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It’s Thanksgiving time, as Week 13 of the 2024 NFL regular season kicks off with 3 games. We’ll pick a 3-way parlay for the holiday, and you’ll notice we changed the name of this column from “Winner winner chicken dinner” to, well, you see …
Last week we picked 2 of these 3 teams in our weekly parlay. The Detroit Lions crushed us as we backed the Indianapolis Colts catching 7.5 points, and the home side wasn’t able to cut the mustard in getting beat 24-6.
For the Green Bay Packers, QB Jordan Love and company, laying 5.5 points was no problem in a 38-10 home against the San Francisco 49ers and backup QB Brandon Allen at Lambeau Field. The Pack play another one at home Thanksgiving night when they host the Miami Dolphins (5-6).
The third leg of our “Winner winner chicken dinner” Week 12 parlay was the Under (47) in the Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks. In the drizzle, the 2 teams combined for just 22 points for the easy Under — Seattle won 16-6.
So, we hit 2 of our 3 legs, but unfortunately the Lions roared too loudly (against the Colts).
Now to Thanksgiving! After looking at BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving odds, here is our “Winner winner turkey dinner” NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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Winner winner turkey dinner NFL parlay
WEEK 13 — THANKSGIVING
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at 5:04 a.m. ET. All games ET.
Leg 1: UNDER 47.5 (-110) – Bears at Lions – 12:30 p.m. (CBS)
The Chicago Bears (4-7) meet the Lions (10-1) in the traditional early game to kick off the Thursday holiday slate.
Chicago leads the all-time series 105-78-5 against the NFC North rivals.
Detroit is also staring at a 7-game losing streak on Thanksgiving, falling 29-22 last season against the Packers. In 2021, the Bears picked up a 16-14 road win, and 3 of the Lions’ past 6 losses on Turkey Day have come against Chicago. The last time the Lions topped the Bears on Thanksgiving was 34-17 in 2014.
The Under is 2-1 in the past 3 games for the Lions on Thanksgiving against the Bears, but the Over is 4-1 in Detroit’s past 5 games on the holiday, so be careful. The Under is 4-2 in the past 6 meetings in this series, with the Under cashing in 2 of the past 3 meetings at Ford Field.
Chicago has cashed low in 4 of the past 5 games since Oct. 27, scoring 19 or fewer points in 4 of the previous 5 outings, while allowing 20 or fewer points in 3 of those contests.
For Detroit, the Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games, including the 24-6 win in Indy last week. The defense has allowed 12 points in the past 2 outings, and 14 or fewer points in 4 of the previous 5 contests.
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Leg 2: COWBOYS -3.5 (-105) vs. Giants – 4:30 p.m. (FOX)
The New York Giants (2-9) and the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) meet at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, in the middle game of the holiday schedule.
For the third consecutive game, the Giants will have a different starting quarterback. After QB Tommy Devito replaced QB Daniel Jones last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he apparently suffered an injury, and did not travel with the team. So, it’s up to QB Drew Lock to try to rally the troops.
Speaking of rallying troops, that’s what Dallas QB Cooper Rush did last week in Washington. He and the Cowboys had a wild fourth quarter, stunning the Commanders 34-26 to win outright as a 10.5-point underdog as the Over (44.5) cashed.
The Cowboys halted a 5-game non-cover streak, while the Over has cashed in 4 of the past 6 outings. The 34 points scored in D.C. was a season high, and it was accomplished by Rush, while helped out by 2 special teams TDs.
The Giants are on a 6-game losing streak, while also failing to cover in any of those outings. The Under is 4-2 in the skid, too, while the Under is 8-3 in 11 games this season.
The books have pushed this line way down, so we’ll look to the line instead. Dallas should be able to carry over its momentum from last week’s big win in D.C. to knock around the reeling G-Men.
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Leg 3: UNDER 47.5 (-105) — Dolphins at Packers – 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
The Dolphins (5-6) and Packers (8-3) meet in the not-so-frozen tundra at Lambeau Field in the night game.
The weather forecast shows a kickoff temperature of 26 degrees, but while it will be mostly cloudy, there is only a slight chance of flurries with a wind at 10-12 MPH. It will be interesting to see how the warm-blooded Dolphins adjust to the conditions.
The Dolphins have won 3 straight games to turn their season around, and they won their most recent prime-time game on the road 23-15 at the LA Rams Nov. 11.
Miami has cashed Over the total in 4 of the past 5 games, but this will easily be the chilliest game it has played all season. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in the past 4 games.
For Green Bay, it covered last week against San Francisco, but prior to that the Packers were 0-4 ATS. The Under is 5-2 in the past 7 games for Green Bay, too, including 3-1 in the past 4 at home.
With the icy conditions in Green Bay, we’ll look for Miami to be a little sluggish to start. Let’s go with the Under in the nightcap, although it won’t be surprising to see this game into the low 40’s, in terms of points.
PARLAY CARD
- UNDER 47.5 (-110): Lions vs. Bears
- COWBOYS -3.5 (-105) vs. Giants
- UNDER 47.5 (-105): Packers vs. Dolphins
Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $62.77 (payout = $72.77).
Try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator.
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