The Vikings moving up to select J.J. McCarthy is an iffy move at best.
J.J. McCarthy is a good quarterback. If you trade up into the top 10 of a draft to get a good quarterback, as opposed to a field-tilting quarterback, you had better hope everything goes well around him. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has the playbook and the weapons to make the most of McCarthy, but the low ceiling shows up all over his tape. This seems like a misunderstanding of his NFL potential, and that’s why the grade is so low.
Jonathan James McCarthy was a five-star prospect out of Nazareth Academy in Le Grange Park Illinois, and later the IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida. He chose Michigan over several major programs, and became the highest-ranked recruit Jim Harbaugh ever signed.
In his second season as the Wolverines’ starting quarterback, McCarthy was a big part of Michigan’s national championship journey. He completed 240 of 333 passes for 2,991 yards, 22 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 116.6.
As a deep passer, McCarthy completed 25 passes of 20 or more air yards on 46 attempts for 706 yards, 10 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 130.0. When pressured, McCarthy completed 52 of 82 passes for 780 yards, eight touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.8. As a runner, McCarthy gained 340 yards and scored three touchdowns on 39 carries.
PLUSES
— Outstanding downfield ball placement when he does turn it loose and has open windows.
— Plus athlete who can win on designed runs.
— Has the capacity to throw his receivers open.
— Can work off-schedule to a point.
MINUSES
— Too often late to diagnose and turn it loose; needs to speed up his clock for any kind of NFL success.
— Hospital balls can be a problem.
— Must develop a greater understanding of advanced coverage concepts.
— Won’t see the kinds of designed openings he feasted on with Michigan.
McCarthy’s tape doesn’t really blow you away, but he does just about everything well enough, and consistently enough, where you can see the path to a starting quarterback in the NFL. Given his success under Jim Harbaugh, you know that he understands pro concepts to an elevated degree. If you’re looking for a second-round game executive (H/T to Nate Tice of The Athletic for that term; it’s a great way to describe a plus-level game manager) in the Kirk Cousins mold, this could be your guy.
When it comes to McCarthy’s NFL transition, the real question is: When the modern game is more about creating and preventing explosive plays than anything else, how does a game executive fit into that, and how do McCarthy’s issues with throwing deep into tight windows limit him and his ultimate ceiling? Cousins, who is the obvious comp and a fourth-round pick in 2012 out of Michigan State, eventually figured out how to be a great deep thrower, but there are 10 guys for every Kirk Cousins with a similar athletic profile who never did. McCarthy is more of a gamble than a safe pick in that regard.
