NFL Draft colleges – Syndication Server

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How good are all the NFL teams at finding value? What are the best value positions? Which colleges are strongest? Four years after the 2016 NFL Draft, how did it really all shake out?

NFL Draft: Who Did The Best Job In 2016?

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

So why is the 2016 NFL Draft such a big deal? That was four years ago, and now all of those draft picks who survived and advances are free agents.

It’s everything to an NFL team to find the best value possible – rookie contracts can change a franchise. It’s not all that expensive anymore to sign a first round talent, but come up with real, live players in the later rounds and the success usually follows.

Four years later – and with several of the top players dealing with the free agent market – which teams did the best job of finding value, and which ones struggled?

We go by the CFN NFL Draft Value Score, explained in way too much detail here.

Basically, the later the good draft pick, the better the score.

First round picks are going to be scored low mainly because it’s not all that hard to find a good player up top – at least it’s not supposed to be – and the value isn’t there like it is to get a good player at the same position in, say, the fourth round.

So which NFL teams did the best job of finding the value picks in 2016? The draft four years ago is supposed to be the foundation. How did it all go?

Not like you’d think it would have.

Value is about finding a steady starter late in the draft, and punters are usually the safest late picks possible. That’s fine, but you need the stars, too.

Rankings from the teams that came up with the best value, to the ones that got the least.

The overall draft pick is the first number, and the CFN Draft Value Score is the last one. The players are ranked from top value to the least.

1. Denver Broncos 157.50

219 S Will Parks Arizona 263.48
228 P Riley Dixon Syracuse 228.00
176 FB Andy Janovich Nebraska 189.75
144 OG Connor McGovern Missouri 186.75
98 S Justin Simmons Boston College 162.31
136 RB Devontae Booker Utah 142.38
63 DT Adam Gotsis Georgia Tech 83.67
26 QB Paxton Lynch Memphis 3.66

2. New York Jets 149

235 P Lac Edwards Sam Houston St 470.00
158 OT Brandon Shell South Carolina 219.72
83 OLB Jordan Jenkins Georgia 142.66
241 WR Charone Peake Clemson 120.50
118 CB Juston Burris NC State 66.38
20 OLB Darron Lee Ohio State 23.75
51 QB Christian Hackenberg Penn State 0.00

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3. Cincinnati Bengals 118.99

245 S Clayton Fejedelem Illinois 267.97
122 DT Andrew Billings Baylor 160.13
199 WR Cody Core Ole Miss 130.59
87 ILB Nick Vigil Utah State 123.70
55 WR Tyler Boyd Pitt 75.63
161 OG Christian Westerman Arizona State 45.28
24 CB William Jackson Houston 29.63

4. Philadelphia Eagles 112.30

233 S Jalen Mills LSU 298.53
164 OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai TCU 192.19
196 CB Blake Countess Auburn 125.56
153 RB Wendell Smallwood West Virginia 117.14
79 OG Isaac Seumalo Oregon State 102.45
251 ILB Joe Walker Oregon 58.83
2 QB Carson Wentz NDSU 3.70
240 DE Alex McCalister Florida 0.00

5. Atlanta Falcons 112.23

195 OG Wes Schweitzer San Jose State 249.84
115 OLB De’Vondre Campbell Minnesota 203.05
81 TE Austin Hooper Stanford 114.74
52 OLB Deion Jones LSU 85.99
17 S Keanu Neal Florida 19.76
238 WR Devin Fuller UCLA 0.00

6. Dallas Cowboys 105.31

135 QB Dak Prescott Mississippi State 277.71
189 CB Anthony Brown Purdue 265.78
212 S Kavon Frazier Central Michigan 152.38
67 DT Maliek Collins Nebraska 121.44
217 TE Rico Gathers Baylor 64.42
34 OLB Jaylon Smith Notre Dame 46.66
4 RB Ezekiel Elliott Ohio State 9.53
216 RB Darius Jackson Eastern Michigan 6.75
101 DE Charles Tapper Oklahoma 3.16

7. Green Bay Packers 105.12

131 LB Blake Martinez Stanford 241.53
137 DE Dean Lowry Northwestern 209.78
88 OLB Kyler Fackrell Utah State 96.25
163 WR Trevor Davis Cal 78.95
27 DT Kenny Clark UCLA 47.42
48 OT Jason Spriggs Indiana 33.75
200 OT Kyle Murphy Stanford 28.13

8. Minnesota Vikings 101.79

244 S Jayron Kearse Clemson 255.44
227 OLB Stephen Weatherly Vanderbilt 198.63
188 TE David Morgan UTSA 146.88
160 OLB Kentrell Brothers Missouri 130.00
54 CB Mackensie Alexander Clemson 54.84
23 WR Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss 24.80
121 OT Willie Beavers Western Michigan 3.78
180 WR Moritz Boehringer Germany (No College) 0.00

9. Kansas City Chiefs 93.77

165 WR Tyreek Hill West Alabama 389.25
126 WR Demarcus Robinson Florida 171.28
106 CB Eric Murray Minnesota 92.75
37 DT Chris Jones Mississippi State 60.03
203 DE Dadi Nicolas Virginia Tech 34.89
178 CB D.J. White Georgia Tech 30.59
74 CB KeiVarae Russell Notre Dame 24.28
162 QB Kevin Hogan Stanford 22.78
105 OG Parker Ehinger Cincinnati 18.05

10. Chicago Bears 92.05

150 RB Jordan Howard Indiana 213.28
113 ILB Nick Kwiatkowski West Virginia 139.48
185 S DeAndre Houston-Carson William & Mary 138.75
124 S Deon Bush Miami 120.13
56 OG Cody Whitehair Kansas State 113.60
72 DT Jonathan Bullard Florida 57.38
127 CB Deiondre Hall Northern Iowa 19.84
9 OLB Leonard Floyd Georgia 15.19
230 WR Daniel Braverman Western Michigan 10.78

NEXT: 2016 NFL Draft Value: Teams 11-20

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How good are all the NFL teams at finding value? What are the best value positions? Which colleges are strongest? We figure it out with the CFN Draft Value Formula.

NFL Draft: Who’s The Best At Finding Value?

– Contact/Follow @ColFootballNews & @PeteFiutak

Two years.

Four years on a rookie contract is the dream, but can you draft a guy who’ll start for your NFL team for just two seasons?

Forget about being a superstar or anything special. Set the bar at simply finding a regular starter. If you can hit that with any regularity, you win the draft.

That sounds easy, right? Nope, which is why we’re wondering …
How good are all the NFL general managers and team scouts when it comes to draft value?

While everyone loves to focus on the big calls in the first round that can make or break a franchise – like taking Mitchell Trubisky with the second overall pick in 2017 instead of Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson – that’s just the frosting on the cupcake. The real importance of this thing is being able to build up a base of talent to rely on.

Where’s the value in the NFL drafts over the years, and who did the best and worst jobs at finding it?

The goal here is to see 1) which NFL teams were best at finding value, 2) which colleges put out the most valuable NFL players, 3) which positions tend to provide the best value, and 4) is there really any value in drafting in the later rounds?

That last part matters when it comes to trades – more on that another time.

Here are the ground rules and theories here …

1. This has almost nothing to do with talent – it’s all about the value and timing of the picks.

Of course Mahomes is a better player than anyone taken in the entire 2017 draft, but he went with the 10th overall pick. You’re supposed to be able to nail that.

Mahomes is actually a bad example considering he’s a unicorn, but in general, you have to work to whiff on a first round pick. Finding a real, live starter after the 100th pick who can play for four years on a rookie contract is found gold.

For the purposes of this value exercise, it’s a much bigger deal for an NFL team to find a Dak Prescott in the fourth round than it is to take Jared Goff – even if the pick works out – with the No. 1 overall selection.

No matter where you pick a player, though …

2. All you can reasonably ask for out of a GM is to draft a two-year starter.

Again, it’s not really about the talent – this isn’t a ranking of how good these NFL players turned out to be.

If you dive into the history of the NFL draft, finding an All-Pro is random dumb luck – really, it is, and we’ll show why at the end of all the analysis that will come out over the upcoming weeks. Just find a player who’ll start for you for two to four years.

One important note – you don’t get credit for drafting a player who produced for someone else. The value of each of these picks is only counted while they were on the teams that drafted them.

Also, if a player is hurt or on the sidelines for a stretch, that hurts his value overall. It’s why there are a few outliers in the formula – like Mahomes – but Pro Bowls and All-Pro recognition are added into …

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3. The CFN Draft Value Formula

Again, this isn’t about talent. This is about what players turned into steady starters for the teams that drafted them. Find those guys to build around, and then go after the established stars for positions of need in free agency.

The formula is made up of …

– The overall pick. The later the pick, the higher the value. Anyone can pick in the first 50 and find a decent player. Find the guy in the fifth round who’ll produce.   - How many games did he play in? A pick doesn’t work if he doesn’t play. Finding a starter is the goal, but a player brings value if he’s a part of a rotation, too. Merely getting on the field matters, but more importantly …

– How many games did he start? Valuable backups and special teamers are usually replaceable. Was the pick a starter, and for how long? Reliability is almost everything, and if he’s starting in the NFL he’s doing something right. But …

– All-Pro and Pro Bowl recognition counts. Finding a Pro Bowl player in the first round is harder than it seems, but it’s a first round pick – he’s supposed to be good. Finding one in the fourth round is massive. More weight is given to the score for All-Pro seasons – those are the true difference-making stars.

Way-too-long preamble short, who nailed their picks?

Number of games played, starts, Pro Bowls, and All-Pro nods are counted and then weighed into where the player was selected. The later the pick that worked out, the higher the score.

Who has been the best at finding the most value in the NFL Draft?

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2020 NFL Draft: Best Value Draft Teams In 2016. Who Did The Best Job?