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The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
More than a month into the 2022 season, we’re starting to see the separation between the good and bad teams, and their strengths and weaknesses are becoming defined. We’re starting to see what roles players have carved out in their offenses and what defenses are vulnerable.
This week we have one quarterback, two running backs and two wide receivers from which to chose.
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These wagers will have you stacking cash at the pay window.
As has come to be expected, we have a mixed bag of picks on the last week when fantasy rosters include players from 32 teams – make sure to set your roster back a player or two before you get up on Sundays.
I always look for a moneyline pick, and we have one this week – along with three playoff-team beatdowns of three non-playoff teams and a primetime game where fireworks can be expected.
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The smartest wagers to make for NFL Week 5 action.
The oddsmakers are starting the see the separation between the good teams and the bad teams of 2022, and it is being reflected in the point spreads.
Of the 16 games on the Week 5 slate – the last week that all teams are on equal footing with bye weeks coming – seven of them have one team favored by 6.5 points or more. Of those, four are division games where both teams have an innate familiarity with each other.
The question bettors have to ask themselves is whether or not the favorites are giving away enough points or giving away too many?
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Thursday night games are always a mixed bag. You never know if the short week is going to result on offenses controlling the defenses or a low-scoring slugfest between teams with lingering injuries from the previous week. The Over/Under seems low (42.5 points at -105 Over, -115 Under). However, the Broncos have gone over this point once, and the Colts haven’t hit that number yet. Take the Under (-115).
The Packers don’t have great receivers, and the Giants have highly paid receivers doing nothing. The Packers are a prohibitive “home” favorite (8.5 points at -112 Giants, -108 Packers) in London. I’m not a big fan of laying a ton of points, but I just don’t think the Giants will muster 17 points. At that number, Green Bay should score enough to cover. Take the Packers and lay 8.5 points (-108).
The Vikings are a solid home favorite (6.5 points at +100 Bears, -125 Vikings). Minnesota struggled against Chicago prior to last year – when they swept the Bears. Minnesota has struggled to win games but found ways. The Bears can’t generate the offense required to run with Minnesota in their house. Take the Vikings and lay the 6.5 points (-125).
I didn’t give up on the Titans when they started 0-2 and didn’t buy in when Carson Wentz started the season on fire. Both teams have come back. Tennessee is a modest favorite (2.5 points at -115 Titans, -105 Commanders). Washington is the type of team that allows an opponent to dictate pace, and Derrick Henry is a tough bone to chew. Take the Titans and lay 2.5 points (-115).
I’m actually leaning on the Lions winning this game as a road underdog, which is why the point spread is intriguing (3.5 points at -125 Lions, +100 Patriots). Those making the line don’t have confidence in a Patriots team with two dinged QBs – and neither do I. Take the Lions and 3.5 points (-125).
The Bills are massive favorites and a beating of epic proportions is being presented. However, the Over/Under (46.5 points at -110 for both) doesn’t take into account that the Steelers aren’t awful on offense and Buffalo can be had defensively. I believe the Bills are going to score 34. If the Steelers can provide 13, we’re good. Take the Over (-110).
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I’ve been touting the Jags as a team with the offense to make a jump up the power rankings. However, even against the Texans, I’m not willing to give the Jags the points they’re assigned (7.5 points at -125 Texans, +100 Jaguars). They coming up and the Texans are nondescript, but 7.5 points? Too rich for my blood. Take the Texans plus 7.5 points (-125).
I look for a underdog or two to take every week on the moneyline. There weren’t many contenders because of the fat spreads on so many games. The Chargers are a road favorite heading east for 1 p.m. game. They are the better overall team, but the Browns protect the yard in this one. Take the Browns on the moneyline (+115).
Seattle is once again a high-point pick (46.5 points at -108 Over, -112 Under), and I don’t see it. Didn’t see it last week when the Seahawks and Lions combined for 93 points and still don’t. Take the Under (-112).
The Buccaneers finally showed they could score in the first half (because they had to) and the Falcons are far less daunting an opponent than the Chiefs. The Bucs are solid favorites (9.5 points at -110 for both). We haven’t seen the Buccaneers beat down somebody yet. If it isn’t this week, it may not be coming. Take the Buccaneers and lay 9.5 points (-110).
In most cases, when a starting QB goes down, hope is lost. The Dolphins invested in Teddy Bridgewater to avoid that. The Dolphins are a solid road favorite (3.5 points at -103 Dolphins, -117 Jets). The number tells you not to bet Miami, but I am willing. Take the Dolphins and lay 3.5 points (-103).
The 49ers aren’t a Super Bowl winner, but they dominate when they force teams to play their style. They’re a big road favorite (6.5 points at -103 49ers, -117 Panthers). This disparity says the 49ers won’t cover. I’m thinking low-to-mid double digits. Take the 49ers and lay 6.5 points (-103).
The Eagles are the last unbeaten team and are heading to play a Cardinals team that hasn’t put together a full game yet this season. Philly is a strong road favorite (5.5 points at -108 Eagles, -112 Cardinals). While I think the Eagles will find a way to win, I’m not willing to give away that many points for a team that has legitimate playoff aspirations. Take the Cardinals plus 5.5 points (-112).
I’m not ready to give up on the Rams, although they have given reason to be abandoned. They remain a solid home favorite (5.5 points at -105 Cowboys, -115 Rams). The Cooper Rush saga has been a cute story, but Aaron Donald makes the difference in the decision when Dak Prescott comes back. Dallas didn’t put Prescott on four-week Injured Reserve but don’t want him making his comeback here. Take the Rams and lay 5.5 points (-115).
For divisional games, this rivalry is known for its lopsided smackdowns. The Ravens are favored (3.5 points at -117 Bengals, -103 Ravens). The two most recent beatings saw the Bengals outscore the Ravens 82-38. I’m picking the Ravens to win, but I like the chances getting 3-and-a-hook with the Bengals. Take the Bengals and 3.5 points.
The Raiders saved their season last week, but now head into Kansas City – where blowouts have been the norm. Vegas is going to try to run with the Chiefs, and the Over/Under on this game is the highest of Week 5 (50.5 points at -115 Over, -105 Under). At some point, this game is going to turn into a track meet – and it might take a defensive TD to get it started. Take the Over (-115).
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