Tag: next gen stats

Russell Wilson’s pass to Courtland Sutton was longest ‘air distance’ TD in 2023

Russell Wilson’s TD pass to Courtland Sutton traveled 60.8 yards in the air, making it the longest TD by air distance this season.

In the third quarter of Sunday’s game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson threw a 46-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Courtland Sutton.

Wilson will only get 46 passing yards added to his totals for the throw, but his pass traveled 60.8 yards in the air. That represented the longest touchdown by air distance this season, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats page on Twitter/X.

It was an impressive throw, but after the game, Wilson deflected praise to his offensive line and to Sutton.

“I think, first of all, that play doesn’t happen without the line,” Wilson said. “I think I had about 35 seconds about back there on that play. I went left, went right, went through my reads probably one, two, three, four, five, back to one, and then back to Courtland again.

“I think Sutton obviously has been all special year. A tremendous work ethic, great leader, great teammate, great hands, can catch everything. He did a good job because he was going deep, kind of came back for a second and then he went deep again which was really great play by him and one hand in front of our fans is pretty special.”

The score marked the 10th time this season that Wilson and Sutton have connected for a touchdown. As has been the case for many of those scores, Wilson threw it up and gave Sutton a chance to make a play.

“I tried to give him a chance and he made a great play,” the QB said.

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Next Gen Stats reveal just how bad Commanders defense is in 2023

Washington’s defense allows far more big plays than any other NFL defense.

The Washington Commanders defense was supposed to be a team strength in 2023. In addition to bringing virtually everyone back and adding Emmanuel Forbes (first round) and Quan Martin (second round), the Commanders have arguably been the NFL’s worst defense in 2023.

Washington’s struggles led the franchise to trade defensive ends Chase Young and Montez Sweat before the NFL trade deadline. The Commanders didn’t want to trade Sweat, but the value (high second-round pick) proved too valuable to resist. Then, after Washington’s 45-10 loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, head coach Ron Rivera fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio and secondary coach Brent Vieselmeyer.

For Rivera, the timing couldn’t have been worse. He took over as Washington’s defensive play-caller the week before the Commanders hosted the Miami Dolphins — the NFL’s most explosive team.

As expected, Miami wide receiver Tyreek Hill had a huge day vs. Washington, catching five passes for 157 yards and two touchdowns. Hill could’ve had a lot more, but Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel took his foot off the gas in the second half.

Hill had touchdown receptions of 78 and 60 yards, highlighting the Commanders’ inability to limit explosive plays. Here’s this stat from Next Gen Stats, showing Washington’s struggles against vertical routes.

The Commanders have allowed 19 touchdowns on vertical routes this season — eight more than any other team — EIGHT more.

Why is Washington’s secondary so bad? There are several reasons. No team has as many communication breakdowns in the back end as the Commanders. Anytime there is a big play, Washington looks lost and clueless, with players looking at one another, unsure of their individual responsibilities on the play.

One conclusion to draw is the Commanders lost secondary coach Chris Harris in the offseason. Harris left for a job with Tennessee, and Washington replaced him with Vieselmeyer. The Commanders clearly took multiple steps back.

Is it a coaching issue or a talent issue?

It’s both, although we’ll lean more toward the coaching side. This is largely the same group from last season, and they are much worse.

You can probably expect the coaching and talent issue to be fixed beginning in January.

Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD

#Eagles’ Jordan Mailata ‘couldn’t believe’ #Bills coverage for Jalen Hurts winning TD:

The Buffalo Bills were left shocked by the Philadelphia Eagles’ game winning touchdown in overtime to win 37-34 in Week 12. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts took the snap and almost immediately took off running for the end zone from almost 20 yards out to win the game on a walk-off rushing touchdown.

And Bills fans will be wondering why the defense, who would naturally have a difficult time against a team with only one loss all season, would be in that coverage to allow the opposing quarterback the time and space to run into the end zone.

So too was Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata.

“[I] couldn’t believe the Bills gave [us] that look.” said Mailata to NFL Network’s national correspondent James Palmer following the contest.

What is the Eagles lineman referring to? NFL Next Gen Stats mapped Hurts win, which you can see here if you have recovered from Sunday’s difficult loss:

In that play, the Bills safety Micah Hyde is lined up on the left hashmark parallel with Hurts. Eagles running back D’Andre Swift, wearing No. 0, moves in motion to the right, and Hyde starts drifting toward Hurts right along with linebacker Terrel Bernard.

Since there is a one-on-one coverage on towards the left between Eagles receiver Devonta Smith and Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas, Hyde shifting over gave Hurts enough of a distance between them pre-snap to win the foot race.

Shifting over could be less damaging if Bernard fills that lane instead of shifting along with Hyde, or if linebacker Tyrel Dodson, who was tasked with blitzing Hurts, was able to close the gap created by Mailata and his left guard teammate Landon Dickerson quickly. That is the difficulty of playing an excellent team like the Eagles – mistakes compound into scores.

“Hurts made a number of plays with his feet … he got out a few times and made some trouble with his feet.” said Bills coach Sean McDermott after the game.

Mailata was the first to meet Eagles QB Hurts in the end zone to celebrate the winning touchdown with him.

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Packers WR Christian Watson had NFL’s fastest play of Week 12

Christian Watson hit 21.53 miles per hour on his 53-yard catch against the Lions on Thanksgiving.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson was the fastest ball-carrier of Week 12 (through games on Sunday) thanks to the deep shot that hit to open Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field.

Per Next Gen Stats, Watson hit 21.53 miles per hour on his 53-yard catch on the first play of the Packers’ 29-22 win over the Detroit Lions.

Watson ran a deep post on a play Matt LaFleur wanted to change pre-game. The Packers kept it in, and Jordan Love connected with Watson — who got a free release and flew by the coverage — for the big play to kick off the holiday showdown. The completion set up an opening drive touchdown for the Packers, who scored on their first two possessions, led 20-6 in the first half and eventually closed out the win late.

Watson finished the upset win with five catches, 94 yards and a 16-yard touchdown. It was a breakout performance for the second-year receiver, and it could have been so much more.

Watson’s speed on the 53-yard catch is currently the 18th fastest play in the NFL this season and the fourth fastest play by a Packers player, trailing Jayden Reed (32-yard TD in Week 11), Aaron Jones (35-yard TD in Week 1) and Keisean Nixon (51-yard kickoff return in Week 9). The Packers (4) and Miami Dolphins (9) are the only teams with three or more plays in the top 20 this season, per Next Gen Stats.

Last year, Watson hit his top speed — 21.72 miles per hour — on a 46-yard touchdown run against the Chicago Bears in Week 13.

Can Watson’s elite speed help fuel another Packers run to end the 2023 season?

Sam Howell is posting some impressive numbers in his second NFL season

Some impressive stuff from Sam Howell recently.

Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is a hot topic each week. Washington fans love to debate a quarterback’s future. If Howell performed well the week before, fans are ready to crown him. If he struggles, the other segment of the fan base is making images of Caleb Williams in a Commanders’ uniform.

What most fail to understand is that Howell has started 10 NFL games. There will be ups. There will be downs. Sometimes, that means a bad game; sometimes, that means a play that makes you ask yourself, “What the bleep was that?”

That’s every young quarterback.

The truth is, Howell can play. Is he Washington’s franchise quarterback? He has certainly earned the right to be in that conversation. Howell is improving each week, making multiple high-level throws; he is taking fewer sacks and continues to learn how to manipulate the pocket.

We’re halfway through the 2023 NFL season. There are some impressive data points available for Howell now.

Here are some of the best stats/numbers from Howell after Week 9.

WATCH: Commanders QB Sam Howell’s 4 most improbable completions from Week 9

Sam Howell had some “improbable” completions last week. Check them out.

Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell seems to have a knack for making some of the NFL’s more “improbable” completions each week.

According to Next Gen Stats, Howell had several of these throws in Washington’s Week 9 win over the New England Patriots. Here are Howell’s four most improbable throws from Sunday’s game.

This is some high-level stuff from Howell. Each of these four throws displays something different from the second-year quarterback. On the completion to Brown, you see Howell making an accurate throw on the move.

The throw to Terry McLaurin on the sideline was a terrific route from the star wideout and an even better throw from Howell while he was drifting back and under pressure.

The touchdown to Jahan Dotson was a dime. He laid it out in front of Dotson where the defender couldn’t make a play on the ball, allowing Dotson to run under it for the catch. Just a terrific throw.

What’s incredible is that Next Gen Stats didn’t even give us the completion probability on the following throw:

That was one of those throws where you cover your eyes and hope for the best. Howell showed a little “Mahomes magic” on that one to Byron Pringle.

Jarran Reed ranked second at nose tackle by Next Gen Stats

Perhaps the biggest surprise of all is Jarran Reed having the best year of his career by light years at nose tackle. 

The Seahawks are 5-2 heading into a huge road game today against the 6-2 Ravens. They wouldn’t have gotten here without some pleasant surprises on defense in the early part of the season. For one thing, Boye Mafe has blossomed into one of the NFL’s most potent edge rushers. For another, Jordyn Brooks has suddenly become one of the game’s most well-rounded off-ball linebackers. Perhaps the biggest surprise of all is Jarran Reed having the best year of his career by light years at nose tackle.

According to Next Gen Stats, Reed has been among the best in the league at that position this year. In fact, heading into Week 9 only Dexter Lawrence of the Giants is ranked higher.

Indredible work from Reed. While he’s been a solid starter his entire career he’s hasn’t made a Pro Bowl team yet. That will likely change this year if he keeps this up and he may even have a shot at second-team All-Pro. That remarkable development this late in Reed’s career is more proof that there’s something special about these 2023 Seahawks…

More Seahawks Wire stories

53-man roster tracker: Jason Peters elevated from practice squad

8 things to know about Seahawks and Ravens going into Week 9

Jahmyr Gibbs’ touchdown vs. Raiders made the (almost) impossible happen

Jahmyr Gibbs had less than a half-percent chance of scoring on his TD run against the Raiders according to Next Gen Stats

As Han Solo once said, “Never tell me the odds.”

Nobody told Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs that he had less than a one percent chance to score when he took a handoff from the Raiders’ 27-yard line in Detroit’s Week 8 win. Less than half of one percent, according to Next Gen Stats, based on play call, formation and the defensive alignment at the snap.

Next Gen Stats determined that the play had just a 0.4 percent chance of resulting in a touchdown when Gibbs got the ball. One sweet bounce cut to the right and instant acceleration away from several would-be tacklers proved that the odds mean nothing to the talented Lions rookie.

Zebra Technologies, the folks behind Next Gen Stats, added this context on the Gibbs touchdown run,

Jahmyr Gibbs had just a 0.4% probability of reaching the endzone on his 27-yard score. He gained +23 RYOE on the play. The width of the Lions offensive formation was 15.6 yards. The Raiders defense matched with a width of 19.6 yards.

The offensive line and receivers deserve credit for blocking the play well, and Gibbs cashed in the extremely unlikely lottery ticket of a touchdown.

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This key metric proves Patrick Mahomes is NFL’s best QB on third down

Next Gen Stats broke down #Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes’ success in third-and-long situations.

To say that Patrick Mahomes has played stellar football since taking over as the Kansas City Chiefs’ starting quarterback in 2018 would be an understatement of epic proportions.

He has not only delivered the team Super Bowl wins but has also achieved spectacular statistical success that places him entirely in a league of his own. Mahomes’ accomplishments on third down are well documented, but one analysis done by Next Gen Stats proves that when it comes to the most crucial situations, the reigning MVP is more likely to deliver than any other signal-caller in the league.

His average time to throw, throw past sticks percentage, yards per attempt, and pass EPA are all the best of any quarterback in the league in third and seven-or-more-yard situations.

While some of these marks could be attributed to Andy Reid’s offensive scheme, Mahomes’ ability to process, react, and deliver accurate balls to receivers on time is truly second to none in one of the game’s most difficult situations.

Lions defense had the best pass rush game of any NFL team in the last five years

The Detroit Lions defense recorded the highest QB pressure rate by any team in a game since 2018 in win over the Raiders

Aaron Glenn dialed up a fantastic game plan to attack Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo and the Las Vegas Raiders offense. The Detroit Lions defensive coordinator was in his bag all night long in Monday night’s 26-14 win.

Glenn’s unit, coming off a lousy game in the Week 7 loss in Baltimore, had one of the most dominating performances by any NFL defense in years. The pass rush was the best by any team since 2018 in terms of generating pressure.

From Next Gen Stats,

“The Lions defense generated pressure on 71.4% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s dropbacks, the highest pressure rate by a defense in a game since 2018. Five different Lions defenders generated 3+ pressures. Garoppolo was sacked 6 times on the night.”

Defensive tackle Alim McNeill had six of those pressures and two sacks. Linebacker Alex Anzalone added two sacks and five pressures of his own, the same number as DE Aidan Hutchinson.

Garoppolo threw for 126 yards in completing just 10 of his 21 pass attempts. That lousy rate also reflected very well on the Lions’ defense, this time the coverage.

“The Lions defense also allowed the lowest completion percentage over expected (-20.1%) in a game this season. Garoppolo finished 10 of 21 for 126 yards & INT.

🔹 Jimmy G Comp Pct: 47.6%
🔹 Avg Completion Probability: 67.7%
🔹 Comp Pct Over Expected: -20.1%”

After the game, head coach Dan Campbell gave Glenn the game ball. He earned it with one of the best single games by any Detroit defense in the Super Bowl era.

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