have interesting cases at +5000.
The MVP of Super Bowl LVI, Kupp finished last season third in regular-season voting behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. He returns to a similar situation in Los Angeles, where the Rams didn’t suffer any dramatic losses to their offense (he was putting up goofy numbers even before Odell Beckham joined). Yet, his 50-1 odds are long relative to the other finalists.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
That’s for good reason: a wide receiver has never won MVP. Kupp put together one of the greatest seasons in NFL history, completing the receptions-yards-touchdowns triple-crown, and it still wasn’t enough to win. Odds of him putting together a similar season are probably longer than his MVP odds.
However, if the 29-year-old were somehow able to repeat, he’d likely have a greater chance at claiming the award than in 2021. He’ll have greater chemistry with Matthew Stafford after a year together. Also, I don’t think people realized his true value until the playoffs, when the difference he made was on full display. With a Super Bowl MVP to his name, voters will likely be more open to giving him consideration this year, especially if the league’s quarterbacks don’t continue to put up record-breaking numbers.
Another non-quarterback with 50-1 odds is Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. It’s been 10 years since the last running back won the award — Adrian Peterson in 2012 — however Taylor is set up to have a monster season this year.
Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
A runner-up to Kupp for 2021 Offensive Player of the Year, Taylor led the league in rushing yards and touchdowns, averaging over 100 yards per game. And at 23 years old, his best might still be ahead of him. The Colts will go as he goes, and Matt Ryan replacing the erratic Carson Wentz at quarterback could potentially make Taylor’s job a little easier. Plus, there’s still room for him to improve as a pass catcher.
In the same division, Derrick Henry, the 2020 Offensive Player of the Year, also has 50-1 odds. An injury that sidelined Henry for nine games last season is a bit concerning, as his mileage is beginning to pile up. But you can’t argue with the results when he’s on the field.
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Even with all the missed time, Henry finished the season top 10 in rushing yards and touchdowns. His 117 yards per game average led the league. If he stays healthy, he could potentially find himself in the convo for MVP. Especially after the Tennessee Titans traded A.J. Brown in the offseason, which boosts the value of everyone remaining.
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Maybe all the hate would be silenced if his name is mentioned in the same breath as “NFL MVP”. Do you buy it?
[autotag]Tua Tagovailoa[/autotag] is about to enter his third season as an NFL quarterback after being drafted No. 5 overall by the Miami Dolphins in the 2020 draft. The two seasons he has spent in the league have been anything but preferable for the former Alabama star.
Despite his stats appearing to be average, Tagovailoa has been on the receiving end of nation-wide criticism from fans and members of the media.
In year No. 3, things are expected to change. The Dolphins brought in an offensive-minded head coach in Mike McDaniel and managed to acquire some major star power on the offensive side of the ball with players like wide receiver Tyreek Hill and offensive tackle Terron Armstead.
Adam Schein of NFL.com states that Tagovailoa is the fourth-best dark horse candidate to win NFL MVP.
“My guy Tua is primed for a breakout Year 3. Tyreek Hill is the most explosive wide receiver in the game; putting him in the same receiving corps as Jaylen Waddle is borderline illegal. And I loved the other moves Miami made to prop up the young QB, adding LT Terron Armstead, WR Cedrick Wilson and RBs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel. With run-game wizard Mike McDaniel calling plays as the Dolphins’ new head coach? Perfection.
“Also, I really like Tua as a player. I’m on board. He was great in college, and he’s been better than most people will lead you to believe in the NFL, as evidenced by his 13-8 record as a starter. It’s about availability, not ability. If Tua stays healthy, I could see him leading the Dolphins to an 11-6 playoff season. And here’s the key: I don’t think he will be a hood ornament on the ride to the postseason. Tua is going to be the engine for Miami’s success.”
Roll Tide Wire will continue to cover Tua Tagovailoa and other former Alabama players in the NFL.
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A look at the top betting candidates to win next year’s MVP award.
The 2021 NFL season is over and the awards have been given. Team now are preparing for the 2022 season as they look forward to free agency and the draft. Likewise, we can look ahead and make predictions about who will be next year’s Most Valuable Player. Aaron Rodgers won the award this past season.
Super Bowl Weekend is here and we begin with the annual NFL Honors that will be held just a few short miles from SoFi Stadium on Thursday night.
Super Bowl Weekend is here and we begin with the annual NFL Honors that will be held just a few short miles from SoFi Stadium on Thursday night.
Keegan-Michael Key will host the awards and we will see the best of the best in the NFL from the 2021 season. Some of the awards that will be handed out are the NFL MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year (Offensive & Defensive) as well as the announcement of the 2022 NFL Hall of Fame inductees.
This will be a night to remember before the Super Bowl on Sunday, here is everything you need to know to watch and stream the action.
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