Tag: nfl mock draft 2021

Mock draft 4.0: Exit, light… enter, night.

The 2021 NFL draft is right around the corner, and here’s how Doug Farrar sees the first round playing out in his final mock.

You may ask yourself why my final mock draft of 2021 leads with a Metallica reference. Well, besides the fact that any opportunity to slip Metallica into any article is a can’t-miss win, there is an element to the above “Enter Sandman” lyric that becomes the story as we get ready for the draft to actually begin. The light in question was the pre-draft process — even in this weird and unpresented year of COVID opt-outs, no scouting combine, and Zoom pressers and pro days when there used to be more boots on the ground, teams were putting their draft boards together and trying to figure out which players best fit their paradigms.

Now, the rubber meets the road, and enter, night. No more daylight here, and the draft dream or nightmare you’re about to encounter as a team depends entirely on the due diligence you did along the way, and the good fortune you may or may not have as your favorite guys are on the board (or not) when it’s your time to pick.

Come Thursday at 8:00 p.m. EST, there are no more big boards, no more first-round mock drafts, no more hypotheticals. Just a bunch of people in 32 team facilities trying to make sense of it all. And with my final mock of the 2021 pre-draft process, that’s what I’m trying to do: This is what I think teams will do, based on scheme, need, talent, and just a hint of randomness.

As Levi Damien, my Wire colleague on the Raiders side, said…

Sad but true, indeed.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions). 

NFL Draft 2021: How Many Alabama Players Will Be Drafted In the First Round?

NFL Draft 2021: How many Alabama players will end up being drafted in the first round? What are the over/under odds?

NFL Draft 2021: How many Alabama players will end up being drafted in the first round? What are the over/under odds? 

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NFL Draft 2021: Alabama

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews | @PeteFiutak

It’s really, really, really, really hard to get multiple players taken in the first round of an NFL Draft, much less three, or five, or six.

LSU had 14 players drafted last year – one at every non-kicking position including long snapper – and had five selected in the first round.

Ohio State had five players taken in the first round in 2016, and Oklahoma had four selected in the first of the 2010 draft.

The over/under on how many Alabama players would go in the first round last year was 5.5, and four – Tua Tagovailoa, Jedrick Wills, Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy – were selected. It wasn’t all all that close on the over, with Xavier McKinney going with the fourth pick in the second, and the sixth Tide player – Trevon Diggs – not going until the 51st overall pick.

In other words, it’s almost impossible to get past 5.5 going in the first round no matter how good the team was the year before.

Alabama has never had more than four players taken in the first round, much less five, and this year, the oddsmaker types are setting the line at 5.5.

Even for a historically great 2020 Alabama team, good luck with that.

[lawrence-related id=434326]

Just like last year with the four that ended up being taken, Alabama has a few sure things to set a good base.

There’s no question that – in some order – QB Mac Jones, CB Patrick Surtain, WR DeVonta Smith and WR Jaylen Waddle will be selected in the first round. Now, work backwards.

OT Alex Leatherwood should be a relatively early pick, but it’ll take a bit of a shocker for him to go in the first, and the same goes for C Landon Dickerson, LB Dylan Moses and OG Deonte Brown. All of them will go after the top 32.

You still need two more to get past 5.5 Bama players selected.

Just like McKinney was the wild-card last year to get to five, Najee Harris is the one who could get Bama past four.

First, take another moment and realize the historic nature of even thinking this is possible – again, Alabama has never had five players selected in the first round.

Harris could absolutely go on Day One – he’s one of the 32 best players in this thing – but running back is so devalued now in the draft process, and Clemson’s Travis Etienne could be the first and only back off the board.

But let’s say it happens. Let’s say Harris is taken somewhere between the 23 to the Jets to the 32 with Tampa Bay. That’s still five, and you need six to go over, so …

How Many Alabama Players Will Be Drafted In the First Round?

Five.

I’ll call it that Harris makes it five Alabama players going in the first round, but even that’s a bit of a reach. So let’s say I’m right, then it comes down to …

DT Christian Barmore.

I think he’s easily the best defensive tackle in a weak draft for the position, and there’s certainly a chance that someone thinks there’s value in drafting him a wee bit early to take the best one off the board, but if it happens, it’ll come late.

And that’s where the sweating will come in.

Barmore is the exact right guy for Tampa Bay to take at the 32 to add more to the defensive interior, but the defending Super Bowl champion will have an abundance of great prospects to choose from.

So it comes down to this. Do you like Etienne to go before Harris? If so, assume under on the 5.5.

Do you believe in historical anomalies with Bama not only getting to five in the first round, but six?

The value might not be there on the under, but you’re asking for something wild to get the over. If it happens, tip your cap, and marvel in the greatness of the talent on that amazing 2020 team.

Prediction: Under
BetMGM line: 5.5, Over +130, Under -165
2021 Alabama Schedule Analysis

CFN 2021 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings
from the college perspective …
QB | RB | WR | TE | OT | OG & C
DE & Edge | DT | LB | CB | Safeties
Greatest Draft Picks For Each College
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | SEC
32 Greatest Draft Picks of All-Time

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2021 NFL Mock Draft, Team Needs: College Football Perspective, Early April

The early April version of the 2021 NFL Mock Draft from the college football perspective, along with the main needs for every team.

The early April version of the 2021 NFL Mock Draft from the college football perspective, along with the main needs for every team.  

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews

Less than a month away from the 2021 NFL Draft starting on April 29th,  here’s the best-looking fit for each team along with the realistic other options from the college perspective.

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2021 NFL Mock Draft, Team Needs: Early April

– Contact/Follow @PeteFiutak

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

April Mock Draft Call: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

Other Realistic Options: Nothing. Done.

Biggest Team Need: Quarterback

Theres no messing around here. Of course there’s a chance that one of the other top quarterback options turns out to be better than Lawrence, but you can’t be the team that passes up on a talent like this.

2. New York Jets

April Mock Draft Call: QB Zach Wilson, BYU

Other Realistic Options: Trade down; QB Mac Jones, Alabama

Biggest Team Need: Defensive End

It’s not that Sam Darnold can’t potentially be good, but Wilson is the it prospect who could be special – and the Jets desperately need special. The big-time arm and accuracy are too good to ignore.

3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami from Houston)

April Mock Draft Call: QB Mac Jones, Alabama

Other Realistic Options: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State; QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Biggest Team Need: Defensive Back

The smarter call would be to go with the Hall of Fame-caliber OT talent in Oregon’s Penei Sewell, but you don’t give up the future unless you have a quarterback in mind. Lance and Fields would be the shot for the stars, but Jones is going to be rock-solid.

4. Atlanta Falcons

April Mock Draft Call: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State

Other Realistic Options: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State; TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

Biggest Team Need: Defensive Back

Here’s the problem. Lance is the perfect pick for the future of the franchise. Matt Ryan is fine for the next year or two, and Lance needs time and seasoning – maybe. However, Atlanta would be passing up superstar targets to take a passer who doesn’t help them now.

5. Cincinnati Bengals

April Mock Draft Call: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon

Other Realistic Options: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU; WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama; TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

Biggest Team Need: Offensive Tackle

It seems like the world is trying to force a pick to happen by wanting to give Joe Burrow a big-time wide receiver, especially if it’s Chase. But remember, mock drafts are just projections – we’re in the misinformation season. Cincinnati needs an offensive tackle, and Sewell is the second best football player in a draft of football players.

6. Miami Dolphins (from Philadelphia)

April Mock Draft Call: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida

Other Realistic Options: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama; WR Ja’Marr Chase

Biggest Team Need: Pass Rusher

Again, remember, the world likes to try making picks happen, and Smith back with Tua Tagovailoa is fun. Just as fun would be to give the young franchise quarterback a Pro Bowl tight end with freakish talent.

7. Detroit Lions

April Mock Draft Call: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU

Other Realistic Options: Trade down; WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama

Biggest Team Need: Wide Receiver

Free agency wasn’t kind to the Lions. They brought in a few options, but they need a No. 1 guy. Don’t be shocked if they have their pick of the star prospects to give Jared Goff some help.

8. Carolina Panthers

April Mock Draft Call: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State

Other Realistic Options: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State; WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama

Biggest Team Need: Quarterback

There’s a good chance the Panthers will look to get active and trade up for a quarterback, but they should be able to stand pat and still get a franchise talent to build around.

9. Denver Broncos

April Mock Draft Call: OT/OG Rashawn Slater, Northwestern

Other Realistic Options: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama; WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama

Biggest Team Need: Offensive Line

Can the Broncos really pass on one of the top receivers if one is still on the board – especially if it’s Smith? The Broncos really, really need offensive linemen, but can they sell that to the fan base? Penei Sewell would be the dream here, but the versatile Slater is an almost perfect pick in every way for what they need. However, it’ll be an impossible PR problem if they pass on …

10. Dallas Cowboys

April Mock Draft Call: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama

Other Realistic Options: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama; CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech

Biggest Team Need: Defensive Back

The Cowboys have to get a defensive back, and all of the big-time prospects should still be there on the board. They don’t need a wide receiver, but if Smith or Ja’Marr Chase slides down this far, they’re not letting either one go. Don’t be stunned if Smith slides a wee bit over concerns about how slim he is.

2021 NFL Mock Draft: January
Picks 11-20 | Picks 21-32

NEXT: 2021 NFL Mock Draft: 11-20

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If you think Rashawn Slater’s not an NFL offensive tackle, here’s why you’re wrong

There are those who believe that Northwestern left tackle Rashawn Slater should be an NFL guard. Here’s why they’re wrong.

When projecting college players to the NFL, one of the most obviously important aspects of that process is the understanding of scheme and positional fit at the next level. One of the more interesting parts of that process is the number of college offensive tackles who have been asked to kick inside to guard when they go pro.

Whether due to height, arm length, movement and agility concerns, or simple team need, it’s happened a lot in the last decade. Zack Martin, Joel Bitonio, Brandon Scherff, Kelechi Osemele, and Jamon Brown are among the tackle-to-guard converts who have played levels from starter to All-Pro over the last decade. Mitch Morse even converted from left tackle at Missouri to center for the Chiefs, who selected him in the second round of the 2015 draft, and Morse has played at a high level for both Kansas City and Buffalo.

That said, it’s not always sensible to move a guy around. With the retirement of left tackle Anthony Castonzo, the Colts are reportedly toying with the idea of moving left guard Quenton Nelson outside. Which seems insane to me. Nelson is the best guard of his era, and one of the best I’ve ever scouted. I had Nelson as the best overall player in the 2018 draft class ahead of everyone from Lamar Jackson to Josh Allen to Baker Mayfield to Nick Chubb, and if I had to do it all over again in 2021, I’d still give Nelson the nod among all players in that class.

You can draft a left tackle (I had the Colts taking Virginia Tech’s Christian Darrisaw 21st overall in my most recent mock draft). You can sign a free-agent left tackle, and the Colts have the cap space to do just that. But you don’t take the best player at his position in at least the last decade and start messing with his natural home. At least, that’s how I see it.

How I also see it is that just because a player doesn’t fit your physical parameters for the position doesn’t mean he can’t play the position at an exceedingly high level, no matter the circumstance. What this is all leading up to is the professional future of Northwestern offensive lineman Rashawn Slater.

At 6-foot-4 and 314 pounds, Slater (literally) falls short when it comes to the preferred height for NFL left tackles, and there are arm length concerns as well. That’s led a lot of people to automatically kick Slater inside to guard in their heads once he hits the NFL, but that’s not at all how I would project Slater’s future. Especially after the first time I watched Slater deal with Ohio State’s Chase Young in 2019. Slater opted out of the 2020 season, but after this game, you could say he’d done all he needed to do.

And I’m not alone.

Mr. Brugler is absolutely on the nose here. Longtime offensive line performance coach Duke Manyweather, who I worked with on Bleacher Report’s NFL1000 project in 2017 and 2018, and has worked with Slater himself, had this to say on the subject.

“Rashawn is a tackle, I don’t care what anyone says,” Manyweather told Brugler last October. “At some point, teams have to realize they’re missing badly on offensive linemen because they’re looking at bull[bleep] things that are ancillary. Don’t get me wrong, things like length are important when trying to make up the gap. But Rashawn understands technique and body position extremely well. I’ve been doing this a long time and rarely miss on this – he’s a tackle.”

Against Ohio State and specifically Chase Young in the sixth game of the 2019 season, Slater never let his play slip at all despite the fact that the Wildcats took a 52-3 butt-kicking from the Buckeyes. Slater was powerful, technically sound, and mean off the snap from start to finish, and when Young (the 2020 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year) faced Slater, he was able to accomplish very little. In fact, there were times when Slater physically dominated Young, which is something a lot of NFL tackles found exceedingly difficult to do. Slater allowed no sacks, no quarterback hits, and two quarterback hurries in the game, and no sacks, one quarterback hit, and four quarterback hurries in 355 pass-blocking snaps in the 2019 season.

“You know that NBA clip with Matt Barnes and the in-bounds play where Kobe (Bryant) doesn’t blink? That’s Rashawn. He doesn’t blink,” Manyweather concluded when asked about the Young matchup. “Him and Chase were matched up 16, 17 times throughout the game, and Rashawn won almost every rep because he was so clear on his strong suits and his technique. I saw a calm, consistent player.”

So did I, which is why I sent Slater to the Chargers with the 13th overall pick in my mock draft. Let’s go to the tape and take a detailed look at the traits and attributes of Rashawn Slater, Professional Left Tackle.

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NFL Draft 2021: Doug Farrar’s Mock Draft 1.0 — No trades, but quite a few surprises

In Doug Farrar’s first mock draft of 2021, there aren’t any trades, but there are a lot of players placed highly for interesting reasons.

When you’re doing your first mock draft of the year, and you know you’re going to do a lot more of them, it’s good to take different approaches for each one. There will be the “What I would do” mock, the “What I think teams will do” mock, the “Some team trades for Deshaun Watson for 12 first-rounders and completely upsets the draft order” mock… you get the idea.

For my first mock of 2021, I wanted to keep the teams static without any blockbuster trades, and get a sense of team fit, team needs, and where I align the 32 players in this mock in the big board in my head. So, this mock is about half what I think teams should or would do, and half where I think each player stacks up from the top, with positional value an obvious constraint.

As far as surprises — you may notice that there are no running backs in my first round. This is primarily because I’m conflicted between what I consider to be the two top backs in this class — Alabama’s Najee Harris, and North Carolina’s Javonte Williams. Harris may be the more well-rounded player, but Williams runs with an effective violence I haven’t seen since peak Marshawn Lynch.

2021 NFL Draft: Why Javonte Williams should be your RB1 in this draft class

The question is: Would you take either guy in the first round? I often see Harris mocked to the Dolphins in the late first round. But if I’m running the Miami front office, and I have the choice between a great running back, and a receiver like Florida’s Kadarius Toney, who could immediately help Tua Tagovailoa with the timing and rhythm aspects of his game, I know where I’m going. I’m on Team Kadarius. And if I did take a running back in the first round, it would be Williams over Harris.

You may also notice that I have a “linebacker” — Notre Dame’s Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah — taken with the seventh overall pick. That may seem like an overdraft if you haven’t watched Owusu-Koramoah’s tape and you just go by the linebacker designation. After all, NFL teams played more dime than base in 2020, per Sports Info Solutions. But as was the case for Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons in 2020, Owusu-Koramoah transcends any positional designation. He is the very model of the modern versatile defender. Simmons was taken eighth overall by the Cardinals, and I think Owusu-Koramoah could be similarly coveted.

I also haven’t seen TCU safety Trevon Moehrig mocked as high as I have him (12th overall to the 49ers), but the more I watched his tape, the more I came away believing that this is a do-it-all guy as a crucial position. I am not concerned with dings about his deep-third coverage ability; I think if you want him back there, he’ll be just fine. But that he can also roll up to linebacker depth and shred the living daylights out of whoever has the ball? That’s what you want in a modern defensive back.

With all that said, here’s my first mock of 2021. As always, any criticism should be structured in ad hominem form and misspelled as often as possible.

(All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions).