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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
We’re at the half-pole of the season, and this is the beginning of the time when teams start to realize – good or bad – what direction their season is heading.
There are plenty of good matchups, despite six teams being on bye weeks, and we’ve decided to pick one quarterback we think is being pumped out too high and a pair of running backs and receivers who will make their offenses look good.
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Five wagers anyone should be comfortable making ahead of Week 9 action.
We hit the first big week of the byes with six teams resting up for the stretch run. Of the games remaining from which to choose, we go with a time-honored tradition of taking the bets those making the odds want us (sort of) to take.
This week, we take the two smallest Over/Under numbers, the Over in both, and three road favorites that would have to lay more than twice as many points if they were playing at home.
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Wagers to make from across the NFL’s Week 9.
The NFL trade deadline has changed the landscape as new players of some repute are getting fast-tracked on a sub-package of an offense it will take them a month to fully learn.
Will the big faces in new places make a difference? Probably not in a big way this week, but, by next week, plans will be in place to expand that player’s role in an offense or defense to start cashing in on the trade deadline investment.
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This is a tough bet to make because the Eagles are such gigantic favorites (13.5 points at -115 Eagles, -105 Texans). Houston is brutal, but have only been beaten by enough to meet this number once. That said, the Eagles are bullies, and the Texans are schoolyard fodder. Take the Eagles and lay 13.5 points (-115).
This has the stink of a classic “trap game.” The Chargers are capable of being trucked (see their losses to Jacksonville and Seattle). With their roster, I’m shocked the Falcons aren’t in line for the first pick in the 2023 draft – yet they’re alone in first place in the NFC South. The Chargers are tight road favorites (3.5 points at -103 Chargers, -117 Falcons). They’re daring you to bet on the Chargers. I’m getting my Kool-Aid glass out again. Take the Chargers and lay 3.5 points (-103).
I’m not a fan of either team, where backup quarterbacks are king. It’s not exactly a classic Brady-Manning matchup this time around, but I’m a sucker for an Over/Under too low (39 points at -112 Over, -108 Under). With two young QBs looking to prove themselves, all you need is one tragic mistake for a defensive TD or a short field to hit this pee-wee number. Take the Over (-112).
The Bills laid down and beat Aaron Rodgers by 10. I hate massive spreads, and this one is big (12.5 points at -108 Bills, -112 Jets). I just can’t find a bet among the three offered to go away from Buffalo. I guess that makes me an associate of the Bills Mafia. Take the Bills and lay 12.5 points (-108).
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The Panthers’ fire sale for the future is in its infancy. The Bengals were humbled Monday night. Two teams with shockingly different expectations for 2022, the Bengals are strong road favorites (7.5 points at -117 Panthers, -103 Bengals). This line is daring you to take the Bengals. I don’t believe it will drop below seven points. It shouldn’t. Enjoy the low number for what should be a relatively achievable number. Take the Bengals and lay 7.5 points (-103).
The Vikings are 6-1 and the masters of one-score games (five straight and all wins). The Commanders have won three straight but remain home underdogs (3.5 points at -103 Vikings, -117 Commanders). Minnesota has allowed teams to hang with them, but put them away in the end. That trend continues. Take the Vikings and lay 3.5 points (-103).
The Dolphins were buyers at the trade deadline. The Bears were sellers who gutted the defense with the move of Roquan Smith. Miami is a solid road favorite (4.5 points at -110 for both teams). The additions both teams made likely won’t make a big impact. Smith being gone much more than likely will. Take the Dolphins and lay 4.5 points (-110).
Both teams have won just two games, and they’ve already dug holes deep enough to torpedo their current seasons. The Jaguars have talent on defense, but the Raiders have the better roster. The Raiders are modest road favorites (2 points at -112 Raiders, -108 Jaguars). Unless that Jags can stop Josh Jacobs, I’m willing to give away less than a field goal. Take the Raiders and lay 2 points (-112).
The Packers are reeling and could implode with a loss here. Detroit’s defense is so awful that the Packers can likely slide as a mild road favorite (3.5 points at -112 Packers, -108 Lions). With the Dallas, Tennessee and Philadelphia coming up on Green Bay’s schedule after this one, this is the must-win the Packers need to remain afloat. Take the Packers and lay 3.5 points (-112).
The Seahawks are alone atop the NFC West that they were universally projected to finish last. I’m still not buying. The Cardinals are an embarrassingly low home favorite (2 points at -110 for both teams). The Cardinals at home is hard to lay off. Take the Cardinals and lay 2 points (-110).
When you’ve been shocked by the ineptitude of the presumptive top two candidates to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, you have one out on making a pick – the Over/Under (42.5 points -112 Over, -108 Under). Both defenses are capable of shutting the other down. Both offenses have the yet-to-be-consistent ability to put up point. This O/U number is simply too low. Take the Over (-112).
I hate this point spread (12.5 points for -110 Titans and Chiefs). If Derrick Henry can control the pace of play, this number is way to high. If the Titans fall behind by double digits in the first half, they won’t have an answer. I see the latter happening. Take the Chiefs and lay 12.5 points (-110)
If not for implosion, the Ravens should be 7-1, at worst. They’re legit. The Saints are a different team at home, which is why the Ravens are mild favorites (3 points at -101 Ravens, -120 Saints). The Saints defense isn’t ready for what Lamar Jackson brings to aggressive attacking fronts. Take the Ravens and lay 3 points (-101).
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